US Presidential Elections 2008 (1 Viewer)

[the strange guy]

"I know the pundits, and I know what they say: The math doesn't work out," Huckabee said Saturday morning at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. "Well, I didn't major in math, I majored in miracles. And I still believe in those, too."

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/09/feb.9.contests/index.html

 

[flashback]

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/09/feb.9.contests/index.html

good point.
Who is McCain chose as his running mate?
Those other lads are all clearly severely mentally ill.


Condi Rice?

Woman + black == win?

 

[flashback]

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[pete]

Also earning a Grammy was Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, who defeated two presidents -- Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter -- to take home the award for best spoken-word album. Obama won for his book, "The Audacity Of Hope: Thoughts On Reclaiming The American Dream."

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/SHOWBIZ/Music/02/10/grammys/index.html

 

[avernus]

Op-Ed Columnist
Obama’s Path to Victory

By WILLIAM KRISTOL
Published: February 11, 2008


Last summer, George W. Bush told The Washington Examiner’s Bill Sammon that Hillary Clinton would probably be the 2008 Democratic nominee. “She’s got a national presence and this is becoming a national primary,” he said. “And therefore the person with the national presence who has got the ability to raise enough money to sustain an effort in a multiplicity of sites has got a good chance to be nominated.”



This seemed a reasonable judgment at the time. It may still turn out to be right. But today Barack Obama is neck-and-neck with Clinton in the national polls — and he’s shown a greater ability to raise money. After his strong showing over the weekend, it is Obama who now has the clearer path to his party’s nomination.


I’ll avoid a false precision in the numbers that follow. There are minor differences among news organizations in projecting delegate allocations in states that have already voted, and in counting preferences among the 796 elected officials and party leaders — the “superdelegates” — who vote according to their choice, not voters’ instruction.


Obama leads Clinton by roughly 70 delegates among about 2,000 chosen so far in primaries and caucuses. (There are still about 1,200 delegates outstanding.) Among the superdelegates, Clinton is ahead by about 100 superdelegates among the 300 who have declared a preference (though any of them can change their mind, so a count of them now is in large measure premature). All in all, Clinton seems to be slightly ahead.
She won’t be for long. On Tuesday Obama is expected to prevail in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia. So around 9 p.m. Tuesday night, television networks probably will be announcing, for the first time, that Barack Obama holds an unambiguous delegate lead.


His lead in votes — which is already in the neighborhood of 200,000 — will probably have widened. And Obama should be able to increase those delegate and popular vote totals on Feb. 19, when Wisconsin and Hawaii go to the polls.


Next comes March 4, when Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island vote. Clinton’s campaign believes Ohio and Texas will constitute her firewall. Will it hold?


I suspect not. Obama will have momentum. He will likely have more money than Clinton for advertising. His ballot performance among Hispanics and working-class whites has generally been improving as the primary season has gone on. He intends to push a more robust economic message that could help him further narrow the gap among lower-income voters. And an interesting regression analysis at the Daily Kos Web site (poblano.dailykos.com) of the determinants of the Democratic vote so far, applied to the demographics of the Ohio electorate, suggests that Obama has a better chance than is generally realized in Ohio.


As for Texas, look for a couple of possible endorsements to help Obama there. If John Edwards campaigns for Obama in East Texas, and Bill Richardson defies the pleas of Bill Clinton and travels across the border from New Mexico to help out, Obama could prevail.


If Obama wins Ohio and Texas — or even wins one — he’ll be in good shape. He should take Wyoming on March 8 and Mississippi on March 11. Then there’s over a month until the next contest, in Pennsylvania on April 22. That stretch of time could be key. It could be the moment for many of the uncommitted superdelegates to begin ratifying the choice of Democratic primary voters, and to start moving en masse to Obama.
Many of these superdelegates are elected officials. They tend to care about winning in November. The polls suggest Obama matches up better with John McCain. And the polls are merely echoing the judgment of almost every Democratic elected official from a competitive district or a swing state with whom I’ve spoken. They would virtually all prefer Obama at the top of the ticket.


All of this will move the superdelegates to Obama — perhaps as early as just after March 4, or perhaps not until April 22, or perhaps not even until the last match-up on June 7. But the superdelegates will want to avoid a situation in which they could be in the position of seeming to override the popular vote, or of resolving a bitter battle over whether and how to count votes from Florida and Michigan, at the convention.



And there are, as a final resort, two super-superdelegates (so to speak) who would have the clout to help Democrats achieve closure: Al Gore and Nancy Pelosi.


