BREXIT (13 Viewers)

[billygannon]

Some reports are saying a UK minister didn't give a definite answer about leaving on the 31st October.
It's also worth noting that the reports about no deal preparation etc. is spooking the British public (e.g. they're setting aside £2 billion for it - when only a few months ago Theresa May told a nurse there was "no magic money tree" at a televised debate).

There's also a by-election today and if the Lib Dems win the seat, then Johnson's government will have a one seat majority. It'll also be significant because the Lib Dems are explicitly pro-Europe.

Johnson sacked about half of Theresa May's ministers - which is unprecedented. That means there are quite a lot of influential Tories, who want either a soft Brexit or no Brexit at all, and who hate Johnson. People like David Lidlington, Oliver Letwin, Dominic Grieve etc. may start working with pro-EU Labour people like Tom Watson and Kier Starmer... and with the Lib Dems (and Heidi Allen).

I'll put it this way... the UK Parliament is not going to make it easy for Johnson to pursue a No Deal Brexit. It's something he'll have to scrape over the line with.

You've basically got three groups in Westminster right now:

• The Tory Brexiteers, the DUP and about 25/26 Labour MPs who want a No Deal Brexit.
• The Remainers... that's about a bunch of Labour MPs, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru.
• The Corybn supporters - about half the Labour party.

Corbyn has always been against the EU (in line with traditional, old-school Labour supporters). That said, he's against this No Deal scenario. Labour are also really worried about 50 seats in the middle and north of England - because they're afraid of losing these to the Brexit Party if Labour doesn't back Brexit.
It's meant Corbyn is still sitting on the fence.

The Labour conference in September is going to be important. At that point we'll be quite along the road with No Deal preparation and things will be getting very, very hairy.
If Corbyn says he'll do a deal with the Remainers and if enough of the anti-Johnson Tories get on board, then we may see a vote of no confidence in the UK government and a general election being called.
This will probably split the Tories and Labour... and we're in to unprecedented (although very necessary) waters. Johnson will campaign to get the UK out. He'll ramp up the jingoism and anti-EU stuff. He'll get plenty of votes - and take loads from the Brexit Party. Labour will be in a big dilemma because they'll have to say to their metropolitan voters they want to remain, but their northern/midlands constituencies they want to leave - so they're kind of fucked.

It'll have to be a new coalition who will campaign to revoke Article 50.
If the EU stands firm on this... British people get really spooked after finding their pound is worthless after their holidays... and the reality of a No Deal hitting hard... and young people getting seriously pissed off with the whole thing...
It'll be a nationalist vs. pragmatist election...
Johnson probably couldn't care less because he'll come out being this British champion being held back by the EU bureaucrats.
On the other side, you'll have Corbyn supporters vs. centre-left people...

That's kind of what I think *could* happen... I don't think there's going to be another referendum about this.

 

[David Kronenbourg]

OMG this is so fucked. I like Corbyn, his message and his policies but I also want to stay in the EU. He's been flaky on it but I get it because of what you said about the Labour Northern Leave seats. I'd never, ever vote Lib Dem - they are political porridge.

 

[Lili Marlene]

They'll also blame Ireland, don't forget that.

and we'll all join the IRA.

Maybe the best way to fight it is to try and very forcefully make the argument that true Brits vote Labour because they care about true Brits, which we all know the Tories don't. I dunno. Or they could get rid of Corbyn and reinstall Tony Blair and see if Noel Gallagher will turn up at number 10 again.

 

[David Kronenbourg]

They'll also blame Ireland, don't forget that.

and we'll all join the IRA.

Maybe the best way to fight it is to try and very forcefully make the argument that true Brits vote Labour because they care about true Brits, which we all know the Tories don't. I dunno. Or they could get rid of Corbyn and reinstall Tony Blair and see if Noel Gallagher will turn up at number 10 again.

This is what I will be saying when I go out canvassing for Labour in Essex in the upcoming election. I hope I don't get into a too many fights

 

[rettucs]

and we'll all join the IRA.

wait, what? you're not already in it? JEEEsus

 

[Lili Marlene]

wait, what? you're not already in it? JEEEsus

I got turfed out over my Mad 4 it Union Jack Oasis T-shirt. Apparently B-IRA-tpop isn't a thing.

