Coronavirus: Better Call Sol - CORONAMANIA (8 Viewers)

[Unicron]

Yup. But given I've only spoken to him for 15 minutes in our whole lives I can hardly give him a bollocking. His dad isn't happy

Just heard that they've decided not to go. The right call

 

[hydromancer]

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[flashback]

Just to explain where I'm getting these numbers:

ann post posted up a series: (50, 61, 90, 119, 160)

To get the growth rate you use

1 + ($now - $num_yesterday)/ $num_yesterday

1 + 160-119 / 119 = 1.37
1 + 119-90 / 90 = 1.32
1 + 90-61 / 61 = 1.47
1 + 61-50 / 50 = 1.22

So let's say something like 1.3

meaning

mar 15 = 163 * 1.3 = 211

mar 16 = 211 * 1.3 = 275

mar 17 = 275 * 1.3 = 358

mar 18 = 358 * 1.3 = 465

 

[Unicron]

@ann_post

The growth rates of those last 4 days (running backwards in time) are : 1.37, 1.32, 1.48, 1.22.

Those growth rates are a tiny bit higher than normal. Probably not statistically significant though.

I was saying a few pages back, in countries that have had it before us there has been a spike around 2 weeks in. Possibly because that's the incubation period and it taking places a while to put measures in place to deal with things.

 

[flashback]

I was saying a few pages back, in countries that have had it before us there has been a spike around 2 weeks in. Possibly because that's the incubation period and it taking places a while to put measures in place to deal with things.

Missed that - sorry.

Hm. When you say incubation period being set to 14 days, how are you getting that number?

I'd have set it at 3-4 days, I dunno, I was under the impression that exposure->first symptom time was on the order of 3-4 days. I read something that the virus can live outside of humans for ages though. That's going to create a reservoir effect, and drive the number up a little bit, right?

Actually... ok. I guess there's more complicated factors going on. You're going to have a load of asymptomatic carriers spreading until behaviour changes are mandated and start to kick in.

That's going to take on the order of weeks. I guess I could understand that kick in the numbers. On the plus side the fact that the kick slows down, that it's an increase followed by a lower rate of increase, indicates that whatever actions that are being taken can be observed, which is good to know.

 

[magicbastarder]

it's absolute rumour and speculation, but i've seen a few comments on the number of people with lung issues since christmas, and there seems to be a growing number of people speculating it's been here for months.
i'm very sceptical though, the contagiousness of this would imply they'd have infected medical staff and this would have exploded here months ago.

 

[Unicron]

Missed that - sorry.

Hm. When you say incubation period being set to 14 days, how are you getting that number?

I'd have set it at 3-4 days, I dunno, I was under the impression that exposure->first symptom time was on the order of 3-4 days. I read something that the virus can live outside of humans for ages though. That's going to create a reservoir effect, and drive the number up a little bit, right?

Actually... ok. I guess there's more complicated factors going on. You're going to have a load of asymptomatic carriers spreading until behaviour changes are mandated and start to kick in.

That's going to take on the order of weeks. I guess I could understand that kick in the numbers. On the plus side the fact that the kick slows down, that it's an increase followed by a lower rate of increase, indicates that whatever actions that are being taken can be observed, which is good to know.

I may have been wrong about the incubation period. I was thinking in terms of the 14 day self isolation period and misunderstood.

Anyway, we're now 2 weeks in so hopefully the jumps will lower a little, relativley, after a few dramatic days

 

[hydromancer]

Missed that - sorry.

Hm. When you say incubation period being set to 14 days, how are you getting that number?

I'd have set it at 3-4 days, I dunno, I was under the impression that exposure->first symptom time was on the order of 3-4 days. I read something that the virus can live outside of humans for ages though. That's going to create a reservoir effect, and drive the number up a little bit, right?

Actually... ok. I guess there's more complicated factors going on. You're going to have a load of asymptomatic carriers spreading until behaviour changes are mandated and start to kick in.

That's going to take on the order of weeks. I guess I could understand that kick in the numbers. On the plus side the fact that the kick slows down, that it's an increase followed by a lower rate of increase, indicates that whatever actions that are being taken can be observed, which is good to know.

COVID-19 and Your Health

Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.

www.cdc.gov

 

[dudley]

We bought a trampoline for the kids today to try and help with exercise and fun. Kept me swearing and grunting in the garden in the rain for a few hours. Came back in went straight back to Twitter.

Those miserable hours out the back were the most relaxed and happy I’ve been in days....

 

[Unicron]

it's absolute rumour and speculation, but i've seen a few comments on the number of people with lung issues since christmas, and there seems to be a growing number of people speculating it's been here for months.
i'm very sceptical though, the contagiousness of this would imply they'd have infected medical staff and this would have exploded here months ago.

I've heard similar but I'm not sure about it. The medical people would have noticed an increased number of people dying from respiratory issues surely.

 

[hydromancer]

Checking the internet I the worst for this thing and I really don't need to read another what they had on the shelf in lidil story

 

[David Kronenbourg]

Checking the internet I the worst for this thing and I really don't need to read another what they had on the shelf in lidil story

True but I cannae stop! Put on the latest Star Wars film to distract myself. It’s not good

 

[ann post]

Minor unfamiliar irritation in the back of my throat since about half way through today.

Was planning to ride it out and follow the HSE procedures on Monday and not worry the family about till the doctors says whats what.

Just heard uncle travelling matt is trying to get back from foreign and cut his break short.

That'll be him moving back in with me when he arrives. Have had no contact with him since 6.5 days so he presently is in the clear.

Trying to figure the best course of action here, what do you think, thumped?

 

[David Kronenbourg]

Minor unfamiliar irritation in the back of my throat since about half way through today.

Was planning to ride it out and follow the HSE procedures on Monday and not worry the family about till the doctors says whats what.

Just heard uncle travelling matt is trying to get back from foreign and cut his break short.

That'll be him moving back in with me when he arrives. Have had no contact with him since 6.5 days so he presently is in the clear.

Trying to figure the best course of action here, what do you think, thumped?

Bolt your doors!

 

[David Kronenbourg]

Where’s he travelling from?

 

[ann post]

Where’s he travelling from?

Bloody bagdad.

 

[ann post]

Bolt your doors!

Its kinda his house.

Ok totally his.

 

[David Kronenbourg]

How big is your house?

 

[hermie]

Pretty good thanks. Still have a fever, and a headache, and a cough... but no worse either. It's still a weird dose.

How is everyone else doing? All well?

Starting to feel awful actually. Lethargic, headache, stiff neck, bit of a throat. No cough and not much of a fever though so hopefully not it. The kid seems to have a stomach bug. Could be catching what he has.

Can't believe they never tested you!

 

[David Kronenbourg]

Starting to feel awful actually. Lethargic, headache, stiff neck, bit of a throat. No cough and not much of a fever though so hopefully not it. The kid seems to have a stomach bug. Could be catching what he has.

Can't believe they never tested you!

I’m feeling a bit knackered, tickly throat thing, and a headache. I assume stress/tiredness (I’ve had a full on week at work) but I keep convincing myself it’s corona