The Russian invasion of Ukraine (1 Viewer)

[Cormcolash]

I wonder who it'd be that'd supply the arms and train him in its use.

 

[hydromancer]

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[flashback]

It was Russia's 'we haven't gone away, you know', moment

They've also not gone away.

Russia has amassed up to 190,000 troops on Ukraine borders, US warns

Country says Russia undertaking the ‘biggest mobilisation of troops since the second world war’

www.theguardian.com

They're shelling the place, look like they've run a false flag operation.

 

[seanc]

How many troops is enough troops to have a freak out? Because the number seems to keep increasing in a way that doesn't make much difference to the whole story.

 

[flashback]

How many troops is enough troops to have a freak out? Because the number seems to keep increasing in a way that doesn't make much difference to the whole story.

They're kicking off nuclear weapons drills now, which is sort of piss taking.

I guess there's two options.

They want to fuck people off and remind Ukraine they can invade if they feel like it.
Or they're going to invade Ukraine.

Presumably they're not going to invade Ukraine, because that might end up messing with too many bank accounts. So, like everyone else here keeps saying, presumably he's taking the piss and kicking off a bitta cold war for the lads.

I dunno. The Kims have their yearly look at me histrionics, and people generally look at them. Putin needed to wave his cock around and have everyone think it was a very large cock indeed? I'm honestly starting to think things are getting dangerous.
A couple more false flags, one drunk general, one fuck up...

 

[taubstumm]

if he does invade ukraine, he’s guaranteeing himself an unwinnable quagmire
if he doesn’t invade ukraine, he’s conceding it was all a bluff — he burns all his credibility, and no one will ever take him seriously again in any future crisis, and he comes out with nothing

so maybe he splits the difference and semi-invades, by evacuating all the civilians out of donetsk/luhansk, and replacing them with militias, and then have the russian army proper just sit back and do all the logistics from afar?

I mean he has to do *something*, right?

 

[flashback]

if he does invade ukraine, he’s guaranteeing himself an unwinnable quagmire
if he doesn’t invade ukraine, he’s conceding it was all a bluff — he burns all his credibility, and no one will ever take him seriously again in any future crisis, and he comes out with nothing

so maybe he splits the difference and semi-invades, by evacuating all the civilians out of donetsk/luhansk, and replacing them with militias, and then have the russian army proper just sit back and do all the logistics from afar?

I mean he has to do *something*, right?

I don't think he's going to get away with a semi (heh (see dick allegory above)) invasion.

Western media is looking, and they're going to call it. That's going to force people's hands, because there's no way to sugarcoat (another) invasion. Even if it's a small one. If things kick off all bets are off, and escalations will happen.

I keep going back to the money bit. Because all things are related to money, always, right?
Putin has a lot of money, fair enough. But does he control all of the money in Russia? Or do the oligarchs control their money?
You can be fairly sure the oligarchs care quite a lot about holding onto their money. So if they see that crumbling, could they pull rank? Or are they a bunch of pissheads and Putin still absolutely unassailable as a leader?

A lot of people saying Putin's doing the 17 dimensional chess bit, but let's say he's not. He's just got everyone staring down the barrel and waiting for someone to blink. I don't think he expected push back, he expected people to blink, but they aren't.

So, what does he go home with? I've said it before, I think he might have already stepped over the line (in the sense that no matter what happens now, he's marked as something that cannot be ignored, both from within Russia and outside.)

The cunt couldn't have just put a subservient prick in charge and fucked off to one of his Dachas to retire with a bunch of hookers, no?

 

[Cornu Ammonis]

if he doesn’t invade ukraine, he’s conceding it was all a bluff — he burns all his credibility, and no one will ever take him seriously again in any future crisis, and he comes out with nothing

The problem with a nuclear power with a massive army is that even if you know they’re bluffing, you can never take that chance. He could bluff every 6 months and every 6 months that threat of WW3 will always carry weight.

 

[rettucs]

hes not popular around these parts I'm sure but I agree with this article by Fintan O'Toole

Fintan O’Toole: Putin bad and Nato expansion good is not a binary we have to accept

Nato’s eastward expansion broke the West’s promises and played on Russia’s fears

www.irishtimes.com

 

[magicbastarder]

FOT was challenged on twitter about his claim that russia was offered reassurances; he's cited this to support that:

Deal or No Deal? The End of the Cold War and the U.S. Offer to Limit NATO Expansion

During the 1990 German reunification negotiations, did the United States promise the Soviet Union that it would not expand NATO into Eastern Europe? Although no written agreement exists, archival materials reveal that U.S. officials did indeed offer the Soviets informal non-expansion assurances...

www.belfercenter.org

 

[Cormcolash]

Seems to me like Putin's already won and just needs to do nothing now. He can sit around and do fuck all and just call the Western media etc hysterical, yanks and co. look stupid for shouting about stuff that never happened, and questions start being asked again about US lies when it comes to invading countries.

 

[taubstumm]

decent overview here of the nord stream 2 situation

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[JohnnyRaz]

what's the most likely outcome short of actual war do folks think?

Actual war would be a mess potentially for Russia, but could they roll into the eastern 'autonomous regions' and get away with it ala Crimea?

Or will there be a fudge at the forthcoming summit where Ukraine's greater integration into EU/NATO gets quietly shelved?

economic sanctions are meaningless while Europe still needs their gas.

 

[therealjohnny]

I watched Threads again last night. Possibly subconsciously related..

 

[JohnnyRaz]

I watched Threads again last night. Possibly subconsciously related..

retro doom porn

 

[Cormcolash]

I think the most likely outcome is Ukraine stepping away from the NATO plan probably

 

[Lili Marlene]

hes not popular around these parts I'm sure but I agree with this article by Fintan O'Toole

Fintan O’Toole: Putin bad and Nato expansion good is not a binary we have to accept

Nato’s eastward expansion broke the West’s promises and played on Russia’s fears

www.irishtimes.com

Fintan's about as good as it gets in the Irish media, I like em. I'd agree with that article mostly.


Anyway, I installed the RT app on my phone and it's kind of fun switching from that to, like, the New York Times when following this.

 

[nuke terrorist]

For fucks sake Vlad get to the point and stop rambling

 

[Cormcolash]

I think the point is "Donetsk and Luhansk don't want to be in Ukraine any more, so if you try and say they are we're ready to fuck you up"

 

[nuke terrorist]

The speech shows the complicated history of the area. He slagged off the USSR a few times despite being part of the KGB until 1991.
Still it's mostly NATO and the EU fault for getting involved in things they know nothing about in 2014 (again).
Vlad, Boris, Joe B and the rest of 'em never served in an armed conflict - what a bunch of wimps