US Election 2020 (1 Viewer)

[Jerry Twig]

But really the huge difference between now and 2016 is that this election will be a referendum on Trump's own first term.

Ergo

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[flashback]

From the Tory American on another forum (who unsurprisingly is weasling on his "yeah I'll vote for Biden" stance), this is not remotely worrying ...

"
there is a hardcore ammo shortage in the country right now. Cabelas, Bass Pro, any major website is absolutely sold out of every caliber. Your dedicated websites to ammo are sold out of the common calibers and the uncommon ones are super expensive.

Your best option is going to a gun store and most of them are limiting you to 1 box and it's very very expensive.

I did find gunbroker.com which is like an ebay for ammo and guns...you bid on people's private inventory.....and there's some hardcore price gouging happening on it but people are still buying it.

"

Obvious lies, with a side of advertising. I just went to two online places and put 1000 bullets into my cart in both of them (free shipping!)

One thing America is not running out of, and that's guns and ammo. Unless the jews get their way.

 

[chris d]

that does sound a bit like the lads that told me ireland was running out of cans in in May, because of all the cans we were buying with the pubs shut.

 

[nuke terrorist]

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'' This is Gorilla Monsoon saying so long everyone''

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RIP Gene and Rocky too.

would love too see Vince McMahon kick Trump's head in.

 

[Lili Marlene]

Haha

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[Lili Marlene]

Trump's gonna win, and big. I'm calling it now. Two biggest indicators for me have been:

- Centrist media ridiculing the RNC, saying nobody was showing up, etc, which I guess is echoing the (let's face it) inconsequential lefty media such as Young Turks etc that most of us here probably subscribe to. That'll trigger anyone vaguely right of centre (conservative, right-winger, religious or far-right) or even far left to vote for Trump regardless of whether they like him or not, as bizzarely he'll still be "the underdog". It's like Rocky 5, "My ring is outside." We all want Rocky to win, even though he was already the champ.
- Bookie odds, which were slanted towards Biden a few weeks ago, now beginning (I think ) to trend back in the other direction, and it's August.

Other observations: lefties in general are more prone to the bubble effect as they are better, in general, at reading and writing (essential for internet bubbles) so spend more time online and are also nerds, therefore more easily influenced by stupid internet crap like "Biden can't lose". Also, lefties, when they're underdogs, are more likely to come out moaning first, fighting (fair) second. Righties, when they're underdogs, although quite moany, are generally more likely to fight, and fight dirty. Again, it's like Rocky 5, fighting dirty.

You can all come back when this is over and tell me how right I was.

RIght i've been thinking about this and while your criticism of internet bubbles on the left is correct, and all liberal outlets talking about the election (NYTimes, Newyorker, Atlantic etc.) can be fairly safely ignored as talking to no-one but themselves, I do think Trump is gonna lose this election for the following reasons:

1) He is not popular; never has been, and is dependent on the structures of power to hold him up. This is a very fragile "populist" who was only, what, a few hundred thousand votes away from losing last time?
2) He is basically campaigning on the traditional republican ticket now - law and order and the Dems are all communists. This works well with the people who are gonna vote for you anyway but no one else is fooled.
3) Most of the weirder stuff that gave him an edge in 2016 (The protest vote against the establishment, the anti-war stance he had, bringing American jobs back, build the wall) is gone, sure the sexism and racism is still there but people who believe he won on pure sexism or racism are a pretty small case. More white women voted for him than for Hillary...
4) No one believes Biden is an extreme left radical. He's a grandfather figure who is liked, despite his 50 years of hideous policymaking.
5) He's not handling Covid well. His side has his protesters like how they have the Qanon people but they're not enough, anyone who voted for him because "he's a businessman and America should be a business" sees him running the business of America badly.

I mean, Biden might collapse onstage as well, can't count out that kind of thing, but if things stay as they are I think Trump will lose.

I'll probably be wrong but may as well put a flag in the ground and see what happens

 

[magicbastarder]

what happens if biden did keel over now?
are the internal dem rules that harris would automatically assume the candidacy? or would they restart the candidate selection process?

also, on a federal level, they'd still be able to nominate a new candidate at this stage?

 

[snakybus]

RIght i've been thinking about this and while your criticism of internet bubbles on the left is correct, and all liberal outlets talking about the election (NYTimes, Newyorker, Atlantic etc.) can be fairly safely ignored as talking to no-one but themselves, I do think Trump is gonna lose this election for the following reasons:

1) He is not popular; never has been, and is dependent on the structures of power to hold him up. This is a very fragile "populist" who was only, what, a few hundred thousand votes away from losing last time?
2) He is basically campaigning on the traditional republican ticket now - law and order and the Dems are all communists. This works well with the people who are gonna vote for you anyway but no one else is fooled.
3) Most of the weirder stuff that gave him an edge in 2016 (The protest vote against the establishment, the anti-war stance he had, bringing American jobs back, build the wall) is gone, sure the sexism and racism is still there but people who believe he won on pure sexism or racism are a pretty small case. More white women voted for him than for Hillary...
4) No one believes Biden is an extreme left radical. He's a grandfather figure who is liked, despite his 50 years of hideous policymaking.
5) He's not handling Covid well. His side has his protesters like how they have the Qanon people but they're not enough, anyone who voted for him because "he's a businessman and America should be a business" sees him running the business of America badly.

