ElderLemon
New Member
This is a rundown of my opinion of the UUP prospects in the fortcoming assembly elections. I'll add the caveat that assumptions made below are made largely on the basis of previous election performance and occasional bits of information that I come across. I'd appreciate any feedback, news or criticism from anyone who is involved or who has an interest.
You can check the following for news or info on the elections...
www.ark.ac.uk/elections
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/
www.u.tv
ANTRIM
Last Time : 2 seats each in East Antrim, North Antrim and South Antrim.
In East Antrim, the UUP look set fair to retain their two seats, but are unlikely to take a third. At the Westminster election two years ago Roy Beggs kept his seat by just over a hundred votes – with around 2,000 Alliance supporters voting tactically for him. In North Antrim, both of the UUP candidates are based in the south of the constituency where the majority of the Unionists in the constituency live. This lack of geographical spread however, might allow the DUP to hoover the still significant number of Unionist voters in the north of the constituency and put the UUP, who are already vulnerable to a strong Sinn Fein challenge, at a further disadvantage. In South Antrim as well tactical Alliance supporter voting was crucial to David Burnside’s victory, and it seems unlikely that the UUP will be in a position to challenge for an extra seat.
BELFAST
Last time : 2 seats each in East and South Belfast, 1 in North Belfast.
In North Belfast, the UUP will be under pressure to hold their only seat, with the DUP looking good for a second seat and one of the four current unionist seats almost certainly being lost to the nationalists. At least one if not two of the three non-DUP Unionists (Fred Cobain of the UUP, Fraser Agnew of the UUAP and Billy Hutchinson the PUP candidate) is going to lose out, and Cobain’s failure to hold his seat in the local elections doesn’t inspire confidence. In East Belfast the UUP has a reasonably strong ticket which should see them fend off any challenge from the DUP. 2001 saw an improved local election performance in South Belfast (against the general trend elsewhere) and on that basis they should hold their two seats. In West Belfast, Chris McGimpsey is their candidate again after coming within several hundred votes of a seat last time, but demographic change and lack of much called-for “Unionist Unity” (20% of Unionist transfers last time were non-transferable last time, and a further 5% went to nationalists; the events on the Shankill Road in the meantime are unlikely to improve those figures) means that the 1998 assembly election was probably the high water mark of Unionist electoral achievement in West Belfast as it is currently constituted.
DOWN
Last time : 3 seats in North Down, 2 seats each in Strangford and Lagan Valley and 1 seat in South Down.
In South Down, it should be as you were. In neighbouring Strangford, 3,000 tactical Alliance votes weren’t enough to prevent David McNarry losing out to the DUP in the Westminster contest, and it is unlikely despite a decent ticket that they can improve on their 1998 showing. In Lagan Valley on the other hand, Jeffrey Donaldson’s name on the ticket, along with their solid performance in the 2001 local elections, gives the UUP a real chance of a seat gain. However, it is impossible to gauge how unified the party in the constituency is, as outgoing Assembly member Ivan Davis was not reselected. North Down, that little slice of suburban England which somehow ended up in Northern Ireland, has a well-deserved reputation for idiosyncratic voting patterns. The UUP won 3 seats here in 1998, but one of those, Peter Weir, has since joined the DUP. The large number of votes cast for independent candidates in the local elections, the low turnout, and the tactical withdrawal of Alliance in the general election make it very hard to decipher the level of support for the UUP in the constituency. However, they have a decent ticket and will probably end up with around two and a half quotas on the first count, which, with good vote management should give them a good chance of winning three seats again.
FERMANAGH AND TYRONE
Last time : 2 seats in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, 1 seat each in Mid-Ulster and West Tyrone
Despite their narrow loss in the Westminster election and their two Assembly members standing down, the UUP’s historical Unionist supremacy in Fermanagh and South Tyrone is unlikely to be challenged, and they seem set to win two seats again. One UUP candidate should be returned in both Mid-Ulster and West Tyrone.
DERRY
Last time : 2 seats in East Londonderry
The DUP seem to have well and truly won the war in terms in Derry city for ownership of the one Unionist seat. In East Londonderry the UUP will have to be content with retaining their two seats.
ARMAGH
Last time : 2 seats in Upper Bann, 1 seat in Newry & Armagh
There’s a myth going around in ill-informed circles (i.e. Kevin Myers – never has so much intelligence been put to so little use) that David Trimble is going to lose his seat. It is true that the UUP have ceded a lot of ground to the DUP in the constituency since 1997 and that Trimble retained his Westminster seat by only 2,000 votes (1,000 of those being tactical SDLP supporters), but that shift in party support mainly occurred before the assembly elections in 1998, and there is nothing in the 2001 election figures to suggest anything other than the UUP will take two seats. Even if they were to drop a seat, it would be most unlikely to be Trimble’s. The UUP should hold their seat in Newry and Armagh, although the DUP will probably become the largest Unionist party in the constituency.
