BREXIT (2 Viewers)

therealjohnny

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On a team call at work. For the first time it's been mentioned that a project might not go ahead as planned due to Brexit
 

billygannon

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It looks like May is going to send a letter to the EU asking for an extension until the end of June.
The EU are furious because they're being given less than 24 hours to consider this before their conference tomorrow.

Right now... it looks like May will be told by the EU that either the Withdrawal Agreement is accepted by the UK next week or there is no deal.
All bets are off if there's a no deal - Europe and Ireland are kind of prepared... Britain isn't. I've no idea what'll happen with the north of Ireland. No one does.
The UK are saying they won't put up borders, but the EU will challenge them about this through the WTO (it's illegal under WTO rules). Because the UK will be on its knees, I reckon they'll have to accept an "East/West" border (i.e. customs checks in British ports and NI effectively staying in the EU).

It appears that Theresa May has absolutely no idea what's going on. I know this is obvious... in that you think every leader is delusional... but May's incompetence is another level. Her and Cameron are perhaps two of the most stupid leaders in history.
 

Bernie Lomax

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It looks like May is going to send a letter to the EU asking for an extension until the end of June.
The EU are furious because they're being given less than 24 hours to consider this before their conference tomorrow.

Right now... it looks like May will be told by the EU that either the Withdrawal Agreement is accepted by the UK next week or there is no deal.
All bets are off if there's a no deal - Europe and Ireland are kind of prepared... Britain isn't. I've no idea what'll happen with the north of Ireland. No one does.
The UK are saying they won't put up borders, but the EU will challenge them about this through the WTO (it's illegal under WTO rules). Because the UK will be on its knees, I reckon they'll have to accept an "East/West" border (i.e. customs checks in British ports and NI effectively staying in the EU).

It appears that Theresa May has absolutely no idea what's going on. I know this is obvious... in that you think every leader is delusional... but May's incompetence is another level. Her and Cameron are perhaps two of the most stupid leaders in history.
What are the chances of a general election?
 

Anthony

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Kids from the school that I'm on the BOM of are in Italy at the moment with kids from other parts of the EU. A UK school could not take part in the programme because of Brexit.
 

billygannon

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This extension until the end of June is to allow the UK Parliament to pass the Withdrawal Agreement in to UK law.

Basically the EU will tell the UK that it's one of the following:
  • Withdrawal Agreement with an extension to the end of June
  • A long extension (e.g. 12 months), but the UK will need to have either a General Election or another Referendum
  • No deal
The UK Parliament has explicitly voted against a "No Deal". The Tories are saying no longer than 3 months. Labour are all over the place.

I reckon May will put the Withdrawal Agreement vote back to Parliament next Tuesday (26th March). The difference between this vote and the previous one is that it'll be clear what the extension period will be.

What the EU want is something called an indicative vote from the UK parliament. This is where various options are put to all MPs (regardless of party) and they vote on them - and the one with the most votes is what the UK would ask for (the indications is that most MPs would favour something called Norway ++). But that's unlikely to happen because the leaders of the Tories and Labour are ridiculous.

This is like the Suez crisis, except 10 times worse. Britain won't recover from this, no matter what happens.
 

Unicron

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Or revoking Article 50 even? I thought parliament had committed to taking no deal off the table?
That vote (like the fucking referendum in the first place) was non-binding. If they do want to respect that vote then they probably will have to revoke (prior to the 29th).

Bercow properly fucked her plan, all the talk of "it's either my deal or we risk no Brexit at all" was probably a move to try and strongarm leavers into voting for it in the third meaningful vote. Though I'm not sure she'd have got it past anyway.

If she asked for the short extension to hold a referendum which would give a final answer I don't think that'd be an unreasonable request but by asking for it till June takes them past the euro elections and the UK would be obliged to hold them. What a fucking mess.

I'm starting to think that my work should think about doing some brexit prep.

