Coronavirus: Better Call Sol - CORONAMANIA (18 Viewers)

[Unicron]

Friday's increased restrictions were due to hospital capacity, and nothing else. If we had more available ICU beds, or less pressure on them, the numbers of cases being seen day-on-day, by themselves, wouldn't have warranted the stricter measures.

This is the dilemma of praising Leo and Harris over their handling of what's happened. On the face of it they seem to be doing pretty well given the hand they were dealt, they seem to be making the right moves where other countries have faffed about. But the health service we've got was already stretched thanks in large part to their governance (and the governance of everyone else for about 40 years). I wonder if the health system was more robust would we have taken the steps we have or would we be in a more "don;t tank the economy" type of deal. Have they been forced into these big moves quickly because they know the consequences of not doing them would be catastrophic thanks to them?

Foreign travel will recommence very gradually. Countries will be graded in terms of how 'safe' they are. This could be awkward for Ireland as we will likely have to close the land border with the north. Will hopefully be temporary.

I'm never one of those put on the green jersey types but the gf and I were chatting about how lovely it'd be to go away when this is all over if we can still afford it, especially as we don't live together and we can't see each other at all at the moment and won't for weeks (which is necessary but still shit) and we decided that given the hit to the economy any trip we take will be in-country, then there's also the health concerns.

 

[rettucs]

I'm never one of those put on the green jersey types but the gf and I were chatting about how lovely it'd be to go away when this is all over if we can still afford it, especially as we don't live together and we can't see each other at all at the moment and won't for weeks (which is necessary but still shit) and we decided that given the hit to the economy any trip we take will be in-country, then there's also the health concerns.

My OH isn't Irish. We were due to go over to hers next week (we have a place there). Obviously thats cancelled now. However tough it is on us to see folks here, at least we know we should be free to move around freely again in a matter of weeks.

For people here, not from here, its a killer not knowing when they'll be able to go home to see family.

Thankfully her country (Latvia) are handling the situation pretty well and the number of cases are low. Their lockdown level remains lower than ours, and I expect they'll get over the hump around the same time we will.

As soon as its possible, we'll be back over there. We're hoping June.

 

[Lili Marlene]

btw I work for a big data company. We have data scientists who are independently modelling this stuff in their spare time, and what they are concluding, matches with the above, so I'm not entirely pulling all of that out of my hole.

There's this great book, New Dark Age, right? and see thing is...


No i am joking. Thank you for all your hard work at the posting face today.

 

[Squiggle]

Just sent this to a friend on facepuke, still gold!

Which bit? Airline stuff?

 

[Lili Marlene]

This is the dilemma of praising Leo and Harris over their handling of what's happened. On the face of it they seem to be doing pretty well given the hand they were dealt, they seem to be making the right moves where other countries have faffed about. But the health service we've got was already stretched thanks in large part to their governance (and the governance of everyone else for about 40 years). I wonder if the health system was more robust would we have taken the steps we have or would we be in a more "don;t tank the economy" type of deal. Have they been forced into these big moves quickly because they know the consequences of not doing them would be catastrophic thanks to them?

LOL Leo in 2016

More hospital beds can slow down staff, claims minister Leo Varadkar

More beds and additional resources can lead to a slower work rate among hospital staff, Health Minister Leo Varadkar has claimed.

www.independent.ie

making another one of his "not political" statements.

 

[rettucs]

There's this great book, New Dark Age, right? and see thing is...


No i am joking. Thank you for all your hard work at the posting face today.

I should clarify about the work the lads here are doing. They've been adjusting their models each day, as required. The govt/HSE stuck with the same model until yesterday. The new model they described yesterday matches, almost exactly, what we're seeing in here.

For context



Red is what the govt modelled 3 weeks back. Blue is the actual numbers. Pretty impressive imo.

 

[Lili Marlene]

I should clarify about the work the lads here are doing. They've been adjusting their models each day, as required. The govt/HSE stuck with the same model until yesterday. The new model they described yesterday matches, almost exactly, what we're seeing in here.

For context

View attachment 13749

Red is what the govt modelled 3 weeks back. Blue is the actual numbers. Pretty impressive imo.

I'm still a little with Hugh on this though. If test results are from cases tested 7-10 days ago then we could still be way up there, no? I take your point that it's about ICU capacity more than anything (thanks Leo) and as long we're surviving there we should be ok but i'm still unsure about it all.

 

[magicbastarder]

you know you're living in end times when the irish government starts issuing guidelines on safe masturbation:

Ireland: government advises practising safe sex and hygienic masturbation

Taking a break from physical and face-to-face interactions is worth considering, especially if you meet your sex partners online or make a living by having sex. Consider using video dates, sexting or chat rooms. Make sure to disinfect keyboards and touch screens that you share with others.”

Masturbation will not spread coronavirus, it adds. “Especially if you wash your hands (and any sex toys) with soap and water for at least 20 seconds before and after.

Coronavirus live news: Spain reports record single-day death toll; World Bank warns of 'unprecedented global shock'

 

[magicbastarder]

oh yeah, the guidelines also include a 'make sure you have the permission of whoever you're having sex with' clause. can't argue with that, i guess.

