US Presidential Elections 2008 (1 Viewer)

[billygannon]

I don't think they are that smart though. Even if they were, the urge to hold onto power would over-ride those sorts of considerations. As long as they have a chance they are always going to try and win. I just think they made a bit of a mess of it, exacerbated by internal party divisions/conflicts and an unpopular president.

However, what you're saying will certainly be some consolation to them if they are booted out .. but I don't think that is certain yet by any means. I'm still not convinced Obama is going to win.

I am convinced Obama will win.

Firstly he's got a clear lead in every major poll.

Secondly voter registration for the Democrats is twice as much as it is for Republicans.

Thirdly it's often forgotten that McCain is not particulatly liked by a number of Republicans. Whereas the Clinton/Obama division received a lot of attention, it should be emphasised that McCain really wasn't a clear pick for the Republicans. If anything he's the best of a bad lot (for them). The level of support behind Obama is far, far stronger than that of McCain.

Fourthly McCain's age is a serious consideration. This, along with his medical history, will definitely play on the mind of a number of American voters.

Fifthly the effect that Sarah Palin had on the campaign has completely evaporated. If anything she's become an "and finally" piece in most news broadcasts. Her poor performances in interviews have made her more of a laughing stock rather than a serious candidate - especially considering what is happening with the markets at the moment.

Sixthly Bush is the second most unpopular president ever. The Republicans have been seriously damaged by the prolonged Iraq war and this huge financial crisis. McCain is standing as the Republican candidate and has been a member of the administration for the previous eight years. Nobody seriously sees him as someone who can instigate change.

McCain's strong points are around foreign policy and security. The first debate was around this topic. McCain needed to defeat Obama in this debate. He didn't.
Obama has a stronger grasp on economics.

Because of the market turmoil, attention has shifted to the internal matters and the economy - something Obama is perceived to have a better grasp on.

The only way McCain could win is if America suffers a terrorist attack or something really bad comes out about Obama.
Seeing as the Clinton campaign tried to dig up as much as it could about Obama, I'd seriously doubt there are any skeletons left in his closet.

Personally I think at this stage it'll be a case of how much Obama will win by rather than if he'll win. And I think the margin of victory will surprise everyone.

 

[snakybus]

I hope you're right Billy but don't discount the Democratic party's knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

[hugh]

I hope you're right Billy but don't discount the Democratic party's knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Precisely. And the other thing is I don't believe that the polls reflect the role that race will play on the day but ....

All the reasons that Billy gives are sound and good reasons why he should win. If I was going to place a bet I would bet on Obama but I'm just pessimistic about US elections. This is what 8 years of Bush does to you ...

 

[Jill Hives]

I am convinced Obama will win.

I hope you're right but I'm not convinced. I was fooled last time reading articles/polls and living in a very democratic area.

Firstly he's got a clear lead in every major poll.

Secondly voter registration for the Democrats is twice as much as it is for Republicans.

Polls are meaningless. Registration means nothing too. Just because someone signs up on the street because of peer pressure or a sense of civic duty doesn't mean they are actually going to leave work and go an vote on the day.

Thirdly it's often forgotten that McCain is not particulatly liked by a number of Republicans. Whereas the Clinton/Obama division received a lot of attention, it should be emphasised that McCain really wasn't a clear pick for the Republicans. If anything he's the best of a bad lot (for them). The level of support behind Obama is far, far stronger than that of McCain.

My parents are Republicans. This the first year (I talked to them last night) they are not voting. They don't like either candidate. I think this is a common thing. I don't think non McCain votes will turn into Obama votes. They will be no votes or Republican votes out of routine.

Fourthly McCain's age is a serious consideration. This, along with his medical history, will definitely play on the mind of a number of American voters.

Fifthly the effect that Sarah Palin had on the campaign has completely evaporated. If anything she's become an "and finally" piece in most news broadcasts. Her poor performances in interviews have made her more of a laughing stock rather than a serious candidate - especially considering what is happening with the markets at the moment.

