US Presidential Elections 2008 (1 Viewer)

[the strange guy]

I like Obama as much as the next person.
But the state of that forum thing on his website.

GOBAMA 08!
YES WE CAN!

Every post.
Every bleedin post.

 

[billygannon]

You would be confident that Hilary would win Billy?
There are some very hard numbers to get passed for that to happen.

I am just not at all sure about that.
Like I said before, she is amazingly polarizing. People who would fully agree with everything she actually says, and disagree with a lot of what McCain says would still vote McCain.

For sure.

She is just loathed by a large set of people. And she has shown shit judgment in PR matters over and over again, feeding back into the loathing part of things.
And she has shown shit judgment about who she surrounds herself with.

In her favour though is the economy.
Its bollixed now, and she quite possibly could turn that around, and people know that. Even those who loathe her.

I dont know. Its very hard for me to see her winning. I see McCain giving her a very hard race.

You're much closer to all of this - so you're in a better position to talk about this election than I am.

I'm just going on what the turn-outs are for these primaries.
Clinton is a very polarising politician. Maybe this is something the super delegates will pick up on they'll opt for Obama. From what I understand, most of the super delegates will go for whoever is in lead - and at the moment, although it's slender, that's Obama.

But regardless of whether it's Obama or Clinton, the actual Presidential campaign will shift the focus back on to deciding between Republican and Democrat.
So even if Obama doesn't win the primaries, wouldn't his supporters still prefer to see Clinton in rather than McCain? Even if it's half of them, it'll still see Clinton win.

I mean Bush is the least popular president ever.
The Republicans lost both upper and lower houses - which is the first time in donkey's years (excuse the pun).
I just get the impression that the American public is tired of Republicanism and war politics and want a change.
Obama represents the clearest change - simply because he doesn't have a lengthy history in Washington. But Clinton would still represent a chance - albeit a less dramatic one.

Anyway, McCain was a compromise for Republicans. It seems they just started backing him simply because there were no other reliable alternatives - Hucakbee is a lunatic and Romney - well, he's Mormon and that simply won't do. I don't think McCain will galvanise people to vote for more of the same whereas the Democrats are riding on a wave of a public need for change.

 

[magicbastarder]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0OkW8Ml8ljw&refer=worldwide

 

[MDR]

I don't think you can judge anything by the turnout at the primaries, as these people represent the affiliated hardcore in politics and are not necessarily representative of the wider electorate.

The press has aloways focused on democratic candidates as the press is based on either coast, both of which tend to vote democrat. The press was way off last time in predicting a defeat for Bush.

McCain has had a stroll in the primaries - Obama will face a much tougher text if he becomes the actual candidate (which it looks like he will). He is completely untested in that situation. He failed to get a seat in the House of Representatives in 2000 and only made the Senate in 2005 because the incumbent retired and his opponent was crazy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Keyes).

Obama could come through and win, but there is no evidence to suggest so at the moment. McCain's senate career began in 1987 and he has been involved in presidential campaigns since 2000. That experience will stand to him.

We'll just have to wait and see though.

 

[snakybus]

In fairness, the 100 years of war thing is a gross exaggeration of what McCain said and actually meant. He was talking about American presence in Iraq, and 100 years was just off the top of his head -- he was engaging in hyperbola to hit home that he believes the US needs to continue its military presence for as long as it takes (which you may or may not agree with, but it's not a promise of a hundred years of war). Nobody would think that America is at war with, for example, Germany, even though there are American bases there and have been there for the last 50 years or more.

 

[billygannon]

I don't think you can judge anything by the turnout at the primaries, as these people represent the affiliated hardcore in politics and are not necessarily representative of the wider electorate.

What's significant about these Democratic primaries is the numbers of people voting who would ordinarily not vote.
Therefore it's not an affiliated hardcore of voters.
That's why I feel the Democrats are going to win this election.

