ElderLemon
New Member
This is a rundown of my opinion of the SDLP prospects in the fortcoming assembly elections. I'll add the caveat that assumptions made below are made largely on the basis of previous election performance and occasional bits of information that I come across. I'd appreciate any feedback, news or criticism from anyone who is involved or who has an interest.
You can check the following for news or info on the elections...
www.ark.ac.uk/elections
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/
www.u.tv
ANTRIM
Danny O’Connor took a seat against all the odds in Antrim East last time, and he will again be the party’s standard-bearer. Despite the fact he seems to be a hard-working professional politician, his fate is somewhat paradoxically more dependent on the way the votes fall for the various Unionist and Alliance candidates. Very hard one to call. In North Antrim, the SDLP have a good geographical spread in their ticket with Sean Farren (who bears a close resemblance to Frankenstein in the photo on the SDLP website) taking the North of the constituency, with Declan O’Loan based in Ballymena, but even with perfect vote management they are unlikely to be able to stop Phillip McGuigan of Sinn Fein getting between them (or above them) in the hunt for a possible second nationalist seat. In South Antrim last time, the SDLP were only several hundred votes away from a second seat but their recent election results suggest that a second seat is now extremely unlikely.
BELFAST
Current Belfast Lord Mayor Martin Morgan’s decision not to stand again for the assembly (he was just pipped for the last seat in 1998 because of an unusually large number of non-transferable votes from Sinn Fein’s Gerry Kelly’s surplus) is a blow to the SDLP’s already slim chances of taking the North Belfast seat the Nationalists are almost inevitably going to take from the Unionist parties. The two SDLP candidates, Alban McGuinness and Pat Convery are both Councillors in the Castle ward in the east of the constituency, so there is therefore no candidate in the Oldpark area (where Martin Morgan was the sole SDLP representative) in the west of the constituency where the majority of the Catholics are situated. While boundary divisions are somewhat arbitrary especially in a largely urban constituency, this factor does put the SDLP at a disadvantage and added to the significant (if not massive) lead that Sinn Fein has built up over the SDLP in the constituency recently, it is difficult to see how the SDLP could take a 2nd seat here. In Belfast East, Leo Van Es will probably have to be content with getting a vote for every day of the year, and possibly a few spare. Alex Attwood is being touted as being in danger of losing his seat in West Belfast. While he could hardly be described as the most charismatic of politicians, he has a relatively strong base in the Upper Falls and if the SDLP can enforce a sensible vote management strategy, he should be able to stay above the lowest Sinn Fein candidate and ultimately use Sinn Fein transfers to stay above whoever the Unionist challenger is. He should only be in danger if the SDLP fails to balance its vote, if there is a unified Unionist challenge (which is unlikely) and if Sinn Fein’s vote falls towards the four quota level (possible if the stories about their manipulation of the old electoral register were true) leaving them with few transfers to spare. In South Belfast too the SDLP can be reasonably confident of holding onto their two seats if they can hold their nerve and balance their vote. A Sinn Fein gain, while likely, need not be at their expense as the SDLP vote is being boosted by the influx of largely well-paid, middle-class Catholics into the constituency. The fact that their two outgoing Assembly members will be running again is also a bonus.
DOWN
Eddie McGrady’s somewhat belated decision not to run cast something of a spanner into the works in the SDLP’s preparations in South Down, but they still have two outgoing Assembly members and a councillor on their four-strong ticket. In addition, ex-assembly member PJ Bradley, who should attract a strong personal vote, is based in the same electoral area as Mick Murphy and will therefore at least keep his personal vote in check.. It would certainly be a major upset if the SDLP did not retain their three seats. Liam Logan’s running in North Down, but is unlikely to be in contention for a seat. In Strangford, infighting may well cost the party an anticipated gain as Danny McCarthy (who missed out a seat last time by less than 200 votes, and was due to run again) now won’t run in protest at the imposition of Joe Boyle, a former Independent (he failed to get elected in the 2001 local elections) from the same area of the Ards Peninsula as McCarthy was selected. In the 1998 elections, the SDLP ran two candidates from the main Catholic centres of population in the constituency; Brian Hanvey from the Carryduff area on the outskirts of South Belfast and McCarthy from the Southern end of the Ards Peninsula. This made sense as not only were these communities geographically separated, they were demographically distinct as well; Carryduff is very much a middle-class dormitory town, while the Ards Peninsula is largely rural, with dependence on the fishing and tourism industries. In the event when Hanvey was eliminated, some 85% of his transfers went to McCarthy. Quite why this time they originally decided to choose two candidates from the Ards Peninsula indicates that all is not well within the party locally, and McCarthy’s decision not to run would do nothing to dispel that assumption. On that basis, with the DUP hovering around 3 quotas, the UUP having just above two quotas, and the Alliance on one, the SDLP will need the breaks to win a seat. In Lagan Valley, Patricia Lewsley should be able to see off the challenge from SF’s Paul Butler, although she may need transfers to pull clear of him
FERMANAGH AND TYRONE
Tommy Gallagher again looks like being the sole standard-bearer for the SDLP in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, while Denis Haughey will fulfil the same role tin Mid-Ulster. West Tyrone, however, looks much more exciting, as a decent ticket with a good geographical spread (outgoing Assembly members Eugene McMenamin in Strabane and Joe Byrne near Omagh) give them at least a fighting chance of preventing Sinn Fein from taking 3 of the 4 Nationalist seats. This, however, is strong Republican territory (Sinn Fein probably got up to 65%-70% of the vote in some wards in the local elections) and they will be up against it.