Do you really think most Americans have been watching all of this crap? Do you think they are going out of their way to figure out what is going on? It's a huge country and most are working several jobs and maybe catch the local news and read local headlines, which foster to local views.

Sixthly Bush is the second most unpopular president ever. The Republicans have been seriously damaged by the prolonged Iraq war and this huge financial crisis. McCain is standing as the Republican candidate and has been a member of the administration for the previous eight years. Nobody seriously sees him as someone who can instigate change.

No matter who wins, change will take years. It's a lesser of two evils really. People want to be able to put food on the table and that boils down to taxes. People just hear lower taxes. Less of their money going to cities to help useless people on the street doing drugs while they work 2 jobs. It's totally against their needs when really thought out but the republican party has done a good job of hooking them in with "lower taxes".

Because of the market turmoil, attention has shifted to the internal matters and the economy - something Obama is perceived to have a better grasp on.

Perceived? By whom? I don't think that's true. I hate to be a pessimist but people are fet up and don't trust either of them. I fear it will end up close like the last two with the Republicans winning again. Just look at the state of New York, take away NYC and the rest of the state is very red.

It's depressing.

 

[billygannon]

Precisely. And the other thing is I don't believe that the polls reflect the role that race will play on the day but ....

All the reasons that Billy gives are sound and good reasons why he should win. If I was going to place a bet I would bet on Obama but I'm just pessimistic about US elections. This is what 8 years of Bush does to you ...

Race will play a part in the election - although I don't think it's that significant.

If anything this race issue will be more in his favour. Pretty much every African-American voter is going to vote for him. This number is at least as big as if not greater than the number of voters who don't want to see a black president.

 

[Jill Hives]

Race will play a part in the election - although I don't think it's that significant.

If anything this race issue will be more in his favour.

I doubt it and I'll leave it at that.


Also, I recently got connected with some of my high school 'freinds' on facebook. People I haven't seen in years. Many that went to college and I once considered intelligent... most shockingly Republicans. Also I was deleted as a friend after I made a sarcastic comment on a photo after someone commented, "I never voted republican before but I am this year because of Sarah, she's a mom like us" -- I am not joking!

 

[Mormon Nailer]

There is a thread going on munsterfans about the election - there are a couple of posters who a died in the woll republicans. They are getting a hard time.!

McCain is an ignorant philandering waster who has skated by on his daddy's reputation (sound familliar!), he's a mean, ill tempered and volatile little s**t whose temperment makes him unelectable.

Obama is thoughtful and intelligent. He is capiable of things that McCain is plainly not; nuance, sober considered insight and intelligent reflection. His preformace in the debates has been supberb, hee looked far more like a statesman that McCain who has looked erratic and desperate throught the debates.

I have been very impressed with Obama throughout the primaries and throught the race itself. I supported him ahead of Hillary and if I had a vote here I'd vote for him in a heartbeat.

The US is f**ked up. 8 years of a fratboy president have nearly destroyed the country, and McCain who has all of W's flaws along with some additional ones of his own is certainly not the solution. He is a vile little s**t.

Let's be honest in a normal society McCain wouldnt be fit to shine Obama shoes. But it seems there is no one too mediocre that they can't rise to the top in the republican party, and there is no voter in the US so dim that that can't be made vote for the party with their foot on your throats.

Republicans have their cock up the american peoples ass but as long as you get your little "small govermnent" and "balanced budget" reacharound every couple of years idiots like you think they are doing you a favour.

 

[Gambra]

Precisely. And the other thing is I don't believe that the polls reflect the role that race will play on the day but ....

You must remember though that 33% of voters will have voted well before Nov 4th. Voting is going on right now sure.

 

[shower another shower]

voting=voluntary servitude to corporate overlords.
I for one, will not be voting.

 

[the strange guy]

If voting is an act of subservience, then what do you call living with the results of other peoples' votes?

 

[flashback]

A simple minded way of predicting a win for Dems is there is now a very clear feeling in the US that something is seriously wrong I think.