You can check the following for news or info on the elections...
www.ark.ac.uk/elections
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/
www.u.tv
ANTRIM
Last Time : 2 seats each in East Antrim, North Antrim and South Antrim.
In East Antrim, the UUP look set fair to retain their two seats, but are unlikely to take a third. At the Westminster election two years ago Roy Beggs kept his seat by just over a hundred votes – with around 2,000 Alliance supporters voting tactically for him. In North Antrim, both of the UUP candidates are based in the south of the constituency where the majority of the Unionists in the constituency live. This lack of geographical spread however, might allow the DUP to hoover the still significant number of Unionist voters in the north of the constituency and put the UUP, who are already vulnerable to a strong Sinn Fein challenge, at a further disadvantage. In South Antrim as well tactical Alliance supporter voting was crucial to David Burnside’s victory, and it seems unlikely that the UUP will be in a position to challenge for an extra seat.
BELFAST
Last time : 2 seats each in East and South Belfast, 1 in North Belfast.
In North Belfast, the UUP will be under pressure to hold their only seat, with the DUP looking good for a second seat and one of the four current unionist seats almost certainly being lost to the nationalists. At least one if not two of the three non-DUP Unionists (Fred Cobain of the UUP, Fraser Agnew of the UUAP and Billy Hutchinson the PUP candidate) is going to lose out, and Cobain’s failure to hold his seat in the local elections doesn’t inspire confidence. In East Belfast the UUP has a reasonably strong ticket which should see them fend off any challenge from the DUP. 2001 saw an improved local election performance in South Belfast (against the general trend elsewhere) and on that basis they should hold their two seats. In West Belfast, Chris McGimpsey is their candidate again after coming within several hundred votes of a seat last time, but demographic change and lack of much called-for “Unionist Unity” (20% of Unionist transfers last time were non-transferable last time, and a further 5% went to nationalists; the events on the Shankill Road in the meantime are unlikely to improve those figures) means that the 1998 assembly election was probably the high water mark of Unionist electoral achievement in West Belfast as it is currently constituted.
DOWN
Last time : 3 seats in North Down, 2 seats each in Strangford and Lagan Valley and 1 seat in South Down.
In South Down, it should be as you were. In neighbouring Strangford, 3,000 tactical Alliance votes weren’t enough to prevent David McNarry losing out to the DUP in the Westminster contest, and it is unlikely despite a decent ticket that they can improve on their 1998 showing. In Lagan Valley on the other hand, Jeffrey Donaldson’s name on the ticket, along with their solid performance in the 2001 local elections, gives the UUP a real chance of a seat gain. However, it is impossible to gauge how unified the party in the constituency is, as outgoing Assembly member Ivan Davis was not reselected. North Down, that little slice of suburban England which somehow ended up in Northern Ireland, has a well-deserved reputation for idiosyncratic voting patterns. The UUP won 3 seats here in 1998, but one of those, Peter Weir, has since joined the DUP. The large number of votes cast for independent candidates in the local elections, the low turnout, and the tactical withdrawal of Alliance in the general election make it very hard to decipher the level of support for the UUP in the constituency. However, they have a decent ticket and will probably end up with around two and a half quotas on the first count, which, with good vote management should give them a good chance of winning three seats again.
FERMANAGH AND TYRONE
Last time : 2 seats in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, 1 seat each in Mid-Ulster and West Tyrone
Despite their narrow loss in the Westminster election and their two Assembly members standing down, the UUP’s historical Unionist supremacy in Fermanagh and South Tyrone is unlikely to be challenged, and they seem set to win two seats again. One UUP candidate should be returned in both Mid-Ulster and West Tyrone.
DERRY
Last time : 2 seats in East Londonderry
The DUP seem to have well and truly won the war in terms in Derry city for ownership of the one Unionist seat. In East Londonderry the UUP will have to be content with retaining their two seats.
ARMAGH
Last time : 2 seats in Upper Bann, 1 seat in Newry & Armagh
There’s a myth going around in ill-informed circles (i.e. Kevin Myers – never has so much intelligence been put to so little use) that David Trimble is going to lose his seat. It is true that the UUP have ceded a lot of ground to the DUP in the constituency since 1997 and that Trimble retained his Westminster seat by only 2,000 votes (1,000 of those being tactical SDLP supporters), but that shift in party support mainly occurred before the assembly elections in 1998, and there is nothing in the 2001 election figures to suggest anything other than the UUP will take two seats. Even if they were to drop a seat, it would be most unlikely to be Trimble’s. The UUP should hold their seat in Newry and Armagh, although the DUP will probably become the largest Unionist party in the constituency.