DERRY
Mark Durkan takes on John Hume’s mantle in Foyle but the preparation for the election has not been smooth. Councillor Annie Courtney was originally selected to contest the constituency in the SDLP interest, but was later effectively deselected at a second convention. She’s now running as an independent in the rural part of the constituency to the south-east of Derry city, and will take votes off her former colleagues. These votes are likely however to come back in transfers, and the SDLP do have a strong, well-balanced ticket. The chances of them losing a seat are remote. In East Londonderry, however, an SDLP seat will almost certainly be surrendered to Francie Brolly of Sinn Fein.
ARMAGH
The absence of Seamus Mallon and a weak SDLP ticket (only one councillor amongst three candidates) could see the SDLP only take one seat to Sinn Fein’s three in what was previously an SDLP stronghold. Only Mallon’s personal appeal (added by some tactical Unionist voting) saw Conor Murphy of SF denied at the last Westminster election. At the same time, SF routed the SDLP at the local elections, taking 15 of the 39 seats in the constituency, compared to 12 for the SDLP. As a point of comparison in 1993 the SDLP had 17 seats to Sinn Fein’s 6. The SDLP are definitely in danger of dropping a seat here. Finally, in Upper Bann, the SDLP will hold onto their one seat.
You can check the following for news or info on the elections...
www.ark.ac.uk/elections
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/
www.u.tv
ANTRIM
Danny O’Connor took a seat against all the odds in Antrim East last time, and he will again be the party’s standard-bearer. Despite the fact he seems to be a hard-working professional politician, his fate is somewhat paradoxically more dependent on the way the votes fall for the various Unionist and Alliance candidates. Very hard one to call. In North Antrim, the SDLP have a good geographical spread in their ticket with Sean Farren (who bears a close resemblance to Frankenstein in the photo on the SDLP website) taking the North of the constituency, with Declan O’Loan based in Ballymena, but even with perfect vote management they are unlikely to be able to stop Phillip McGuigan of Sinn Fein getting between them (or above them) in the hunt for a possible second nationalist seat. In South Antrim last time, the SDLP were only several hundred votes away from a second seat but their recent election results suggest that a second seat is now extremely unlikely.
BELFAST
Current Belfast Lord Mayor Martin Morgan’s decision not to stand again for the assembly (he was just pipped for the last seat in 1998 because of an unusually large number of non-transferable votes from Sinn Fein’s Gerry Kelly’s surplus) is a blow to the SDLP’s already slim chances of taking the North Belfast seat the Nationalists are almost inevitably going to take from the Unionist parties. The two SDLP candidates, Alban McGuinness and Pat Convery are both Councillors in the Castle ward in the east of the constituency, so there is therefore no candidate in the Oldpark area (where Martin Morgan was the sole SDLP representative) in the west of the constituency where the majority of the Catholics are situated. While boundary divisions are somewhat arbitrary especially in a largely urban constituency, this factor does put the SDLP at a disadvantage and added to the significant (if not massive) lead that Sinn Fein has built up over the SDLP in the constituency recently, it is difficult to see how the SDLP could take a 2nd seat here. In Belfast East, Leo Van Es will probably have to be content with getting a vote for every day of the year, and possibly a few spare. Alex Attwood is being touted as being in danger of losing his seat in West Belfast. While he could hardly be described as the most charismatic of politicians, he has a relatively strong base in the Upper Falls and if the SDLP can enforce a sensible vote management strategy, he should be able to stay above the lowest Sinn Fein candidate and ultimately use Sinn Fein transfers to stay above whoever the Unionist challenger is. He should only be in danger if the SDLP fails to balance its vote, if there is a unified Unionist challenge (which is unlikely) and if Sinn Fein’s vote falls towards the four quota level (possible if the stories about their manipulation of the old electoral register were true) leaving them with few transfers to spare. In South Belfast too the SDLP can be reasonably confident of holding onto their two seats if they can hold their nerve and balance their vote. A Sinn Fein gain, while likely, need not be at their expense as the SDLP vote is being boosted by the influx of largely well-paid, middle-class Catholics into the constituency. The fact that their two outgoing Assembly members will be running again is also a bonus.
