General Election 24th May (2 Viewers)

[classic seanc]

You don't need a polling card to vote.

Aye, but I changed constituency, so it's good to know that everything got sorted out in time for thurs

does that mean he called you old?

Yeah, I spose that's cool in a way. Old (surname), grizzled prospector.

 

[JohnnyRaz]

In the meantime, on a different matter, I'm wondering about election canvasser etiquette. The Shinners are currently on patrol on my road, but my balaclava is in the wash, so I've nothing to wear to greet them. The only tricolour I've got handy is that leaflet from Noel Ivory. Would it be appropriate for me to sellotape it to my mushy white belly? Or is it better with a couple of eyeholes cut out, worn like I'm at some kind of Provo Masquerade Ball?

you should have enough time to give yourself a homemade 'eire 32' tatoo on your left breast.

 

[Wavioli]

I got my polling card today, but my name is wrong on it, what do I do?

 

[classic seanc]

I got my polling card today, but my name is wrong on it, what do I do?

Whats wrong? Was there a fada missing? Should I be worried too?

 

[Wavioli]

no, they totally mis-spelled my name.

I rang the local authority, they said if I bring a bill with my proper name on it I should be ok.

the chances of 2 Ralphs living in the same house are slim at best.

 

[jane]

you should have enough time to give yourself a homemade 'eire 32' tatoo on your left breast.

But even if I've already got '26+6=1' on the right nork? Is that not kind of....overkill?

 

[carbide]

But even if I've already got '26+6=1' on the right nork? Is that not kind of....overkill?

i worry a little that it took me a few reads to stop seeing that as "the correct nork".

our street was swarming with canvassers this evening, so noisy i could hear them through closed windows. i've been studying at home and answering the door to most of them for the last while, and tonight the canvassers for the candidate i'm going to vote for called, which was nice because i didn't have to keep lying to be polite.

has there been any discussion about the idea of voting against your actual preference with strategic intent? i keep running across discussion of it, but feel pretty strongly that since this is my only opportunity to exercise my preference and represent my opinions, i can only vote for the candidate(s) i would genuinely like to see in office. and also that voting for a christian democrat party makes me as queasy as the idea of seeing the same smug fuckers get back in again.

 

[classic seanc]

OH MY GOD IT'S TOMORROW!!

 

[MDR]

no, they totally mis-spelled my name.

I rang the local authority, they said if I bring a bill with my proper name on it I should be ok.

the chances of 2 Ralphs living in the same house are slim at best.

You don't even need that card to vote. There's probably some number on it which will help them find you on the register and direct you to the right 'voting table'. Just bring i.d. and you're laughing.

 

[magicbastarder]

according to my polling card, the polling station is in "abra".

 

[MDR]

Ok - let's start predictions.

I say that neither FF/PD nor FG/Lab/green gets a majority; a handful of independents will back up one or either side to elect a taoiseach. PDs and FF to lose about 8 seats between them; FG and Labour to stay static; gains for SF and Greens.

 

[It Will Never Last]

FF/SF coalition.

You heard it here first.

 

[CitySickness]

has there been any discussion about the idea of voting against your actual preference with strategic intent?

I'm looking at this, unsure of how best to go about it though. I'm in Dun Laoghaire, and I'd dearly love to see FF and the PDs lose a seat here. Hanafin is pretty unshakeable, hopefully O'Malley is on the way out. FG have fielded too many candidates here though, which will probably cost them dearly.

 

[classic seanc]

EDIT: I don't know.

 

[magicbastarder]

i tend to vote strategically at the general election anyway; so patricia mckenna will be getting some preference from me, even though she's a bit bonkers.

 

[Wavioli]

You don't even need that card to vote. There's probably some number on it which will help them find you on the register and direct you to the right 'voting table'. Just bring i.d. and you're laughing.

yes I realise that, but my name was wrong on it- therefore its wrong on the polling list. should be ok though.

