Oh, shit. That's right next to Lublin.
Jesus Christ... reminds me of that cartoon where they were rating headache levels. The scale went from "Mild Discomfort", to "Searing Pain", all the way up to "Having a border with Russia".
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The Russian invasion of Ukraine (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter rettucs
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Jesus Christ... reminds me of that cartoon where they were rating headache levels. The scale went from "Mild Discomfort", to "Searing Pain", all the way up to "Having a border with Russia".
coup?
www.theguardian.com
Russia investigates Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’ after call for attack on military
FSB opens criminal case after Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia’s military of rocket attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stopped
what time is Swan Lake on at?
coup?
Russia investigates Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’ after call for attack on military
FSB opens criminal case after Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia’s military of rocket attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stopped
Prigozhin is a political showman — Silvio Berlusconi crossed with Douglas Macarthur, tossing out hyper-patriot one-liners
I’d be more worried about what’ll happen at ZNPP in the next couple of weeks — someone might blow things up and try to blame the russians
interesting.
So rolling this stuff around Moscow is presumably meant to send scary feelings through the more important Moscow / St PB.
So, according to our boy Vlad Vexler, the St Petersburg/Moscow crew are the more elite wealthy crew, and they have been kept more at arms length from the war. The periphery states have been fired into the front lines, and blown to fuck on the whole.
This kind of craic implies that they are involved increasingly in the war too.
Man, what a fuck up. Now they're rolling tanks in Moscow, to try to scare the populous into some shape. All because... Putin decided he wanted Ukraine?
The bodycount. These horrific scenes in trenches. For nothing. There's nothing to be won here.
it's a 12 hour drive from where they are now to moscow for the record, in a regular car rather than in a bunch of military crawlers
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This guy is a scumbag cosplaying being a general while sending prisoners into a meat grinder
The whole state apparatus is a criminal enterprise
They all deserve each other
Hopefully the blowback outside Russia will be minimal
What a total shitshow of a country and a regime though. Good God.
The whole state apparatus is a criminal enterprise
They all deserve each other
Hopefully the blowback outside Russia will be minimal
What a total shitshow of a country and a regime though. Good God.
could play out close to this now/
Not sure how this could lead to deescalation? He can’t blame Yevgeny for the general situation in the first place.
Yevgeny has abandoned the Frontline and attacked mother Russia
That shouldn't be too hard to spin when you own everything
Obviously- and it’s been a likelyhood that something like this would happen for a while. (And probably in the military’s interests to be able to take him out, so possibly even this situation has been allowed to get to this point, if not actively facilitated)
So we’ll see a lot of smoke and noise, and eventually Yevgenys head on a spike..
So how is that Putins route to de escalate?
Wagner didn’t invade Ukraine unilaterally, and prizogins line has been that the military and elite have been lying to putin to cover their own arses from the start. Also Wagner central to whatever limited success the Russians have had in Ukraine recently.
I’m not disagreeing with you, just interested in how you see this been spun?
Putin is slippery fish. it'll be all 'misinformation from generals about nazis in ukraine and unpatriotic intelligence failures, combined with wagner being a traitor for day one'
now granted thats if the coup is unsuccessful.
I'm curious if west just bought wagner. could be cheaper than another pile of missiles.
At present i'd suspect the russians left in ukraine will collapse and retreat which technically a de-escalation.
But to answer what you are asking - Putin can only back down with a decent scapegoat which he has now. Even better he's literally actually under attack now. His only option before wagner turning was to win or lose. It might not happen, bit in the flux of the coup a few diplomatic avenues appear.
possible outcomes:
Wagner beats putin, blames him for everything, retreats in the short term from ukraine to consilidate new wealth.
Putin beats wagner on moscows doorstep - putin a hero for saving moscow from the traitor etc etc.
In either outisde of deploying a nuke i think the fight leaves ukraine?
He looks angry, not that he ever really doesn't
I’d agree they could try to use this as a scapegoat for a failure/collapse in the coming months.. not so sure about using it as an excuse to pull out.
I guess it depends on how successful the Russians are at containing this, and if it escalates into a more general conflict.
One way or another, the Ukrainians are probably loving this
I guess it depends on how successful the Russians are at containing this, and if it escalates into a more general conflict.
One way or another, the Ukrainians are probably loving this
Ok, first response was this is a phony Turkey style coup, that's designed to fail and consolidate power for Putin. Because my reflex is to not believe anything that involves Russia, and that everything is a lie underpinning some other sinister play. Which is telling, in the sense that Western media is either conspiring and wrong, or Russia is genuinely lies turtles-all-the-way-down style.
But in this case "this coup is a lie" is wrong I think. This looks like an actual thing? Even if Putin puts this down, and I'm assuming he will, he needs to kill Prigozhin at the very least. That means Prigozhin is fighting for his life. (Unless you really go nuts in the conspiracy thing.) You have to grant the reality that Prigozhin is in charge of a reasonable at least fighting force, so potentially this is going to be expensive.
But then even if he puts it down I don't even think it leaves Putin in a stronger position. It makes him look like he has poor judgement, makes poor strategic decisions, and has run a shit war which looks to be gaining very little worth fighting for.
Then I kinda circled back and realised I don't care all that much. Only that pulling Wagner away from Ukraine means that they are less involved with killing Ukrainians.
Then my final thought was I was surprised at how much I apparently dislike Russia, and to what extent that's again been led by western propaganda, and what extent that's reasonable.
But in this case "this coup is a lie" is wrong I think. This looks like an actual thing? Even if Putin puts this down, and I'm assuming he will, he needs to kill Prigozhin at the very least. That means Prigozhin is fighting for his life. (Unless you really go nuts in the conspiracy thing.) You have to grant the reality that Prigozhin is in charge of a reasonable at least fighting force, so potentially this is going to be expensive.
But then even if he puts it down I don't even think it leaves Putin in a stronger position. It makes him look like he has poor judgement, makes poor strategic decisions, and has run a shit war which looks to be gaining very little worth fighting for.
Then I kinda circled back and realised I don't care all that much. Only that pulling Wagner away from Ukraine means that they are less involved with killing Ukrainians.
Then my final thought was I was surprised at how much I apparently dislike Russia, and to what extent that's again been led by western propaganda, and what extent that's reasonable.
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Russia I imagine would have some force to counter this. All the time they have been sending untrained conscripts and prisoners to Ukraine or soldiers from the more remote regions of the federation. So presumably in the meantime have held on to their more regular military but maybe that itself is badly depleted. Either way it looks like there will be some fighting on the streets in Russia. Putin looks a little week and nervous Yevgeny/Eugene seems to have a plan of some sort ?
At some point we need to entertain the possibility that maybe Putin isn't some 19D chess player, whose seen realities on the backs of realities, and played all dimensions perfectly. Because things are starting to look like a shit show, even by Russian shit show standards.
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