It appears that Theresa May has absolutely no idea what's going on. I know this is obvious... in that you think every leader is delusional... but May's incompetence is another level. Her and Cameron are perhaps two of the most stupid leaders in history.
Let's not let her stupidity cloud how big an arsehole she also is. Though that was probably more apparent when she was Home Secretary. Though there does appear to be a strain of criticism of how she's handled this, and this comes from labour as well as the tory brexiteers that she just hasn't told Johnny Foreigner how it's going to be loudly and slowly enough.
 

chris d

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The general atmosphere in the UK must be something else. How are regular pro-European people coping with this.
 

billygannon

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It's not "Berlin Wall" level stuff... but we are watching some very significant events in the history of these islands unfold.

British politics has been based on long-standing traditions and processes. It seemed to be working fine, mainly because Britain has been rich for centuries.
It was the wealthiest country in the world in the 19th century and for the first half of the 20th it was one of the main superpowers. It had it's empire, which grossly inflated the wealth of Britain.
After World War 2 the empire collapsed, but US aid (the Marshall Plan) and the EU have partially replaced the wealth-inflating empire.

The US aren't as supportive these days and certainly US money is no longer going to pay for UK hospitals and schools (which the Marshall plan more or less did). The EU amplified the UK's wealth and influence. Now... the UK is exposed, particularly the ineffectual and unrepresentative Westminster parliament.

Basically the UK has been bullshitting the world for centuries and Brexit is exposing it all.

The mad Leavers waffle on about WTO rules. However... WTO rules don't cover services and 90% of the British economy is services (e.g. banking, insurance, legal services, telecommunications, IT etc.). There are no rules covering these so countries and trading blocs (i.e. the EU) can add on whatever tariffs and conditions they like to British service providers. Seeing as anyone can do banking or legal services etc. you can be sure Germany, France, China, Japan, Canada, the US etc are going to go to town on what London exports. It won't be cliff-edge stuff, but it'll be a death by a thousand cuts. If there's no deal, in about 10 or 15 years London will just a shell of itself.

Ireland has to realise this is happening and has to look beyond Britain. Time to start learning another language!
 

Lili Marlene

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Strikes me as some kind of karma for governments Thatcher onwards privatizing everything and setting up free trade as a non-negotiable starting point for all businesses.

So i'm (10+ years too late I know) reading Naomi Klein's The Shock Doctrine at the moment and as well as it fascinatingly predicting how the 2008 financial crisis was going to work, i'm wondering if it can be applied here, aren't the Brexiteers like Rees-Moggs basically using it as an opportunity to line their pockets? The story being that his father wrote a book about how to make a mint off a Brexit at the expense of everyone else.

 

billygannon

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Strikes me as some kind of karma for governments Thatcher onwards privatizing everything and setting up free trade as a non-negotiable starting point for all businesses.

So i'm (10+ years too late I know) reading Naomi Klein's The Shock Doctrine at the moment and as well as it fascinatingly predicting how the 2008 financial crisis was going to work, i'm wondering if it can be applied here, aren't the Brexiteers like Rees-Moggs basically using it as an opportunity to line their pockets? The story being that his father wrote a book about how to make a mint off a Brexit at the expense of everyone else.

Oh yeah... Rees-Mogg has already made something like £7 million out of this.

The Tories are kind of open about this. They want to make Britain regulation and tax free. There's no real equivalent to the Tories in any country. They genuinely think they're different from the rest of humanity. That's something they are right about.
 

Lili Marlene

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Oh yeah... Rees-Mogg has already made something like £7 million out of this.

The Tories are kind of open about this. They want to make Britain regulation and tax free. There's no real equivalent to the Tories in any country. They genuinely think they're different from the rest of humanity. That's something they are right about.
They're a very strange breed, they want all the benefits of Royalty with none of the Noblesse Obligé that's supposed to come with it, you can probably draw some comparison between that and Brexit actually.
 

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