I mean, Biden might collapse onstage as well, can't count out that kind of thing, but if things stay as they are I think Trump will lose.

I'll probably be wrong but may as well put a flag in the ground and see what happens

All valid points that I'm willing to concede so long as you you tell me "You were right, Snaky" in November, when I am. And my only counterpoint is that bookie's odds are now the same for both of these old fogies.

Regarding what one might actually want to happen, is there something to be said for four more years of Trump finally destroying America? Though I don't think that would actually happen.

 

[Lili Marlene]

All valid points that I'm willing to concede so long as you you tell me "You were right, Snaky" in November, when I am. And my only counterpoint is that bookie's odds are now the same for both of these old fogies.

Regarding what one might actually want to happen, is there something to be said for four more years of Trump finally destroying America? Though I don't think that would actually happen.

God I dunno, I mean if the Dems win they're gonna continue to think that Biden's last gasp of end-of-history politics is actually business as normal and won't change a thing in 2024. If they lose they might actually consider their positions (or blame Russia again I guess).

Also, in all honesty, I don't live in the USA so i'm gonna look at their foreign policy and ask who is more likely to start another coup in Venezuela and get it right this time? With the accompanying death toll.

I'm not especially up for either side. Biden is a nice guy, Trump is not? I guess that's all we got. I honestly can't decide which is worse. It's all very well going "But Trump emboldens the right" but the Dems are great at bombing the shit out of countries around the world and calling it peace... if we're talking straight up morals, i.e. "Vote for the good guy," Americans don't mean more to me than Venezualans and Trump has not been especially eager to wage war.

 

[flashback]

RIght i've been thinking about this and while your criticism of internet bubbles on the left is correct, and all liberal outlets talking about the election (NYTimes, Newyorker, Atlantic etc.) can be fairly safely ignored as talking to no-one but themselves, I do think Trump is gonna lose this election for the following reasons:

1) He is not popular; never has been, and is dependent on the structures of power to hold him up. This is a very fragile "populist" who was only, what, a few hundred thousand votes away from losing last time?
2) He is basically campaigning on the traditional republican ticket now - law and order and the Dems are all communists. This works well with the people who are gonna vote for you anyway but no one else is fooled.
3) Most of the weirder stuff that gave him an edge in 2016 (The protest vote against the establishment, the anti-war stance he had, bringing American jobs back, build the wall) is gone, sure the sexism and racism is still there but people who believe he won on pure sexism or racism are a pretty small case. More white women voted for him than for Hillary...
4) No one believes Biden is an extreme left radical. He's a grandfather figure who is liked, despite his 50 years of hideous policymaking.
5) He's not handling Covid well. His side has his protesters like how they have the Qanon people but they're not enough, anyone who voted for him because "he's a businessman and America should be a business" sees him running the business of America badly.

I mean, Biden might collapse onstage as well, can't count out that kind of thing, but if things stay as they are I think Trump will lose.

I'll probably be wrong but may as well put a flag in the ground and see what happens

If I was given 50 Euro and told put it on a candidate, I'd put it on Fucks Sake Biden.

Having said that I think we're overthinking why people vote for Trump. I don't think it has to do with his policies, or walls, or jobs. I think all of those reasons are mentioned when GOP voters are asked to justify their choice, but that logic is applied post decision.

In their mind they have a picture of the kind of person who votes Dem. In the same way we have an image of the kind of person who drives a Jag, it doesn't really matter who we see getting out of any one Jag, we just think that aspiring Jeremy Clarkson, aspiring upper middle class, twats (or the ironically cool hipster reflection of this persona) drive Jags. It doesn't matter if Jag designed a lovely looking car once, or are involved in F1 (right?) alongside Toyota and BMW. Jags are Jags, and Jag drivers are twats.

And Dems are a kind of liberal toe curling equivalent of Karens, who get up in your business, tell you how to drink your coffee, steal your guns, and demand you confront the fact that while you watch shemale porn once your wife's gone to bed you still get angry about The Queers.

And that's why Trump never really gets below 40%. It doesn't matter what he does, what the GOP does, or any facts. The decision is made up front, and justifications are applied afterwards.

 

[egg_]

In their mind they have a picture of the kind of person who votes Dem. In the same way we have an image of the kind of person who drives a Jag

... or the kind of person who votes GOP

I think you're right that most votes are decided like this.

 

[Lili Marlene]

If I was given 50 Euro and told put it on a candidate, I'd put it on Fucks Sake Biden.

Having said that I think we're overthinking why people vote for Trump. I don't think it has to do with his policies, or walls, or jobs. I think all of those reasons are mentioned when GOP voters are asked to justify their choice, but that logic is applied post decision.