If they stepped forward at the right time, they would earn the gratitude of their party. And they might also enjoy contemplating a derivative effect of their good deed — the fall of the house of Clinton.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/opinion/11kristol.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

 

[avernus]

YouTube - Barack Obama Strongest in November versus McCain

it's pretty sickening that she doesn't draw well with men. I can't help but feel it has less to do with politics. still, I'm for Obama. because I'm a sexist pig.

 

[flashback]

it's pretty sickening that she doesn't draw well with men. I can't help but feel it has less to do with politics. still, I'm for Obama. because I'm a sexist pig.

It might be.
It might be for male sexist reasons, or it might be that woman are voting for Clinton because she is a woman over other reasons. Ie female sexism. It works both ways.

Either way it's more sickening that it seems most people in the US voted for Bush to return to power.

At the moment the Dems need to be in the business of winning the next election, and they need the best person for that job.

Hilary might be a better President, probably so for the first 6 months - 1year say. I think Obama would be good, but in a different way. I think Obama would rise up as time went on to possibly become very good. Both of them are smart, Hilary just knows more stuff at the moment. But, you would expect that.
Hilary would almost certainly be better than her husband.


That's not the issue though.

The issue is making sure McCain doesn't win.
Obama is your man for this. No matter how distasteful it might or might not be.

 

[avernus]

It might be.
It might be for male sexist reasons, or it might be that woman are voting for Clinton because she is a woman over other reasons. Ie female sexism. It works both ways.

Either way it's more sickening that it seems most people in the US voted for Bush to return to power.

At the moment the Dems need to be in the business of winning the next election, and they need the best person for that job.

Hilary might be a better President, probably so for the first 6 months - 1year say. I think Obama would be good, but in a different way. I think Obama would rise up as time went on to possibly become very good. Both of them are smart, Hilary just knows more stuff at the moment. But, you would expect that.
Hilary would almost certainly be better than her husband.


That's not the issue though.

The issue is making sure McCain doesn't win.
Obama is your man for this. No matter how distasteful it might or might not be.

yeah, still women voting for Clinton simply because she's female is infinitely more positive than men not voting for her because she's female.

I'm still firmly for Obama, but I'd be happy with Clinton too. But if it is a question of who can win in November, then you got to make that choice. It looks like Obama is the one to take down McCain. But you never know. Obama could accidentally murder one of his children or McCain could accidentally burn down a hotel full of people. A lot can happen in a few months.

 

[flashback]

A lot can happen in a few months.

I am hearing this a lot.
Particularly on the Rep side of things. They say "a lot can happen in a few months", and then they talk about a big disaster, another attack, a 2nd 9/11, and then they look at the camera, and say "you have to ask who is better with security", and then they say " a lot can happen in a few months" again, and hold a stare at the camera.

Like its a fucking threat.
Like they are saying shit is going to happen, just wait and see little bitches. Then it will be business as usual.

It actually has me a little bit disturbed. What with me being in Manhattan every day.
I am sitting there, half thinking, they are so evil, its hard to know what they are capable of.

 

[jane]

I think that for those who are backing Obama, it's more because he's the best candidate for the job, rather than anything to do with what he or Hillary is or is not. There may well be people not voting for Hillary because she's a chick, but you know, people who would not vote for a woman just because she's a woman may also be the sort of people who wouldn't vote for a black dude, either. Sexism and racism are not exactly distant relations.

I think people who are conscious of the needs and issues important to women, minorities, the working poor, etc, are more likely to vote, not necessarily for a candidate who is part of that group, but the one most likely to look out for those needs and issues. Which I think Obama is. I mean, look at Condi -- she benefitted from affirmative action, and she shut the door behind her. That's not cool, and I don't think there are any feminists or black activists out there who would genuinely consider voting for her if she was running.

I really believe people are voting for Obama because of what he is like, because he has vision. In the last eight years, we've only had the opportunity to vote for the 'lesser of the evils', and this is the first time we've had the chance to believe in a candidate.

Of course, Gore was great, he just didn't come across with the same charisma Obama has, and it wasn't until An Inconvenient Truth and related events that people realised how much passion he actually has. Obama has that, AND an effortless way of conveying it.

 

[flashback]

Condi is black in the sense she has dark skin.
And a woman in the sense she has a vagina.


It ends there though.

 

[avernus]

I think that for those who are backing Obama, it's more because he's the best candidate for the job, rather than anything to do with what he or Hillary is or is not. There may well be people not voting for Hillary because she's a chick, but you know, people who would not vote for a woman just because she's a woman may also be the sort of people who wouldn't vote for a black dude, either. Sexism and racism are not exactly distant relations.

