So, erm, that article in the Times about the bank bailout everyone is reading (2 Viewers)

[D0njo]

I dunno if leaving the union or currency would be all that useful or possible, the disordered economics and politics needs to get kicked (organised) to fuck though.. and this is neccessary now and will happen by a process of osmosis, or whathaveyou

 

[Mormon Nailer]

there's no science like the dismal science.according to this handy overview of the world we're in a bad way

http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock

we seem to have the second most debt per head of population (only iceland is worse off)
just noticed,the japanese are in a league of their own on this one.

So who does the plant owe all this debt to? Aliens?

The one thing that really really bug me about all this is there is constant advertising of the losers, but who were the winners?

I'd really love to see a deep analysis of the cashflows involved. If tens of thousands of young families are trapped in negative equity where is all that money now. Passed upward to the next generation who befitted from to the boom? Passed onward to developers? Used by those developers to leverage larger loans on estates that are now fallow? Passed on in luxury spending? Where is the 200K premium you average person paid on their new house sitting now?

Can no one answer these questions to my satisfaction?

Mormons Banking Reform Proposals:
Maximum leverage of 7 times deposits
No lending to employees
No personal guarantees larger than 5 times the individuals earnings

 

[shower another shower]

Currency has to be linked to something other than blind faith.

 

[billygannon]

Mormons Banking Reform Proposals:
Maximum leverage of 7 times deposits
No lending to employees
No personal guarantees larger than 5 times the individuals earnings

Bar the No Lending to Employees point, is that not more or less the policy used by banks for lending. That maximum leverage is 87.5% which is pretty high.

 

[shower another shower]

That maximum leverage is 87.5% which is pretty high.

thats insane.
la la land.
I believe you, but, you got a link?

 

[billygannon]

thats insane.
la la land.
I believe you, but, you got a link?

I don't. I don't care much for money anyway. Ireland is a land of

 

[shower another shower]

they print more of it every day.
no shortage of money.

 

[hugh]

we seem to have the second most debt per head of population (only iceland is worse off)
just noticed,the japanese are in a league of their own on this one.

Caught a bit of David McWilliams last night on Vincent Browne saying that defaulting on our debts is inevitable and it's better to do it now than later. He was also advocating, at least a year ago as far as I remember, that we should leave the euro. I'm not holding him up as some sort of ultimate authority on these things but it's interesting that a mainstream economist (with no particular ideological axe to grind as far as I am aware of) is taking these sorts of positions.

 

[Lili Marlene]

Good episode of This American Life this week called Toxie that deals with mortgage defaulters, more or less.

yeah so I had a listen to that, it doesn't really go into anyone who had a mortgage on a single home but if Ireland is like America then defaulting on your mortgage doesn't sound so bad does it? Certainly they had no one who was freaking out about living on the street or joining crazy US versions of "hard right, anti-Europe, anti-Traveller parties". I've no idea how similar our situations are though, and of course Irish people generally still have a massive landlord historical hangover about owning their own homes.

 

[therealjohnny]

"Wouldn't your assertion be rather more plausible were this crisis not entirely the result of your own incompetence?"

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[Lili Marlene]

"We are recovering very well, we will not need to be further bailed out, we have done massive corrections in our public debt"

 

[billygannon]

Caught a bit of David McWilliams last night on Vincent Browne saying that defaulting on our debts is inevitable and it's better to do it now than later. He was also advocating, at least a year ago as far as I remember, that we should leave the euro. I'm not holding him up as some sort of ultimate authority on these things but it's interesting that a mainstream economist (with no particular ideological axe to grind as far as I am aware of) is taking these sorts of positions.

I think the EU are desperate for Ireland to remain in the Euro. If Ireland left it's a signal to the US/China etc that the Euro can't cope with failing parts of its economy.
The Euro is fundamentally political - what underpins it is a united and peaceful Europe.
Ireland could leave it and devalue the currency and all that. But political relations in Europe would be severely damaged. Ireland would be aligning itself with the UK and the US - two countries whose manufacturing bases have been decimated over the last twenty/thirty years.
The charade of the financial markets has fallen and there is now the realisation that what actually makes a country rich is its mineral resources and its manufacturing output (hence the US and UK kicking up a huge fuss over the Chinese Yuan being pegged to the dollar).
Germany is trading itself out of recession. It makes lots of things. The UK and US have outsourced all the shitty factory jobs so they don't make anything. They're realising that now and are scrambling around to fix it.

Ireland is basically a gimp who needs to decide which set of countries are going to fuck us more gently.

 

[taubstumm]

"We are recovering very well, we will not need to be further bailed out, we have done massive corrections in our public debt"

to be honest, on a purely p.r. basis, i thought lenihan handled that pretty well. not that it helps people who can't pay their mortgages or put food on the table.

(though it may well yet turn out that he was wrong, or bluffing, or incompetent, or lying.)

(i never thought i'd see the day when i'd be defending a fianna fáil minister against paxman. jesus what's wrong with me.)

