US Election 2020 (5 Viewers)

[hugh]

Very clear graphic showing possible paths to victory for each candidate.

Paths to US election victory: what Trump and Biden need to win

How the uncounted votes could fall and what that would mean for each of the candidates

www.theguardian.com

 

[hugh]

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He just needs Nevada and Michigan now if this is correct.

 

[Unicron]

He just needs Nevada and Michigan now if this is correct.

yup, the smallest possible electoral college win. If it hadn't been for Covid Trump would certainly have won easily.

 

[Lili Marlene]

I know the American population has expanded by millions since 2008, and the popular vote isn't much of a thing, but it's still mad that both candidates have already received more votes than Obama got in 2008. In 2016 Trump got less votes than Romney did when he lost in 2012.

 

[hugh]

According to The Guardian Biden has received more votes than any candidate ever.

 

[David Kronenbourg]

yup, the smallest possible electoral college win. If it hadn't been for Covid Trump would certainly have won easily.

Do you think?

 

[Lili Marlene]

I don't know if there's a very specific local reason for this result but worth noting

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[Lili Marlene]

Oh grow up Fintan

Fintan OâToole: At 2.23am, the US president launched an attempted coup

Trumpism is alive and kicking – and openly contemptuous of democracy

www.irishtimes.com

 

[Unicron]

Do you think?

Well, I feel that his mishandling of the situation has probably been a thing that pushed some votes away from him, and even with that it's been insanely close.

 

[GO]

I'm up for Trump he's better crack

 

[magicbastarder]

seems

Oh grow up Fintan

Fintan OâToole: At 2.23am, the US president launched an attempted coup

Trumpism is alive and kicking – and openly contemptuous of democracy

www.irishtimes.com

the presenter on RTE's drivetime used the same line on a trump administration official earlier, and had the legs cut out from under him.

 

[hugh]

By that I presume you mean “spouted a load of bullshit and ignored the question that was actually put to him”?

 

[magicbastarder]

no, his point was 'trump declares victory' does not actually mean 'trump has seized power illegally'.

 

[hydromancer]

 

[Denny Oubidoux]

Your man, the Trump supporter, on drivetime said that a coup is when you send in the military to seize power but I guess that's a military coup as opposed to whatever other type of coups there are. He didn't cut the legs from under anyone

 

[pete]

CNN saying Biden has Wisconsin.

 

[hugh]

That graphic thing I posted has disappeared and I’ve forgotten what winning Wisconsin means? He just needs Pennsylvania now or else Michigan and somewhere else?

There will be a recount in Wisconsin I think though ..

 

[hugh]

Also, I’m confused about Arizona. Guardian says Biden won it this morning but BBC were flipping around to show different scenarios about an hour ago.

 

[Lili Marlene]

Also, I’m confused about Arizona. Guardian says Biden won it this morning but BBC were flipping around to show different scenarios about an hour ago.

Apparently some places have retracted their Arizona prediction

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[flashback]

@flashback interesting, what do you think of this argument against that:

The Republicans are incredibly weak, their voter ceiling is very low and lowering every year. They are clearly unable to win an election without massive voter disenfranchisement, verging on straight up fraud. They're already collapsing with actual Republican Presidents openly voting for the other team and huge swathes of them spending millions trying to get the Democrats to win. If Trump loses all hell will break loose, they will fall apart and have to rebuild with a new coalition, probably one with the Latino vote (largely abandoned by the Democrats) and conservative leaning African Americans, and yeah, working class Americans in general.

The Dems may win, they may lose, but they will absolutely not move away from their model of appealing to the interests of the wealthy and educated, trying to peel off moderate Republicans, and telling anyone to the left of Nixon that there's nothing here for you. I've seen a lot of chatter about how every person of color in California is fuming about Kamala Harris, who is hated by anyone there who isn't rich, and especially POC. Could of course just be chatter.



edit: of course it might actually just be an argument in agreement with what you said.

Sorry, had to think about this for a bit.

I think I don't agree with this idea that the GOP are weak, and getting weaker over time. (Unfortunately.)

I think what's happened in the last... say 4(?) years is the outing / formalizing of the GOP as an authoritarian party. Trump could not have been much clearer with his Strong Man / Far right / Fascist brand. Previously the GOP have done dog whistle stuff, both for race and fascist ideologies. But Trump just cut through the bullshit, and openly said all these things, when his supporters loved him for "saying it like it is", they were right.

So that's what was put on offer yesterday:
Authoritarianism vrs Right of Center / Centrist Conservatism / others.

Roughly half of the voters picked Authoritarianism, and roughly half picked... well, I'd argue "Not Authoritarianism", more than anything else.

And that split, that desire for Strong Man politics, is what around half the market wants today.

I don't believe the forecasts about what's coming in the future being radically different. We can't even guess the polls accurately now, these future forecasts are guesses multiplied by guesses: almost worthless.

There's targeting demographics, and there's lots of things in play. But I think it comes down to a deep longing in the US for authoritarianism, across all demographics. It fits well with a lot of other things here.