Coronavirus: Better Call Sol - CORONAMANIA (4 Viewers)

[magicbastarder]

waiting on a test itself. my aunt got tested, but before the rush started; she was told that if there was a positive result, she'd hear within 48 hours, but if it was negative, there might be a longer wait. i think she got the negative result four days later.

 

[hydromancer]

It's just something I saw on the web today I didn't make it and I barely comprehend what 0 and 1 are supposed to mean if they can mean anything at all let alone the rest of those weird squiggles or colored lines whichever way they are supposed to be going. We are still in the upwards curve and unlikely to see the affects of our measures until another week or so. I suppose the graph is trying to show a predicted growth rate of new cases here roughly if we were to follow on at the same rate that we have been. Weather they have successfully done so or been accurate I don't know.

 

[Lili Marlene]

It's just something I saw on the web today I didn't make it and I barely comprehend what 0 and 1 are supposed to mean if they can mean anything at all let alone the rest of those weird squiggles or colored lines whichever way they are supposed to be going. We are still in the upwards curve and unlikely to see the affects of our measures until another week or so. I suppose the graph is trying to show a predicted growth rate of new cases here roughly if we were to follow on at the same rate that we have been. Weather they have successfully done so or been accurate I don't know.

It looks about right, i've been checking this Mirror article which had projections last week and we were 150+ cases or so ahead all weekend, we'll see what today brings though.

Graph of how Covid-19 cases will grow in Ireland if 30% daily increase continues

Our graph shows that figures will begin to grow rapidly if we do not flatten the curve

www.irishmirror.ie

Spoiler: basic numbers

Growth numbers if 30% continues
March

18TH - 292

19TH - 380

20TH - 494

21ST - 642

22ND - 834

23RD - 1084

24TH - 1409

25TH - 1831

26TH - 2380

27TH - 3094

28TH - 4022

29TH - 5228

30TH - 6796

31ST - 8834

April

1ST - 11484

2ND - 14929

3RD - 19407

4TH - 25229

5TH - 32797

6TH - 42636

7TH - 55426

8TH - 72054

9TH - 93670

10TH - 121771

11TH - 158302

 

[rettucs]

how many days behind are the test results though?

its hard to know, given the level of transparency they're going with.

the predicted curve was to be 30%, day-on-day, with Varadkar predicting ~180k cases by the end of March.

They prioritise healthcare workers (25% of all +ive cases) and those showing the most serious symptoms, which adds bias in both direction, hence probably offsets.

I don't see how we get from this 7% figure to suddenly having 1 million cases. Maybe that was worst case, I dunno.

There are approx 40k on the waiting list. It will hold at roughly that, and eventually drop, once cases are processed. If they manage to hit the 15k tests per day mark, which they're aiming for, they'll be able to test a lot more folk, obvs. Not sure how they'd prioritise that though, once those with symptoms have been looked after. There are probably also follow-up tests required before someone can be given the all-clear (which is why I presume there are so few who've already been given the all-clear).

The other thing is, those with the most serious symptoms are already known. Like, you don't lie there not being able to breathe, waiting 5-6 days for a test. Those people are seen to immediately. As they say, being diagnosed with the virus doesn't change your recovery efforts in any way. You still remain at home, you still self-isolate til better. Just, contact tracing kicks in and, as I mentioned before, this is proving much easier, as we're all only in contact with a couple of people.

I dunno. The above is based on what they're telling us. They obviously know a lot more. I'd tend to feel pretty positive about things, especially considering we're a few days away from being over the testing from before social distancing came into effect. Its safe to assume less contagion took place after that point.

 

[rettucs]

Its also worth adding that Italy, god love the poor fuckers, are at 63k cases, one-third of what Leo predicted we'd be at in 7 days from now.

Just doesn't add up for me.

 

[hermie]

View attachment 13711

Sorry what? A million cases by the middle of April?

 

[rettucs]

Sorry what? A million cases by the middle of April?

they said before that, worst case, 1.9 million would get it. That was without any measures or controls. Dunno where the million comes from, but it has to be a worst-case scenarion.

 

[hermie]

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[egg_]

It's just something I saw on the web today I didn't make it and I barely comprehend what 0 and 1 are supposed to mean if they can mean anything at all let alone the rest of those weird squiggles or colored lines whichever way they are supposed to be going ...

That graph is comparing the number of known COVID cases to what the number of cases would be if the increase in cases was exponential - look at the Y-axis on the left, each marking is 10 times larger than the previous one. It's not really saying anything useful, it's just comparing actual growth versus what the growth would be if it followed a particular mathematical rule. It looks like they match up, more or less, but because the scale gets 10 times larger as you move up the graph the error margin gets larger too, so the graph says more-or-less nothing at all

 

[egg_]

Dunno where the million comes from

It's not a prediction in the usual sense - it's just someone plugged in an exponential function to an excel spreadsheet and graphed it. "Prediction" is just what the exponential spits out, it's science-y jargon, not someone saying there'll be a million cases in a month

 

[egg_]

In summary DON'T FREAK OUT. That graph isn't saying what you're afraid it might be saying

 

[Lili Marlene]

State are taking control of private hospitals and running them as public hospitals!

VIVA CHAVEZ!

 

[GARYXKNIFEDX]

I truly despair.
Just back from the chemist collecting stuff for Eoin. But on the way back saw 5 I'd say 17 year olds,ridiculously close but they were
SHARING A FUCKING VAPE!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[pete]

I keep thinking of my poorly planned city in Cities:Skylines where there was a massive plague that overwhelmed my hospitals and I was only able to save the city by bulldozing every building with an infected inhabitant.

harsh but fair

 

[Lili Marlene]

harsh but fair

History will vindicate me.

 

[Cormcolash]

Enjoying watching all the Cuban doctors working hard saving the world, like they always do. Kings.

If anyone wants to lecture me about how bad Cuba is my IMs are open.

BUT MEN WITH BIG BEARDS AND EMBARGOS AND

 

[Cormcolash]

I keep thinking of my poorly planned city in Cities:Skylines where there was a massive plague that overwhelmed my hospitals and I was only able to save the city by bulldozing every building with an infected inhabitant.

Maybe I should have another blast at that shit

 

[ernesto]

Its also worth adding that Italy, god love the poor fuckers, are at 63k cases, one-third of what Leo predicted we'd be at in 7 days from now.

Just doesn't add up for me.

im nearly certain Vradkar's estimation was approx 15,000 cases by the end of March

 

[hugh]

Baffled as to why, under the new measures announced, only outdoor social gatherings of more than four people are banned. Does this make it okay for four of us to get together and drink cans on the canal? Surely not .....

 

[magicbastarder]

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colour me sceptical; "If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment "
lombardy has a population of 10m - less that one in one thousand would imply less than 10k people needing hospitalisation, yet they've seen 5k deaths already, and 30k+ cases.