I think people who are conscious of the needs and issues important to women, minorities, the working poor, etc, are more likely to vote, not necessarily for a candidate who is part of that group, but the one most likely to look out for those needs and issues. Which I think Obama is. I mean, look at Condi -- she benefitted from affirmative action, and she shut the door behind her. That's not cool, and I don't think there are any feminists or black activists out there who would genuinely consider voting for her if she was running.

I really believe people are voting for Obama because of what he is like, because he has vision. In the last eight years, we've only had the opportunity to vote for the 'lesser of the evils', and this is the first time we've had the chance to believe in a candidate.

Of course, Gore was great, he just didn't come across with the same charisma Obama has, and it wasn't until An Inconvenient Truth and related events that people realised how much passion he actually has. Obama has that, AND an effortless way of conveying it.

yeah I suppose you're right. it's only when it was broken down into Clinton not being popular with male voters that had me feeling queasy. I think her campaign has harmed her quite a bit too and Obama's campaign has been very positive and hasn't stooped to smearing other candidates, which is refreshing.

on the subject of "a lot can happen in a few months" that actually does sound like a threat and as paranoid and conspiracy theorist it would be to take it as so, I would still feel pretty fricken nervous too.

 

[jane]

yeah I suppose you're right. it's only when it was broken down into Clinton not being popular with male voters that had me feeling queasy. I think her campaign has harmed her quite a bit too and Obama's campaign has been very positive and hasn't stooped to smearing other candidates, which is refreshing.

on the subject of "a lot can happen in a few months" that actually does sound like a threat and as paranoid and conspiracy theorist it would be to take it as so, I would still feel pretty fricken nervous too.

I think the most important point here is that Obama has been *positive*. People do respond to positivity. Despite being lunacy, Bush's campaigns have been positive, and I think that's what gets the swing voters who might be relatively centrist. Obama's just happens to be positive and NOT lunacy, which is what the Democrats should have had in 2004.


That said, there is a lot of stupid misogyny and the lame 'let's compare Obama to all the black men who don't scare the bejaysus out of us' crap, but that is bound to happen. The nasty misogyny directed at Hillary is nothing new, the people who fling it are just able to reach more people now. I'm sure she's well used to it -- women in politics very often get that shit. She got it while Bill was president because she made herself visible, while Laura Bush isn't really talked about all that much.

 

[jane]

on the subject of "a lot can happen in a few months" that actually does sound like a threat and as paranoid and conspiracy theorist it would be to take it as so, I would still feel pretty fricken nervous too.

This fucking scares the shit out of me. I don't think it's paranoid to think it at all. After all, look at what has been done up to now? Even going on the assumption that 'they' wouldn't do anything worse or more extreme than has already been done, that leaves a huge and terrifying scope for something awful and lasting and devastating for humanity.

 

[snakybus]

Condi is black in the sense she has dark skin.
And a woman in the sense she has a vagina.


It ends there though.

aaaagh, now you got me thinking about condi's vagina!

 

[pete]

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[snakybus]

On Obama - he's more "primary colours" than Hilary, both in his delivery and also in his beliefs. I actually think that's what the USA needs, and it's what the world needs in a US leader as well. Hilary's really, really smart, and has a great handle on the issues -- often more so than Obama -- but she talks (and I suspect thinks) like a civil servant, not a leader. Obama has a clear selling point against McCain: the war. Hilary doesn't. And that's what really matters here, isn't it? Over health and education, over fiscal issues? I think so anyway (though Obama has a good handle on these too, nonetheless). Obama has momentum too, which will be all the greater if he gets the nomination. If the superdelegates have any sense they'll all back him.

As for McCain, he's aiming for the whole primary colours thing as well. But I can't see him winning. Right wingers hate him, even more than they hate Hilary. And no amount of going on about how conservative he is can change this. At this stage, I reckon victory is in Obama's sights.

 

[pete]

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpBzQI_7ez8"]YouTube - Barack Obama "I inhaled frequently" "That was the point"[/ame]

Immediately after this clip ends, the host turned to camera and said "hey! wha' happen???"

 

[jane]

I'm pleased to say that potential grandparent emotional blackmail has won Obama another vote. My mom was swayed already, and my dad was sitting on the fence, but all it took was an email saying "VOTE OBAMA TOMORROW OR NO GRANDCHILDREN" to convince him to vote for the best candidate.

So that's two more Virginia primary votes, although I think he's got it sewn up there anyway. Can't hurt.

The truth is, though, I'll feel a bit safer in the world, or at least more hopeful, if we get Obama than if we get anyone else. And when it comes to going to the US, I'm only willing to consider if once it's handed over to the human beings. So it wasn't entirely blackmail, it just gave it a bit more urgency.

My mammy says she's gonna change her name to Obamamama.

 

[shower another shower]

read this. The end is near.