Homepage

The Sexual Health and Crisis Pregnancy Programme provides information to help people living in Ireland to experience positive sexual health and wellbeing. Click now for trusted information from the HSE.

www.sexualwellbeing.ie

 

[Unicron]

I'm still a little with Hugh on this though. If test results are from cases tested 7-10 days ago then we could still be way up there, no? I take your point that it's about ICU capacity more than anything (thanks Leo) and as long we're surviving there we should be ok but i'm still unsure about it all.

We have 50 beds per million, so about 250 (Italy has 125 per million), and according to that worldview site that I'm sure everyone has seen we've 86 people in serious or critical condition, is it fair to assume that they're all in ICU? In which case we're at 1/3 capacity, so not near the nightmare scenario yet but you could see it getting up there soon.

 

[Squiggle]

We have 50 beds per million, so about 250 (Italy has 125 per million), and according to that worldview site that I'm sure everyone has seen we've 86 people in serious or critical condition, is it fair to assume that they're all in ICU? In which case we're at 1/3 capacity, so not near the nightmare scenario yet but you could see it getting up there soon.

You're assuming that Covid-19 is the only condition that would put anyone in ICU. I don't think heart attacks etc are on hold until this is over. Irish ICUs are usually at (and beyond) capacity at this time of year, even without a pandemic.

 

[rettucs]

I'm still a little with Hugh on this though. If test results are from cases tested 7-10 days ago then we could still be way up there, no? I take your point that it's about ICU capacity more than anything (thanks Leo) and as long we're surviving there we should be ok but i'm still unsure about it all.

yeah, that's fair enough. There's the number of unknown cases, and there's finding out about those new cases. But the trend is there. I'm not sure what the waiting list is at now. I have heard ~15k. If that returns 6% positives, that's less than 1000 more cases. Thats ~50 additional serious cases (assuming a 5% rate).

The key point is that the contamination has already been done and that spreading is probably almost zero at this point.

And yes, the actual number of cases is probably way higher, but we'll never know about those. Many asymptomatic cases will already have passed, and many more will pass without us ever knowing about them.

 

[hugh]

Testing is less about identifying people who need treatment and more about identifying patterns of infection, clusters, contact tracing etc. in order to control the spread. Though maybe that doesn't matter so much if everyone is on lock-down anyway (as Scutter said). But if we had better testing/analysis then maybe we wouldn't need to be under such a severe lock-down and wouldn't need to halt the economy to such a large extent.

I think I've just pretty much summarised what other people have said without adding to it at all.

Moving on - what do people think about the #Colcannon bot thing on Twitter? The suggestion is that a PR company headed up by some dude called Colcannon are producing tons of fake Twitter accounts praising Varadkar/Harris's approach to the crisis. Is it real? Does it matter if so?

 

[Unicron]

You're assuming that Covid-19 is the only condition that would put anyone in ICU. I don't think heart attacks etc are on hold until this is over. Irish ICUs are usually at (and beyond) capacity at this time of year, even without a pandemic.

Indeed, I hadn't considered that. Good point.

 

[Unicron]

yeah, that's fair enough. There's the number of unknown cases, and there's finding out about those new cases. But the trend is there. I'm not sure what the waiting list is at now. I have heard ~15k. If that returns 6% positives, that's less than 1000 more cases. Thats ~50 additional serious cases (assuming a 5% rate).

The key point is that the contamination has already been done and that spreading is probably almost zero at this point.

And yes, the actual number of cases is probably way higher, but we'll never know about those. Many asymptomatic cases will already have passed, and many more will pass without us ever knowing about them.

Will antibody testing be part of the return to normality? That should provide more data re: people who had mild cases and just stayed home or the asymptomatic cases

 

[Unicron]

Moving on - what do people think about the #Colcannon bot thing on Twitter? The suggestion is that a PR company headed up by some dude called Colcannon are producing tons of fake Twitter accounts praising Varadkar/Harris's approach to the crisis. Is it real? Does it matter if so?

Given that they've got a 13% bump in the polls and we still haven't formed a government it might encourage them to tank talks and go for a second election, so yes, but only when we're on the other side of this.

 

[hugh]

Given that they've got a 13% bump in the polls and we still haven't formed a government it might encourage them to tank talks and go for a second election, so yes, but only when we're on the other side of this.

I don't think they can do that (tank talk). To pass legislation they need a functioning Seanad and to create that they need a bunch of Taoiseach's nominees who can't be nominated by an interim Taoiseach ...... I think anyway.

 

[dudley]

Spate of vandalism around here, most notably some fuckers smashed in the windows of the local Supervalu delivery vans. Of all things to do at this time in history.....Has depressed the hell out of me.
Seemingly the 75 bus had it's windows smashed in as well

 

[egg_]

Will antibody testing be part of the return to normality?

I hope so

Apparently the blood bank are gonna be running clinical trials of convalescent plasma transfusions for people who are seriously ill, so I guess an antibody test is going to be part of that

 

[jonah]

Have a pained tooth, and my dentist is understandably not taking appointments unless patient pain is excruciating, which it isn't, but he very soundly prescribed me an antiobiotic over email.

but this means I know cannot drink during this national worry...

Snap! Hoping to get my prescription filled tomorrow, my tooth is killing me.