General Election 2016 (1 Viewer)

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Not long now (8th of April at the latest) so I suppose we could do with a thread.

http://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Paddy-Power-December-2015-Poll-Report.pdf

The latest opinion poll has FG on 28, Labour on 9, FF on 20, SF on 18, Independent/Others on 23 and the Greens on 2 with 13% undecided.
Big falls obviously for FG and Labour since 2011, FG seem quietly confident they'll regain much of what they lost with some in the party even speculating they may pull a Tories and win an overall majority (they won't). Labour seem to be in major trouble, while they may see a boost in the run up to the election I suspect they'll be much weakened as opposed to last time out. Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail are both up on 2011 and we may well see SF as the opposition party if things go well for them on the day.
Of the new parties, I don't expect a whole lot. The SDs should see all three of their current incumbents returned (although there are some doubts around Donnelly) but their new crop doesn't inspire much hope. Renua will probably see Lucinda returned with Timmins and Flanagan rather more doubtful. Outside of that, and in common with the SDs, I wouldn't be too confident of them gaining much. Shane Ross's Independent Alliance will see Lord Ross returned as number one in Dublin Rathdown, I can't speak for the rest of their current TD's but former Green Paul Gogarty may get back in under their umbrella. I'm not sure at all about the various iterations of the Socialists/PbP etc so will leave them be for now, anyone else who is more knowledgeable can fill in the gap.

As for the next government? I'll go with FG/Labour/Renua and maybe a few independents to make up the numbers. Alternately we may see a good enough showing for SF/FF that they can cobble together a coalition, again with the support of various independents. Either way, the new government will need a strong mandate or we could be heading back to the early 80s with a series of elections in quick succession, probably the last thing the country needs right now.
(Forgive me for any glaring errors in the above, I just sat down and typed.)
 

тхеодоре кацзынски

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While I'm bored I'll try fill in with some information on various constituencies (mostly Dublin). I'll start with Dublin-Rathdown as its the one I know best (although that may not be saying much).

A three seater with, so far, 9 candidates, two for FG (Shatter and the new kid on the block, Madigan), two independents (Ross and Mathews, formerly of FG), and one each for SF, FF, Labour, PbP and the Greens (respectively- Nic Cormaic, Mary White, Alex White, Curry and Martin). This was previously a larger constituency with five seats so it should be something of a bloodbath this time round. Ross will top the poll with one of the two remaining two seats likely to go to Fine Gael. One would think that the current incumbent, Shatter, would be a shoe in but he lost a lot of his core support when the constituency was revised, with the scandals around him not helping much either. The closure of Stepaside garda station hurt too so I wouldn't be too sure of him getting back in. The other FG candidate is currently a first time councillor and seems to be reveling in the role. She should get a lot of votes in the more well to do areas and, as she has no history (that we can speak of), may just beat out Shatter for the seat.
As for the third seat? FG are sure they can get it, I would be very surprised if so, I think it'll be a toss up between the White's with Alex likely (IMO) to shade it. Mary White has been very active in the area, she's been hosting a meeting a month for at least the last six months so she's certainly raised her profile but Alex should get in by dint of his being a sitting minister.
As for the rest, I don't give them much hope, a bunch of relative unknowns from parties that, Greens aside, would generally be looked down upon by most of the good burghers of Rathdown. SF and PbP will do well in the less well off areas but I don't think there's enough such areas to see their candidates returned and, while the Greens will probably get support from all over I don't think it'll be enough to make an impact.
Of course I stand to be corrected come the results.
 