McCain has had a stroll in the primaries - Obama will face a much tougher text if he becomes the actual candidate (which it looks like he will). He is completely untested in that situation. He failed to get a seat in the House of Representatives in 2000 and only made the Senate in 2005 because the incumbent retired and his opponent was crazy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Keyes).

McCain has only got this nomination because the incumbent has to vacate the seat and his opponents... well, one didn't believe in evolution and the other was a Mormon (not that Mormons are inherently bad - but they're not appealing to the Republican community). Giuliani is, well, Giuliani.

Obama could come through and win, but there is no evidence to suggest so at the moment. McCain's senate career began in 1987 and he has been involved in presidential campaigns since 2000. That experience will stand to him.

We'll just have to wait and see though.

Obama is about thirty years younger than McCain. Of course McCain has had more experience.

On top of this McCain hasn't had a significant opponent in these primaries. Just by simply getting through this Democratic primary is a good enough test for Obama.

My point is this. McCain will be the Republican candidate. Bush was a Republican president. The vast majority of US citizens want a change in Washington. They are sick of the war in Iraq. They are sick of rubbish healthcare. And they are scared about their economy.
The Republicans have lost the last two national elections - for both the upper and lower houses. They won't win the presidency.

They're putting forward a candidate who is certainly among the oldest, if not the eldest, candidate ever for election. He has said he won't end the war in Iraq. He doesn't even have the full support of the Republican community.

Obama doesn't have the experience. His policies are not important. His political experience isn't important. It's just the fact he represents a change. And that's why I believe he will the election.

But even if Obama doesn't win the primaries, Clinton will still beat McCain.

 

[shower another shower]

Yis are all mad. Restore the constitution. The Fed is a load of bollox. Can anyone say 'human resources'? What happened to freemen/women?
The US has been living on debt since the civil war. These are exciting times, but it don't matter if its Obama, Clinton, McCain or Bush. Its all making money for the elite and keeping man/womankind in corporate slavery.
Don't vote. Don't get a SS number, don't fill in the census. Don't work, unless its for yourselves.

 

[Space]

Yis are all mad. Restore the constitution. The Fed is a load of bollox. Can anyone say 'human resources'? What happened to freemen/women?
The US has been living on debt since the civil war. These are exciting times, but it don't matter if its Obama, Clinton, McCain or Bush. Its all making money for the elite and keeping man/womankind in corporate slavery.
Don't vote. Don't get a SS number, don't fill in the census. Don't work, unless its for yourselves.

Stop making sense.

 

[flashback]

Thing is, the reason a lot of people voted for Bush was because he was a good ole boy, who dun talked lak they did, dudnt lak queers, and did love and fear God.


Talking about foreign policy, economics, doesn't matter a fuck to these guys. They voted for values.

So, what's changed?
US economy is about to get another in a long line of kicks to the nuts. The wars are not going great. No one really wants to have a beer with the guy any more.

Its possible that these guys who fear God and dudn't lak queers might get the message that things are not so great when they are burying their kids and getting kicked out of their gaffs.

They are about to be sold the message that unless McCain gets in, everything that they have died for will be for nothing.
Do they want to lose another war?
Are they scared?
Is America WEAK???
ARE YOU WEAK?
Because, if you are, if you let your guard down for a second, the Taliban will be rolling into Texas through Mexico.
Obama is ONE OF THEM.
or
Clinton is a NASTY BITCH that doesn't even have Democratic support. She's probably a filthy dyke too.


And that is going to win votes.
Clinton has already started fear mongering.
Its like Thatcher going for election saying Vote For me, or the IRA will getcha.

I'm not so sure at all that Clinton can beat McCain. We'll see. (Or hopefully we wont.)

 

[quasiquasi]

It's all getting really nasty, this week and I'll be surprised if it ends well...I think the Rev. Wright story will be extremely damaging for Obama as it's getting a lot of play in the media and it will scare off a lot of undecided white voters who might be considering voting for him. It all fits into Clinton's strategy of framing Obama as the "black candidate" and hoping the superdelegates won't vote for him if he looks unelectable in November.