In their mind they have a picture of the kind of person who votes Dem. In the same way we have an image of the kind of person who drives a Jag, it doesn't really matter who we see getting out of any one Jag, we just think that aspiring Jeremy Clarkson, aspiring upper middle class, twats (or the ironically cool hipster reflection of this persona) drive Jags. It doesn't matter if Jag designed a lovely looking car once, or are involved in F1 (right?) alongside Toyota and BMW. Jags are Jags, and Jag drivers are twats.

And Dems are a kind of liberal toe curling equivalent of Karens, who get up in your business, tell you how to drink your coffee, steal your guns, and demand you confront the fact that while you watch shemale porn once your wife's gone to bed you still get angry about The Queers.

And that's why Trump never really gets below 40%. It doesn't matter what he does, what the GOP does, or any facts. The decision is made up front, and justifications are applied afterwards.

Well yeah, i'm working off the assumption that 95% of people who vote are decided already - and there'll be no changing that - then there's a tiny amount who are swing voters, and probably a larger amount who likely won't vote but would come out for someone exciting like Obama or, arguably, Trump in 2016. I'm trying to gesture towards the more concrete proposals he was running on vs. the culture war stuff that got these people out because I think the culture war stuff is just the two already decided parties shouting at each other.

If that is broadly accurate, and I realize that "energy" is impossible to quantify accurately, but it seems to me that the energy of the Trump 2016 campaign is gone and that could sink him since it was that energy that got him over the finish line in the first place.

 

[Lili Marlene]

We'll see though, I mean christ, the Biden campaign mostly involves not letting him talk.

 

[flashback]

We'll see though, I mean christ, the Biden campaign mostly involves not letting him talk.

Well, you've a lad who's saying things which make the case why you should not vote for Trump better than anyone else on the planet in the shape of Trump himself.

Biden is a shit candidate. It's hard to believe they don't know that. Telling him to keep his mask on, read the script, and STFU would be what I'd be suggesting too. The chances Biden's going to say something that makes his case better than Trump can are low compared to the chances he says something that pisses people off.

 

[hugh]

I'm not especially up for either side. Biden is a nice guy, Trump is not? I guess that's all we got. I honestly can't decide which is worse. It's all very well going "But Trump emboldens the right" but the Dems are great at bombing the shit out of countries around the world and calling it peace... if we're talking straight up morals, i.e. "Vote for the good guy," Americans don't mean more to me than Venezualans and Trump has not been especially eager to wage war.

In recent history ... sure .... the Dems have been more enthusiastic about foreign "adventures" but that's in comparison to Trump's very-out-of-kilter isolationism. Taking the longer view, it's the Republicans that invaded Iraq and Afghanistan so most of the grander gestures in that direction have been on their watch (though I know that's the Republican party of the Bushes as opposed to that of Trump which are very different beasts).

I totally hear you about the Venezualans vs. American's thing but even taking a very clinical stance like that, given the entanglements with America we have (economically, historically, socially) and its influence globally, should we have more of an interest in what happens there than what happens in Venezuela? Or is that just another way of saying "fuck the Venezuelans"?

 

[magicbastarder]

i think trump is less likely to invade the sort of countries the US usually invades, mainly because he tends to like the people in charge in those countries.

 

[chris d]

It is very difficult watching smug white supremacists strutting about with impunity over there.

 

[Lili Marlene]

In recent history ... sure .... the Dems have been more enthusiastic about foreign "adventures" but that's in comparison to Trump's very-out-of-kilter isolationism. Taking the longer view, it's the Republicans that invaded Iraq and Afghanistan so most of the grander gestures in that direction have been on their watch (though I know that's the Republican party of the Bushes as opposed to that of Trump which are very different beasts).

I'll take Trump's incompetent saying the loud part quiet so you can't get anything done over the Dems' successful coups. Iraq and Afghanistan are one thing, what happened during Hillary Clinton's time as secretary of state is horrific as well. Not all her fault of course but i'll go with the guy fucking it up over, you know,the people who led to open air slave markets in Libya. An efficient Republican is likely gonna be worse than an efficient Democrat though.

I totally hear you about the Venezualans vs. American's thing but even taking a very clinical stance like that, given the entanglements with America we have (economically, historically, socially) and its influence globally, should we have more of an interest in what happens there than what happens in Venezuela? Or is that just another way of saying "fuck the Venezuelans"?

Nah I know what you're saying, we're very reliant on the US economically (i'll pass on the social thing, one country is as good as another), too reliant imho although I don't have a quick solution to that. I just think we (or at least I) sometimes need a reminder that US citizens are not more human that anyone else. I don't expect any Americans to vote outside their own self-interests but my self-interests looking in don't need to align with theirs either.

 

[pete]

Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’

The president has repeatedly disparaged the intelligence of service members, and asked that wounded veterans be kept out of military parades, multiple sources tell The Atlantic.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[therealjohnny]

Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’

The president has repeatedly disparaged the intelligence of service members, and asked that wounded veterans be kept out of military parades, multiple sources tell The Atlantic.

www.theatlantic.com

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