тхеодоре кацзынски

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As I'm living in the Dun Laoghaire constituency i should do that one now.
Although a four seater, as it was in 2011, as the Ceann Comhairle is automatically returned and of the constituency its effectively a three seater this time.
10 candidates thus far, two for FG- Bailey and O'Connor. Two FFers- Hanafin and Devlin. One each for PbP, SF, Labour, Renua, Independent Alliance and the Greens- Boyd Barrett, O'Brien, Smyth, Cronin, Hunt and Smith.
FF have had a rather interesting history of late here, Hanafin forced her way into the locals, won a seat and then decided she wanted to run in the generals. After much ado the selection convention elected Devlin with Hanafin in second place and so no place on the party ticket. This didn't hold Mary Many Pensions back however and a couple of days later party HQ dictated that she be added on to the ticket in the constituency, much to the presumed indignation of the great white hopeful, Kate Feeney who, for now, must content herself with a seat on the local council. Hanafin is assuming she has enough support to beat out Devlin to the seat (they won't take two) but everyone in the constituency who is not FF must be hoping that the vote is split and the party gets nothing.
Not a lot to report on elsewhere- Boyd Barrett will presumably hold onto his seat as will Mary Mitchell O'Connor with the final seat likely to go to the aforementioned Hanafin (much as it pains me to say it). Carol Hunt is certainly putting herself out there by running, and, much as I'm sure she'll be ably supported by all at the Sunday Independent I can't see her getting a seat. I don't know much of the rest but I can't see any surprises from them, SF will do well in the south of the constituency but I can't see it being enough.
On the Ceann Comhairle, there is some speculation that he may retire in advance of the election with his role in the Dail going to another FG candidate in a less advantageous position but I don't see that happening. If it does however, there'll be an extra seat here and, assuming my three predictions above come to pass, I suspect it'll be a dogfight between Hunt, SF and Labour (had Gilmore not decided to retire he may well have gotten in again in this situation), but one that I won't predict.
 

7 - No tomorrow

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Loved that FG story too, I'm not sure how much they'll get from it though, different systems and set up's.
I think it's more about selling a message for them.

What do you do when you're a horrible cunt but the economy is on the upswing? That kind of deal.
 

тхеодоре кацзынски

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I think it's more about selling a message for them.

What do you do when you're a horrible cunt but the economy is on the upswing? That kind of deal.

True, I read it while still half asleep this morning. So, vote for the least worst option- the message seems to be taking with voters, the last poll had FG/Lab at a combined 41%, not bad considering where they were a year or so ago.
 

7 - No tomorrow

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True, I read it while still half asleep this morning. So, vote for the least worst option- the message seems to be taking with voters, the last poll had FG/Lab at a combined 41%, not bad considering where they were a year or so ago.
FG are currently on message that the coalition is the best way forward.
But they're obviously hoping for the surprise blowjob of an overall majority that Cameron got.
 

тхеодоре кацзынски

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FG are currently on message that the coalition is the best way forward.
But they're obviously hoping for the surprise blowjob of an overall majority that Cameron got.

Oh definitely, there's no way that'll happen though. Even Labour are out selling the message that coalition is best. They're at 16% in Dublin which should see a decent return at the forthcoming election, they certainly won't do as well as last time but I think they'll hold their own.
 

тхеодоре кацзынски

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smartvote.ie

Turns out some guy i've never heard of who's running as an independent in my constituency has almost identical views as I have on almost everything. Well you live and learn.

I matched most closely with the two FFers running out my way. I can't in good conscience vote for Mary Hanafin but Cormac Devlin seems harmless enough.
 

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I got: 1. Greens 2. independent I'd never heard of 3. P.B.P.A. 4. A.A.A. 5. S.F...
Leo Varadkar apparently sits on the fence for 22 out of 30 issues btw
The Fine Gael candidates as a rule seem to have gone neutral with almost every answer, which seems pointless with a system like this (who's going to bother filling out the questionnaire and give no opinion for 90% of the responses?)
 

тхеодоре кацзынски

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It's telling me I should vote for the Green Party : /

You could do worse.

The Fine Gael candidates as a rule seem to have gone neutral with almost every answer, which seems pointless with a system like this (who's going to bother filling out the questionnaire and give no opinion for 90% of the responses?)

They stole Fianna Fail's votes last time out, now they're stealing their non-stance on issues.
 
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