Some reports are saying a UK minister didn't give a definite answer about leaving on the 31st October.
It's also worth noting that the reports about no deal preparation etc. is spooking the British public (e.g. they're setting aside £2 billion for it - when only a few months ago Theresa May told a nurse there was "no magic money tree" at a televised debate).
There's also a by-election today and if the Lib Dems win the seat, then Johnson's government will have a one seat majority. It'll also be significant because the Lib Dems are explicitly pro-Europe.
Johnson sacked about half of Theresa May's ministers - which is unprecedented. That means there are quite a lot of influential Tories, who want either a soft Brexit or no Brexit at all, and who hate Johnson. People like David Lidlington, Oliver Letwin, Dominic Grieve etc. may start working with pro-EU Labour people like Tom Watson and Kier Starmer... and with the Lib Dems (and Heidi Allen).
I'll put it this way... the UK Parliament is not going to make it easy for Johnson to pursue a No Deal Brexit. It's something he'll have to scrape over the line with.
You've basically got three groups in Westminster right now:
It's meant Corbyn is still sitting on the fence.
The Labour conference in September is going to be important. At that point we'll be quite along the road with No Deal preparation and things will be getting very, very hairy.
If Corbyn says he'll do a deal with the Remainers and if enough of the anti-Johnson Tories get on board, then we may see a vote of no confidence in the UK government and a general election being called.
This will probably split the Tories and Labour... and we're in to unprecedented (although very necessary) waters. Johnson will campaign to get the UK out. He'll ramp up the jingoism and anti-EU stuff. He'll get plenty of votes - and take loads from the Brexit Party. Labour will be in a big dilemma because they'll have to say to their metropolitan voters they want to remain, but their northern/midlands constituencies they want to leave - so they're kind of fucked.
It'll have to be a new coalition who will campaign to revoke Article 50.
If the EU stands firm on this... British people get really spooked after finding their pound is worthless after their holidays... and the reality of a No Deal hitting hard... and young people getting seriously pissed off with the whole thing...
It'll be a nationalist vs. pragmatist election...
Johnson probably couldn't care less because he'll come out being this British champion being held back by the EU bureaucrats.
On the other side, you'll have Corbyn supporters vs. centre-left people...
That's kind of what I think *could* happen... I don't think there's going to be another referendum about this.
It's also worth noting that the reports about no deal preparation etc. is spooking the British public (e.g. they're setting aside £2 billion for it - when only a few months ago Theresa May told a nurse there was "no magic money tree" at a televised debate).
There's also a by-election today and if the Lib Dems win the seat, then Johnson's government will have a one seat majority. It'll also be significant because the Lib Dems are explicitly pro-Europe.
Johnson sacked about half of Theresa May's ministers - which is unprecedented. That means there are quite a lot of influential Tories, who want either a soft Brexit or no Brexit at all, and who hate Johnson. People like David Lidlington, Oliver Letwin, Dominic Grieve etc. may start working with pro-EU Labour people like Tom Watson and Kier Starmer... and with the Lib Dems (and Heidi Allen).
I'll put it this way... the UK Parliament is not going to make it easy for Johnson to pursue a No Deal Brexit. It's something he'll have to scrape over the line with.
You've basically got three groups in Westminster right now:
- The Tory Brexiteers, the DUP and about 25/26 Labour MPs who want a No Deal Brexit.
- The Remainers... that's about a bunch of Labour MPs, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru.
- The Corybn supporters - about half the Labour party.
It's meant Corbyn is still sitting on the fence.
The Labour conference in September is going to be important. At that point we'll be quite along the road with No Deal preparation and things will be getting very, very hairy.
If Corbyn says he'll do a deal with the Remainers and if enough of the anti-Johnson Tories get on board, then we may see a vote of no confidence in the UK government and a general election being called.
This will probably split the Tories and Labour... and we're in to unprecedented (although very necessary) waters. Johnson will campaign to get the UK out. He'll ramp up the jingoism and anti-EU stuff. He'll get plenty of votes - and take loads from the Brexit Party. Labour will be in a big dilemma because they'll have to say to their metropolitan voters they want to remain, but their northern/midlands constituencies they want to leave - so they're kind of fucked.
It'll have to be a new coalition who will campaign to revoke Article 50.
If the EU stands firm on this... British people get really spooked after finding their pound is worthless after their holidays... and the reality of a No Deal hitting hard... and young people getting seriously pissed off with the whole thing...
It'll be a nationalist vs. pragmatist election...
Johnson probably couldn't care less because he'll come out being this British champion being held back by the EU bureaucrats.
On the other side, you'll have Corbyn supporters vs. centre-left people...
That's kind of what I think *could* happen... I don't think there's going to be another referendum about this.