oh yeah, from the perspective of the rest of the world Putin's never coming back from this. He'll likely never set foot outside of Russia again, Russia is going to be a pariah state at best for the period of time he's running the show.good point - I hadn't factored in that in my post above - but having 'non state actors' on the ground to do ones dirty work may be helpful.
however - I don't think they'd (ie Putin and co.) give a fuck what the rest of the world thinks. they are already well into major war crimes territory. and we haven't even got close to the inevitable reprisals etc. on civilians in the areas they are occupying. I think Putin is already at the point where he had nothing to lose. It's grind out a dirty victory of sorts over a couple of years, or escalate.
I meant from the perspective of military reprisals. A chemical incident in Kyiv for example will generate a response, it's just not clear what that response is. At the moment money and humanitarian aid is being sent, some weapons are being supplied, some talk of Migs getting sent in exists. This is all a result of the actions Russia has taken so far, so I'd imagine Putin is working out what the cost/benefit of upping the ante and committing atrocities. What response will these actions induce?
And this calculus goes all the way up to what happens if I nuke population centers in Ukraine. When does that become viable. He knows that there's a line that will escalate things into nuclear exchange, but where is that line.
You'd like to believe there's someone who can put the brakes on. Or that he's not deranged as he's implying he is. That would be a nice thing to believe.