 

[Unicron]

This is what I will be saying when I go out canvassing for Labour in Essex in the upcoming election. I hope I don't get into a too many fights

Hope you're only going to Thurrock.

 

[David Kronenbourg]

Hope you're only going to Thurrock.

Yep, the tories have a majority over labour of just 345 - but it's a heavily leave voting area. UKIP did well there in 2015

 

[Unicron]

Yep, the tories have a majority over labour of just 345 - but it's a heavily leave voting area. UKIP did well there in 2015

I had a look at the essex constituencies before posting. Everyhere else seems like a very safe Tory seat, you'd likely be wasting your time.

 

[David Kronenbourg]

I had a look at the essex constituencies before posting. Everyhere else seems like a very safe Tory seat, you'd likely be wasting your time.

Yeah, my gf has ties with Thurrock so we'll be out knocking on doors

 

[billygannon]

There's talk that Dominic Cummings (the guy Benedict Cumbersnatch played in the Brexit drama last year) has been getting the government ministers to prepare for a budget on October 7th - about three weeks before the Brexit date.

This will be a "no deal" budget which I reckon will be voted down - meaning a general election.

 

[David Kronenbourg]

There's talk that Dominic Cummings (the guy Benedict Cumbersnatch played in the Brexit drama last year) has been getting the government ministers to prepare for a budget on October 7th - about three weeks before the Brexit date.

This will be a "no deal" budget which I reckon will be voted down - meaning a general election.

Do you believe he’s an evil genius as he’s being portrayed in the British media or just a chancer who accidentally won the leave vote?

 

[Unicron]

There's talk that Dominic Cummings (the guy Benedict Cumbersnatch played in the Brexit drama last year) has been getting the government ministers to prepare for a budget on October 7th - about three weeks before the Brexit date.

This will be a "no deal" budget which I reckon will be voted down - meaning a general election.

This week's talking point "undemocratic backstop" is his doing yes?

 

[billygannon]

Do you believe he’s an evil genius as he’s being portrayed in the British media or just a chancer who accidentally won the leave vote?

He's a gigantic dickhead.

And Johnson will fuck him over too. Johnson is possibly the worst person on Earth.

 

[GARYXKNIFEDX]

Qwertee : Limited Edition Cheap Daily T Shirts | Gone in 24 Hours | T-shirt Only £9/€11/$12 | Cool Graphic Funny Tee Shirts

www.qwertee.com

 

[Lili Marlene]

 

[rettucs]

@pete we need an up the rah emoji for liking posts

 

[Lili Marlene]

Has anyone got access to this full article? I'm loving it already:

Whatever faults the British may have, they understand independence and freedom.

Bought by Brussels, little Ireland's ridiculous leaders have landed it in a Brexit crisis

This is tough right now, being a proud and loyal British subject who has lived in, and loved, Ireland for more than 60 years.

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Squiggle]

Has anyone got access to this full article? I'm loving it already:

Whatever faults the British may have, they understand independence and freedom.

Bought by Brussels, little Ireland's ridiculous leaders have landed it in a Brexit crisis

This is tough right now, being a proud and loyal British subject who has lived in, and loved, Ireland for more than 60 years.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Is it meant to be Satirical?

 

[Unicron]

Has anyone got access to this full article? I'm loving it already:

Whatever faults the British may have, they understand independence and freedom.

Bought by Brussels, little Ireland's ridiculous leaders have landed it in a Brexit crisis

This is tough right now, being a proud and loyal British subject who has lived in, and loved, Ireland for more than 60 years.

www.telegraph.co.uk

This is tough right now, being a proud and loyal British subject who has lived in, and loved, Ireland for more than 60 years. What is tough is watching the ridiculous behaviour of the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and his foreign minister, Simon Coveney, trying to destroy, like wilful children, relations with an ancient and friendly neighbour.
Whatever faults the British may have, they understand independence and freedom. I can understand why they mock the ridiculous behaviour of these two men. Varadkar and Coveney are both members of Fine Gael, a party that has its roots in the fight 100 years ago to secure independence and freedom for Ireland. Yet now here they are trying to block the UK’s path to the same independence and freedom.
This is painful and embarrassing stuff.
It was bad enough these past months having to witness the humiliations of the journeys to Brussels of Prime Minister Theresa May. Begging at the Commission and Council brought her nothing. One cannot be surprised that Boris Johnson is so far refusing to go to Brussels. He is smart enough not to hazard a rerun of Theresa May’s ill-judged visits to the groups that became her tormentors.
The European Parliament had a brief walk-on part in the humiliations – to approve the draft agreement. They seemed from time to time to be sniggering behind their hands at this unfortunate woman who was betrayed on all sides.