There is still some confidence that the US will bounce back, Wall St will get its act together, house prices will stop dropping, the economy can work and so on. But its been shaken.
People do want things to turn around.
And I think they see the shortest path to this is via Obama.

This economy and curruption stuff has really hurt the GOP. More so than the war. And, its possible that the war fuck ups alone could have swung it for Obama.
This calling Obama a terrrist stinks of desperation.
Now there is this thing on McCain's role in the Savings and Loans scandal.

At the moment it really is a perfect storm hitting the GOP on a lot of fronts.

Of course this could calm a little bit but something monumental is going to have to happen soon for Obama to lose it at this point.

 

[flashback]

voting=voluntary servitude to corporate overlords.

Bollocks.

 

[Jill Hives]

Of course this could calm a little bit but something monumental is going to have to happen soon for Obama to lose it at this point.

Do you ever leave NYC? This is a serious question because I would have said the same thing 4 years ago living in Boston. You talk to the people around you and it seems like everyone is on the same page. Leave the city and you'll quickly see it's MUCH different.

 

[shower another shower]

If voting is an act of subservience, then what do you call living with the results of other peoples' votes?

I don't live with the results of other peoples' votes. Well, as much as you do, anyway.
Not that the popular vote matters anyway. Two words. Electoral college.
Besides, in the last 8 years, we've seen two, openly rigged elections in the states.
As the old saying goes, "if voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal".

 

[flashback]

Do you ever leave NYC? This is a serious question because I would have said the same thing 4 years ago living in Boston. You talk to the people around you and it seems like everyone is on the same page. Leave the city and you'll quickly see it's MUCH different.

yeah, point taken. I do spend most time around here alright.
But... I think that something has happened with the US over the last little while.
The economy has shaken people. Bush has come out and said some scary shit. People know there is total pandamonium in the market, and they know that their houses are falling in value, and that banks are failing left and right.

The whole country is feeling this. Its not just NY. I think I have noticed a change in the general feeling about things. Its no one thing, for instance, there was a economy pundit on TV last night talking about the meltdown, and he prefixed what he was saying with "I dont think we are about to queuing up in central park again for free soup", and... I mean, people nodded in agreement.
What. The. Fuck??
Riiiiight. I would say that's unlikely alright, but.. people are needing reassurance on this it seems. People are thinking that something major is going down, something phenomenally fucked up.
And they want it out of their system.
Therefor, I would be beyond stunned if the GOP hang onto it this year.
I would be more or less convinced that the election itself has been rigged.


edit... BDSloth... if you mean that voting is pointless because you think the system is rigged and or broken, that's different. I thought you fundamentally thought voting itself was pointless.
I am not convinced that the US's system is not rigged.
And it certainly is broken.

 

[Jill Hives]

yeah, point taken. I do spend most time around here alright.
But... I think that something has happened with the US over the last little while.
The economy has shaken people. Bush has come out and said some scary shit. People know there is total pandamonium in the market, and they know that their houses are falling in value, and that banks are failing left and right.

The whole country is feeling this. Its not just NY.

The thing is outside big cities like NYC, things were already fucked. Over the past ten years my little red town (for example) has lost tons of business, tons of jobs, the property market and house prices had already dropped well before this fuck up. To quote my father, "It's about time it hit the big guys".... I would put money on it that my county will vote red again this year. It's only a five hour drive from NYC. That's not even to talk about places in the mid west. People vote locally. The news is slanted locally. Live some where like NYC, Boston, or over here for that matter and it's hard to think anyone wouldn't see how bad it is. Live in small town America for a while and it's understandable.

 

[Scientician 0.8]

He's gonna be the coolest POTUS ever if elected.

 

[flashback]

That has to get a mention in the gay horn thread.

Or even the regular common or garden horn thread.

 

[Carlow Punks!]

"We the Prisoners....."

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[Diddles]

"We the Prisoners....."

YouTube - McCain Loses It: Calls Americans 'My Fellow Prisoners'

He's still back in 'Nam. Fucked up.