General Election 24th May (1 Viewer)

Do the PDs need a minimum of seats to go into government with FF again or can they get in even with just one seat?

I can just about bear FF getting in again. Just about. but I'll go out of my mind if the PDs get in. I FUCKING HATE THEM.

I think that the last Govt involved 80 FF and 8 PDs (83 is a majority). FF are expected to lose up to 10 seats, and the PDs 5, so that option doesn't look like a runner on its own again as they would be about 10 short, hence all the talk of Labour coming on board with 20+ seats.

FG and Labour might have about 70 between them which will leave them some way short, even if the greens come in (Greens have 6 or so at the moment and would need to double that). As the PDs are rabidly anti-green, it looks very unlikely that the PDs will be in Govt again; in fact, if they go down to only 3 seats as predicted it could be the beginning of the end for them.

It's going to be a tight one. I'm off tomorrow and will be in my pyjamas watching the results all day.
 
this is newstalk's prediction (taken from politics.ie). I think they have my own constituency wrong (Dublin Nth East) - I predict 1FF, 1 Lab and 1 SF

Carlow-Kilkenny (5) – 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 GREEN
* Cavan-Monaghan (5) – 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND, & CEANN COMHAIRLE FF
* Clare (4) – 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND
* Cork East (4) – 2 FF, 2 FG
* Cork North Central (4) – 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB
* Cork North West (3) – 2 FG, 1 FF
* Cork South Central (5) – 2 FF, 2FG, 1 GREEN
* Cork South West (3) – 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB
* Donegal North East (3) – 2 FF, 1 SF
* Donegal South West (3) – 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
* Dublin Central (4) – 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 LAB, 1 IND
* Dublin Mid West (4) – 1 FF, 1 GREEN, 1 FG, 1 LAB
* Dublin North (4) – 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SOCIALIST, 1 GREEN
* Dublin North Central (3) – 1 FG, 2 FF
* Dublin North East (3) – 1 FF, 1 LAB, 1 SF
* Dublin North West (3) 2 FF, 1 SF
* Dublin South (5) 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 GREEN
* Dublin South Central (5) – 2 FF, 1 SF, 1 LAB, 1 FG
* Dublin South East (4) – 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB, 1 GREEN
* Dublin South West (4) 1 LAB, 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF
* Dublin West (3) – 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SOCIALIST
* Dún Laoghaire (5) – 2 FF, 1 LAB, 1 GREEN, 1 FG
* Galway East (4) – 3 FF, 1 FG
* Galway West (5) – 2 FF, 1 LAB, 1 GREEN, 1 FG
* Kerry North (3) – 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
* Kerry South (3) – 2 FF, 1 IND
* Kildare North (4) 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND, 1 LAB
* Kildare South (3) – 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB
* Laois-Offaly (5) – 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 PD
* Limerick East (5) – 2 FG, 2 FF, 1 LAB
* Limerick West (3) – 2 FG, 1 FF
* Longford-Westmeath (4) - 2 FF, 1 LAB, 1 FG
* Louth (4) - 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF
* Mayo (5) - 2 FG, 2 IND, 1 FF
* Meath East (3) – 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB
* Meath West (3) – 2 FF, 1 FG
* Roscommon-South Leitrim (3) – 2 FF, 1 FG
* Sligo-North Leitrim (3) – 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
* Tipperary North (3) – 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND
* Tipperary South (3) – 1 FF, 1 FF, 1 LAB
* Waterford (4) – 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB
* Wexford (5) – 2 FG, 2 FF, 1 LAB
* Wicklow (5) – 2 LAB, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 GREEN



TOTAL:

FF – 66

FG – 49

LAB – 20

SF – 11

GREEN – 9

SOCIALIST - 2

PD – 1

IND. - 8
 
2 of my favourite pledges from the PD manifesto:

Relocate Dublin Port to North County Dublin and build a skyscraper city on the site.
20050531.jpg

OMGZ it'll be just like in Star Wars!!1!

Institute a mobile phone- and drug-free regime in our prisons.
Remember, they LOOK IN YOUR ASS in prison and yet they're still awash with drugs. How do you plan to top ass-inspections for security? Time for your on-the-spot chest cavity search, #3871B, hand me the rib-spreader...
 