Interestingly enough I'm on the list for where I used to live too, so I actually get two votes

 

[MDR]

The irish Times predicts as follows (I think it's overly optimistic about the swing from FF/PD to the opposition):

The estimates, made at various stages in a roller-coaster campaign, would put Fianna Fáil at 67 seats, down from 79 in the current Dáil, with the PDs and Independents also having dramatic falls in support - the PDs at three (from eight) and the Independents at eight (from 14).
Fine Gael is predicted to do well, boosting its number of seats to 47 from 32, while Labour just about holds its own on 22 (up one). The Greens and Sinn Féin each gain four, to 10 and nine, respectively.

 

[MDR]

Irish Times advice on tactical voting:

Getting the results you want: PR enables the Irish voter to influence three key issues, writes Stephen Collins, Political Editor
One of the beauties of the Irish PR system is that it allows people to vote tactically for the government they want to see in power, the parties they favour and the individuals they like.
The system also allows the voter to indicate a preference between the candidates or parties he doesn't like, in terms of which he dislikes the most.
As regards government formation the tactical voting choice is relatively simple. Fianna Fáil supporters should vote for their own party's candidates first and continue their next preference to the Progressive Democrats, if they want to see the current Government returned to office.
PD voters looking for the same outcome should do the same thing in reverse, voting first for their own party and continuing their preferences to Fianna Fáil. If they want to vote PD but really want a change of government, they should continue their preferences for another party.
The same applies to Fianna Fáil voters who would like to see their party in coalition with a party like Labour or the Greens instead of the PDs.
Voters who want a change of government as a top priority should vote for Fine Gael and Labour, the order depending on which party they favour most. Supporters of each party should continue their preferences to the other to maximise the chances of both parties gaining seats.
After voting for the alternative alliance, anti-Government voters should then transfer to other potential coalition partners. The Greens are the obvious choice, given that the party has expressed its preference for the alternative FG-Labour alliance.
The Greens stand to pick up transfers from both of the alternative government blocks because they have not ruled out any form of coalition after the election, including coalition with Sinn Féin. The other side of the coin, though, is that by refusing to rule out a coalition deal with Fianna Fáil, the Greens may have lost some potential first preferences to Fine Gael and Labour.
Sinn Féin voters should consider which of the contending blocs they would prefer to see in power and transfer their votes accordingly. The same applies to supporters of smaller parties like the Socialists or Independents.
For all the talk about transfers, the first preference vote is still by far the most important on most ballot papers. In the region of half of all votes cast tomorrow will not pass beyond the number 1, because the candidate who receives them will neither have a quota nor be eliminated.
Where the transfers and tactical voting really come into play is when candidates are eliminated. It generally makes sense for party supporters to give their weaker candidates the number 1 and to transfer on to the stronger.
That can result in unexpected seat gains although it can also backfire and result in senior people losing their seats as Brian Lenihan did in Roscommon in 1973. Broadly speaking, though, the tactic usually works.
Dublin Central provides a classic example of tactical voting in the last election. In a disastrous election for Fine Gael the late Jim Mitchell was eliminated on the fourth count with 4,268 votes.
At that stage Nicky Kehoe of Sinn Féin was 400 votes ahead of the second Fianna Fáil candidate,Dermot Fitzpatrick, and almost all the pundits predicted he would win the seat.
When Mr Mitchell was eliminated 2,842 of his votes transferred to Labour's Joe Costello, ensuring that the Labour TD held his seat. Some 517 of them went to Dr Fitzpatrick and 331 went to Mr Kehoe. That helped to narrow the Sinn Féin candidate's lead but it was on the next count that the decisive transfer took place.
That count involved the distribution of Mr Costello's surplus of 1,063 votes. As Mr Mitchell's votes had brought him over the quota, the actual surplus distributed came from the Fine Gael candidate's bundle of votes and not from the Labour man's original number 1s. Dr Fitzpatrick got 704 votes from the surplus while Mr Keogh got 359. The two-to-one margin in favour of the Fianna Fáil candidate gave him the seat by less than 100 votes.
This was an example of where Fine Gael voters were able to first ensure a Labour ally got the seat when their candidate was knocked out and were also able to decide whether Fianna Fáil or Sinn Féin got the final seat. It was tactical voting at its best.

 

[classic seanc]

I hope it works out in such a way that someone has to get the Greens on their side

 

[IFF]

I hope it works out in such a way that someone has to get the Greens on their side

and in such a way that one of the green td's is mark dearey