 

[taubstumm]

I think the EU are desperate for Ireland to remain in the Euro. If Ireland left it's a signal to the US/China etc that the Euro can't cope with failing parts of its economy.
The Euro is fundamentally political - what underpins it is a united and peaceful Europe.
Ireland could leave it and devalue the currency and all that. But political relations in Europe would be severely damaged. Ireland would be aligning itself with the UK and the US - two countries whose manufacturing bases have been decimated over the last twenty/thirty years.
The charade of the financial markets has fallen and there is now the realisation that what actually makes a country rich is its mineral resources and its manufacturing output (hence the US and UK kicking up a huge fuss over the Chinese Yuan being pegged to the dollar).
Germany is trading itself out of recession. It makes lots of things. The UK and US have outsourced all the shitty factory jobs so they don't make anything. They're realising that now and are scrambling around to fix it.

Ireland is basically a gimp who needs to decide which set of countries are going to fuck us more gently.

as far as i can see, there's nothing short of war or natural disaster that would see ireland abandon the euro. that much is a done deal.

 

[hugh]

yeah so I had a listen to that, it doesn't really go into anyone who had a mortgage on a single home but if Ireland is like America then defaulting on your mortgage doesn't sound so bad does it? Certainly they had no one who was freaking out about living on the street or joining crazy US versions of "hard right, anti-Europe, anti-Traveller parties". I've no idea how similar our situations are though, and of course Irish people generally still have a massive landlord historical hangover about owning their own homes.

The US seems to me much more forgiving about debt in general though. As an individual you can file for bankruptcy, effectively default on your debts, and have a clean credit record within a few years. In Ireland it's a millstone around your neck for the rest of your life. They are much better about making it possible for people (and businesses) to "start over" ..... as I understand it anyway.

 

[hugh]

I think the EU are desperate for Ireland to remain in the Euro. If Ireland left it's a signal to the US/China etc that the Euro can't cope with failing parts of its economy.
The Euro is fundamentally political - what underpins it is a united and peaceful Europe.
Ireland could leave it and devalue the currency and all that. But political relations in Europe would be severely damaged. Ireland would be aligning itself with the UK and the US - two countries whose manufacturing bases have been decimated over the last twenty/thirty years.
The charade of the financial markets has fallen and there is now the realisation that what actually makes a country rich is its mineral resources and its manufacturing output (hence the US and UK kicking up a huge fuss over the Chinese Yuan being pegged to the dollar).
Germany is trading itself out of recession. It makes lots of things. The UK and US have outsourced all the shitty factory jobs so they don't make anything. They're realising that now and are scrambling around to fix it.

Ireland is basically a gimp who needs to decide which set of countries are going to fuck us more gently.

I agree with all that. The thing is though, surely the fact that the EU are so desperate to salvage things in Ireland is something that gives us some bargaining power? If we had some political leaders who actually had any balls could they not stand up and say to the EU "Look lads - we really can't pay back all this money. Sorry about that. There's two options there. Either you help us out with it properly (in some sort of reasonable way that doesn't fuck our economy for the next 20 years that is) or else we are going to leave the euro and default on our debts. Which is it gonna be?"

 

[billygannon]

I agree with all that. The thing is though, surely the fact that the EU are so desperate to salvage things in Ireland is something that gives us some bargaining power? If we had some political leaders who actually had any balls could they not stand up and say to the EU "Look lads - we really can't pay back all this money. Sorry about that. There's two options there. Either you help us out with it properly (in some sort of reasonable way that doesn't fuck our economy for the next 20 years that is) or else we are going to leave the euro and default on our debts. Which is it gonna be?"

I think they're doing that. It's all a song and dance routine.

Time for a collective!

 

[Scientician 0.8]

The US seems to me much more forgiving about debt in general though. As an individual you can file for bankruptcy, effectively default on your debts, and have a clean credit record within a few years. In Ireland it's a millstone around your neck for the rest of your life. They are much better about making it possible for people (and businesses) to "start over" ..... as I understand it anyway.

Yeah in the US your credit rating resets after 7 years. If you get into massive arrears there and declare bankruptcy it can take you less than a decade to get to the point where you could getting another mortgage.

 

[Mormon Nailer]

to be honest, on a purely p.r. basis, i thought lenihan handled that pretty well. not that it helps people who can't pay their mortgages or put food on the table.

(though it may well yet turn out that he was wrong, or bluffing, or incompetent, or lying.)

(i never thought i'd see the day when i'd be defending a fianna fáil minister against paxman. jesus what's wrong with me.)

There is something very patronising about Paxman whenever he interviews an Irish minister. I know he interviews UK politicians identically, yet he always comes across as a cunt whenever it's an Irish politician he is talking to.

I think it has something to do with that tone being fiar game when it's one of his own, but it sounds wrong when it's applied to an Irish person, there is too much history there for it to be appropriate.

 

[nEiLo]

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