If he can manage to defuse this issue I think he'll be president, though. Rezko is a non-story; both Clinton and McCain have much more damaging financial skeletons.

 

[MDR]

What's significant about these Democratic primaries is the numbers of people voting who would ordinarily not vote.
Therefore it's not an affiliated hardcore of voters.
That's why I feel the Democrats are going to win this election.



McCain has only got this nomination because the incumbent has to vacate the seat and his opponents... well, one didn't believe in evolution and the other was a Mormon (not that Mormons are inherently bad - but they're not appealing to the Republican community). Giuliani is, well, Giuliani.




Obama is about thirty years younger than McCain. Of course McCain has had more experience.

On top of this McCain hasn't had a significant opponent in these primaries. Just by simply getting through this Democratic primary is a good enough test for Obama.

My point is this. McCain will be the Republican candidate. Bush was a Republican president. The vast majority of US citizens want a change in Washington. They are sick of the war in Iraq. They are sick of rubbish healthcare. And they are scared about their economy.
The Republicans have lost the last two national elections - for both the upper and lower houses. They won't win the presidency.

They're putting forward a candidate who is certainly among the oldest, if not the eldest, candidate ever for election. He has said he won't end the war in Iraq. He doesn't even have the full support of the Republican community.

Obama doesn't have the experience. His policies are not important. His political experience isn't important. It's just the fact he represents a change. And that's why I believe he will the election.

But even if Obama doesn't win the primaries, Clinton will still beat McCain.

You make some good points there Billy, but you haven't really changed my mind to be honest. Obama's message of change and hope could wear thin over the course of a campaign. People will want to know about actual change rather than rhetoric - I think the press will go much harder on him once he gets the nomination; if he gets it. He has never been through a political battle before. We'll have to wait and see.

I think McCain is a weak candidate but his 'regular guy' appeal will stand in his favour. The main campaign will be a dirty one, and I feel clinton is better cut out for that.

 

[quasiquasi]

He has never been through a political battle before. We'll have to wait and see.

Well, he's in one now. As I said, I think his overall chances depend on how he handles this week.

 

[7 - No tomorrow]

Really good speech by Obama on race last night for anyone interested

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23691239#23691239

 

[the strange guy]

Brilliant speech.
Amazing even.
If all of America sat down and watched the whole thing I'm sure a few minds would have been blown.
But there wasn't enough soundbites for the lazy hacks.
And it's not as quotable as his pastor's sermons.

Good luck to the fella anyhow imho

 

[pete]

bleedin volume levels are doing me head in

 

[7 - No tomorrow]

Brilliant speech.
Amazing even.
If all of America sat down and watched the whole thing I'm sure a few minds would have been blown.
But there wasn't enough soundbites for the lazy hacks.
And it's not as quotable as his pastor's sermons.

Good luck to the fella anyhow imho

Agreed.
It's one of the most honest and least pandering speeches I've seen an American politician give.

 

[MDR]

It's beautifully written and delivered, and the clarity and inclusiveness of his thinking is very impressive. Played in schools around the country today I'll bet.

 

[pete]

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[quasiquasi]

I have no idea any more how this will end up...Obama's poll ratings have plummetted, and I think Clinton's goal now will be to make him look unelectable. But will something else happen next week to change the landscape again? Will Obama scrape through and then lose 49 states in November? Will McCain go nuts and eat someone on live TV?

I thought the speech was awesome, certainly the best contemporary speech I have ever seen. I can't think of any other politician who would/could try anything so nuanced and honest. It seems to have redoubled the enthusiasm of his supporters and further alienated his enemies (though Mike Huckabee liked it!), but I don't know what its effect will be on the uncommitted voters he needs to win over. The speech was at 11am and most people will only see clips on the news with whatever spin the network puts on it.

 

[Pantone247]

but did you see the state of his Pastor?!!

amazing, total Black Panther stuff