European and local elections 2024 (12 Viewers)

[magicbastarder]

east germany has always been like that though.

 

[dudley]

Urgh, Niall Boylan looking more likely as of count 4.

 

[JohnnyRaz]

c'mere - anyone have a take on how the greens are likely to do when it's all closed out?

Look like they are likely to loose more than half their seats locally based on 2019 and possibly an MEP also.

Wonder how much of this is votes migrating back to FF/FG, and how much migrating elsewhere (i.e SD) - although local elections can be very much personality driven.

The focus of analysis has been all on SF not doing as well as expected, FF/FG and the fash.

 

[magicbastarder]

Urgh, Niall Boylan looking more likely as of count 4.

Lots of anti immigration loonies to transfer to him as they're eliminated. Cuffed should benefit most from cafolla being eliminated, you'd expect. I think he's next to go.

 

[magicbastarder]

Only 417 first preference votes separating FF and FG nationwide

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[pete]

Only 417 first preference votes separating FF and FG nationwide

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“Popular vote” ffs.

Go home, yank.

 

[ann post]

Boylan is likely to go into 3rd for a while and then stall on votes soon after.

 

[magicbastarder]

Yeah, things will start to get interesting when gibney and smith etc. are eliminated.

 

[nuke terrorist]

The Euro counters in Cork better get a move on, like

 

[ann post]

S&Dor green would be possibly the best outcome.
EPP doing numbers, will want two part coalition.
Already in Coaltion with S&D/green so it looks good to stay in that formation.

alternately S&D/Green fade off and it's some EPP/Right wing anti europe fuckery

 

[Unicron]

Boylan is likely to go into 3rd for a while and then stall on votes soon after.

Yeah, he's at 32,000 approx and there's about 18,000 far right votes below him with Steenson/IFP/Philip Dwyer. There's another 11,000 that he might do well from out of the Aontu. Hard to know if he'll be transfer friendly from elsewhere. Might he be on mid 40,000s to low 50's by then

Lynn Boylan should get the bulk of Doolin's transfers when he goes, might get some off of Ogle in this count. Might get numbers from the Aontu rep. low mid 40s by the time that happens.

SD transfers might do something for Cuffe and AOR but neither will be hitting 40k by then

Between Ogle and Smith Daly might be in the mid 40 to 50k range, Lynn Boylan might do well from here? Daly might get some of Steenson's vote from a "burn it all down" cohort.

You'd imagine that whoever goes out of Cuffe and AOR would be quite transfer friendly to each other.

I think it'll come down to whether or not people are transferring down far enough to not have their votes drop out and have that aid Boylan.

 

[ann post]

I was transfer watching in the locals yesterday and they were essentialy chaos - the right wing internet weirdos will mostly transfer to each other but at the same time nearly all of them were transferring across the spectrum in the west - basically they seem to do a protest vote of whoever's in the hotel burning whatsapp group and then a real vote a few numbers down as they realise they aren't on the internet. The first woman of colour on a galway council got over the line with Aontú transfers like.

 

[ann post]

I think it'll come down to whether or not people are transferring down far enough to not have their votes drop out and have that aid Boylan.

That'll be huge in MNW - i struggled to about 15/16 but i've notion a lot of people would be out by ten counts.

 

[Unicron]

That'll be huge in MNW - i struggled to about 15/16 but i've notion a lot of people would be out by ten counts.

Yeah, I think I made it to 16. I expect my vote to eventually land on Ming and stay there.

 

[Unicron]

Between Ogle and Smith Daly might be in the mid 40 to 50k range, Lynn Boylan might do well from here? Daly might get some of Steenson's vote from a "burn it all down" cohort.

Daly didn't do great from Ogle's transfers, which bounced around in a lot of directions, mostly to Smith and surprisingly Steenson.

Have no sense where Al Qadri's votes will go.

 

[ann post]

SF could overtake Aunto in the lower rungs which migh push boylan over the line

 

[ann post]

I'll probably sit up late refreshing that stupid page, only to refresh a slightly different one tomorrow.

Good times.

 

[ann post]

Also those giant papers for MNW are defo gonna make us look like tits in europe by about wed evenign

 

[ann post]

Anywhooo before anythings even half over with zero evidence as of yet to back it up.
In ireland anywhoo these boylans, new fangled right wing hardline types, all bluster and going to save ireland from europe by being completely clueless about european goings on and applying for a job there in the most public way possible.

Like i know right wing/conservative people exist - and for the most part just want 'normal' or something and don't wildly give a shit otherwise - but otherwise are we getting a weather check on how many people reallllly didn't come out of lockdown in good shape?

Looking at dublin (count 10 here) - It's looking at about 10% give or take on the voting for weirdos scale here. 5% of people came out of lockdown like a tree bent in the wind, looking to put it all right by having a tantrum at adult scale.

Fair enough.

EDIT: it was 10% of voters, it's more like 5% of the possible voters/election district.

 

[magicbastarder]

I'm hearing lots of stories about how many votes were spoiled, and not deliberately so.

E.g.

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