DOWN
Eddie McGrady’s somewhat belated decision not to run cast something of a spanner into the works in the SDLP’s preparations in South Down, but they still have two outgoing Assembly members and a councillor on their four-strong ticket. In addition, ex-assembly member PJ Bradley, who should attract a strong personal vote, is based in the same electoral area as Mick Murphy and will therefore at least keep his personal vote in check.. It would certainly be a major upset if the SDLP did not retain their three seats. Liam Logan’s running in North Down, but is unlikely to be in contention for a seat. In Strangford, infighting may well cost the party an anticipated gain as Danny McCarthy (who missed out a seat last time by less than 200 votes, and was due to run again) now won’t run in protest at the imposition of Joe Boyle, a former Independent (he failed to get elected in the 2001 local elections) from the same area of the Ards Peninsula as McCarthy was selected. In the 1998 elections, the SDLP ran two candidates from the main Catholic centres of population in the constituency; Brian Hanvey from the Carryduff area on the outskirts of South Belfast and McCarthy from the Southern end of the Ards Peninsula. This made sense as not only were these communities geographically separated, they were demographically distinct as well; Carryduff is very much a middle-class dormitory town, while the Ards Peninsula is largely rural, with dependence on the fishing and tourism industries. In the event when Hanvey was eliminated, some 85% of his transfers went to McCarthy. Quite why this time they originally decided to choose two candidates from the Ards Peninsula indicates that all is not well within the party locally, and McCarthy’s decision not to run would do nothing to dispel that assumption. On that basis, with the DUP hovering around 3 quotas, the UUP having just above two quotas, and the Alliance on one, the SDLP will need the breaks to win a seat. In Lagan Valley, Patricia Lewsley should be able to see off the challenge from SF’s Paul Butler, although she may need transfers to pull clear of him
FERMANAGH AND TYRONE
Tommy Gallagher again looks like being the sole standard-bearer for the SDLP in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, while Denis Haughey will fulfil the same role tin Mid-Ulster. West Tyrone, however, looks much more exciting, as a decent ticket with a good geographical spread (outgoing Assembly members Eugene McMenamin in Strabane and Joe Byrne near Omagh) give them at least a fighting chance of preventing Sinn Fein from taking 3 of the 4 Nationalist seats. This, however, is strong Republican territory (Sinn Fein probably got up to 65%-70% of the vote in some wards in the local elections) and they will be up against it.
DERRY
Mark Durkan takes on John Hume’s mantle in Foyle but the preparation for the election has not been smooth. Councillor Annie Courtney was originally selected to contest the constituency in the SDLP interest, but was later effectively deselected at a second convention. She’s now running as an independent in the rural part of the constituency to the south-east of Derry city, and will take votes off her former colleagues. These votes are likely however to come back in transfers, and the SDLP do have a strong, well-balanced ticket. The chances of them losing a seat are remote. In East Londonderry, however, an SDLP seat will almost certainly be surrendered to Francie Brolly of Sinn Fein.
ARMAGH
The absence of Seamus Mallon and a weak SDLP ticket (only one councillor amongst three candidates) could see the SDLP only take one seat to Sinn Fein’s three in what was previously an SDLP stronghold. Only Mallon’s personal appeal (added by some tactical Unionist voting) saw Conor Murphy of SF denied at the last Westminster election. At the same time, SF routed the SDLP at the local elections, taking 15 of the 39 seats in the constituency, compared to 12 for the SDLP. As a point of comparison in 1993 the SDLP had 17 seats to Sinn Fein’s 6. The SDLP are definitely in danger of dropping a seat here. Finally, in Upper Bann, the SDLP will hold onto their one seat.