I think newstalk has my constituancy spot on, fucking boring campaign, the only question is which of the FF candidates pick up the new seat. I may give the one I find less annoying my 5 or 6.

My big hope for the election (aside from neither the PD's or the Shinners being in power), bye bye Healy-Rae.
 
went to vote before work. Deserted polling station.

just gave a 1 and 2 this time. Green, Labour.

the PD candidate here is a genuinely nice woman but is seriously misguided in her choice of party. Hope they get no seats and FF get trounced. Probably wishful thinking though.

'We've never had it so good'

most inane comment ever.

pricks.

pricks.

pricks.

pricks.

pricks.
 
pity you can't put minus votes onto your polling card.. I only voted 1 and 2 as well. there were three ff candiadaes and three fg candidates, none of whom I voted for. the rest of the remainder were bizarre weirdo independents that I've never heard of before. loads of 'em. one guy was a 911 conspiracy head... one of them was a builder!
 
i voted for that squinty eyed fucker ahead of bertie, anyway. i voted for everyone on the ballot paper, bar FF, PD (which came as a surprise to me, there was no publicity about him at all) and SF.

yeah, i'm still torn, but i don't think i'll be going beyond my first preference this time.
 
You're not really taking advantage of our voting system if you just put your first preference.

yes i am. i have been debating between spoiling and voting, and there is only one candidate available to me who i could stomach having anything to do with getting into government. giving my mandate to someone i don't want to see elected isn't taking advantage of the system either.
 
yes i am. i have been debating between spoiling and voting, and there is only one candidate available to me who i could stomach having anything to do with getting into government. giving my mandate to someone i don't want to see elected isn't taking advantage of the system either.

I understand, but if your vote isn't transferred according to your preference, you're letting someone else make the decision for you. I went down to 7 preferences, the majority of whom make me feel kinda nauseous - but some less nauseous than others.
 
I understand, but if your vote isn't transferred according to your preference, you're letting someone else make the decision for you. I went down to 7 preferences, the majority of whom make me feel kinda nauseous - but some less nauseous than others.

i see that side of it as well. it's just the idea of [whoever] getting in and at any point thinking, "11000 people voted for me and my policies!" when any number of those votes came from people who'd, at least metaphorically, slam the door in their face, it's all bullshit. but i guess it is all bullshit, therein being the problem.
 
i see that side of it as well. it's just the idea of [whoever] getting in and at any point thinking, "11000 people voted for me and my policies!" when any number of those votes came from people who'd, at least metaphorically, slam the door in their face, it's all bullshit. but i guess it is all bullshit, therein being the problem.

It's all we've got at the moment! Also, this election is looking like it's far more likely to be swung by transfers than by first preferences.

I reckon it's best to maximise your influence as best you can, but I'd much rather see you vote one pref only than spoil it - whichever way you're voting.
 
Newstalk is saying that McDowell is getting the boot? Don't think that's gonna happen.
I think
FF
PD
Lab OR SF
Green

I think there's a good chance of FG getting a seat back there (former Garret Fitzgerald territory) and there's a good chance of SF ousting McDowell. I'd say McDowell's chances are about fifty-fifty - if he gets through it will be on the last count.

Harney has failed to get a quota in the last two elections, and is the bookies tip as the Minister most likely to lose a seat. Mae Sexton, Tim and Fiona O'Malley, Liz O'Donnell and Tom parlon are all in trouble according to the boffins on politics.ie.
 
It's all we've got at the moment! Also, this election is looking like it's far more likely to be swung by transfers than by first preferences.

I reckon it's best to maximise your influence as best you can, but I'd much rather see you vote one pref only than spoil it - whichever way you're voting.

sure. i'm still giving it a lot of thought (and i do take it seriously, honest), heading down shortly - i appreciate the discussion. luckily, the green party candidate in our constituency is a smart and decent guy i've met a few times and would trust, so the decision to vote was swung by that.

it's strange... i've unintentionally changed two people's first preferences (or so they say) over the last couple of days just by us having a conversation about it, and yet i'm still not totally certain beyond my own #1 either.
 
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