What bothers me most is that the political leadership of Ireland is happy to be the cheerleader for these tormentors. Yet their cheerleading operates in terms that make no sense at all. Varadkar and Coveney are increasingly uncertain fools. Their desire to be players in a game they don’t understand is causing their clothing to unravel and their minds to lose their way.
Their determination to work against the UK’s desire for a smooth and prosperous Brexit will in the end leave Ireland diplomatically estranged from its most important trade and political partner. With some satisfaction I see that public opinion in Ireland is at last questioning their policies.
Brussels is using the spaniel-like euro-eagerness of the Irish government for its own ends. Once Brussels gets what it wants, it will dump all interest in Irish concerns. Spoiler alert for Varadkar: once Brexit is settled, stand by for Brussels to undermine the Irish corporate tax rates which international investors find so alluring.
What Varadkar and Coveney are doing is helping Brussels to block the path for the UK government to implement the democratic decision of the British people to leave the EU. There was a referendum. The people gave their decision. And yet a Dublin government which brags that it is republican and democratic denigrates this decision as populism. It colludes with the EU to try to have the decision dismissed and resisted.

If any of you have followed Irish relations with the EU, you will find this familiar. Ireland is famous for having two referendums on two European treaties, and both times being forced to vote again until they came up with the “right” answer. Until the British understand why and how that happened, they will not understand this euro-spaniel political position of the Irish government.
In 2008 an extraordinary act of political collaboration took place. The three main political parties in Ireland, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour -- the first two with a history of butchery against each other in a civil war, the third a remnant of mid-century urban socialism -- did something unnatural: they came together in a pact. They did so in order to support the Lisbon Treaty, a camouflaged EU constitution which would dissolve their republic into a new supranational state.
To which the ordinary people said, “Not so fast.” The voters had form in rejecting European treaties. In 2001 they had rejected the Nice Treaty. Now they rejected the Lisbon Treaty. You know the rest. The three-party pact, directed by the European Commission, forced the Irish people to vote again until they voted Yes.
To secure a Yes to Lisbon Treaty in a second referendum Brussels introduced its own master plan. Very significant sums of money were made available to the three-party pact that had originally sworn against a re-run. The distributed cash ratio was thought to be 20-to-one, favouring those who sided with the European Union in ensuring that Ireland, notwithstanding its published decision not to re-run the Lisbon Treaty, would in fact do so.

Brussels produce a document that was ostensibly designed to put both sides of the case, for and against ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. The Irish Government, in an act of obstruction, failed to distribute it. The people of Ireland went to vote not knowing on what they were voting, knowing only that a disproportionate amount of money was being spent to bring about a pro-EU result without knowing what this would mean.
At the time I wrote, “The European Commission has gained so much power and has passed a tilt point, going from undemocratic to being actively anti-democratic.”
The Lisbon Treaty, which no Irish politician from that day to this has read, undermined and destroyed the Irish Constitution. Bunreacht na hÉireann is now no more than a worthless gathering of sad memories.
If you want to understand Varadkar and Coveney’s behaviour, the Lisbon sell-out is the key. Irish politicians are honest: when they are bought, they stay bought.
These uncertain fools have now led Ireland to be engulfed in a crisis as Boris Johnson, the new Prime Minister, seeks to lead Britain out of the EU either before or after an election.
Yet again we face a crisis of democracy, with little Ireland and the huge EU refusing to recognise the democratic decision of the United Kingdom to leave the European Union. The ridiculous country in which I live is helping Europe in this abuse.
Bruce Arnold is an English journalist who has lived in Ireland since 1957. He has worked for the main Irish newspapers based in Dublin, The Irish Times, The Irish Press and the Sunday Independent. He also acted as Dublin correspondent of The Guardian. He was awarded an OBE in 2003 “for services to Irish journalism and Anglo-Irish relations"