Coronavirus: Better Call Sol - CORONAMANIA (1 Viewer)

[Cornu Ammonis]

Projection of up to 1.9 million people to contract Covid-19 in Ireland

33 cases of Covid-19 confirmed on the island of Ireland

A total of 33 cases of Covid-19 have now been confirmed on the island of Ireland.

www.rte.ie

taking one of the conservative death rates (South Korea at 0.6 %), such a situation could result in 11,400 deaths. Closer to 40,000 if it follows the upper death rate (2 %). Obviously lower if it is contained better and the number of cases are lower overall.

However, it is worth bearing in mind the long-term repercussions of a large outbreak that has a significant impact on older individuals. I was reading in the BMJ that 5% of patients will undergo septic shock/multi-organ failure, presumably these contribute towards the deaths but not all patients with a critical condition will die. That doesn’t mean they are out of the woods, as such heavy inflammatory responses in older individuals can be a trigger for other disorders (like Alzheimer’s disease) so you could have a sizeable population going from living at home fine without a carer pre-infection to needing to go into assisted living after infection. That is going to put a drain on services that are already under pressure.

 

[ann post]

taking one of the conservative death rates (South Korea at 0.6 %), such a situation could result in 11,400 deaths. Closer to 40,000 if it follows the upper death rate (2 %). Obviously lower if it is contained better and the number of cases are lower overall.

Bit of number crunching with uncle travelling matt this lastnight (who is going travelling tomorrow again)

In the two primary countries (italy, china) the death rate is actually almost 4% - The reports were initially expecting 2-3.4%. This is likely to increase a little as cases resolved. Once a country hits about 40 cases there is a high likelyhood of a death.

If anyone is on social media at least share or make a post about cancelling st. patricks day. I was thinking about it last night, it'd be like a superbreeding experiment. Take the people who can drink 12 pints while their immune system is dealing with something like this and not feel a thing, by 1am all these people will be the only people in the room, thinking they are grand and stumbling home wider family saying 'shir i never got anything' while they all effectively are infecting each other, saying 'I was out the other night and i was grand' while they infect loads of people without feeling the slightest tinge of a bug. I kinda think its the axis on which we become the next Italy or we contain.

 

[flashback]

Considering the US has transitioned from
[Corona virus is fake news made up by Dems] -> [STFU Fauci] -> [COVID 19 was a real thing which has been contained!]

it's looking like there's a touch of the Chernobyls about the US response. (We'd prefer if it wasn't true, therefore it's not.)

In the mean time you have a higher than normal mortality rate here, in a country which can't afford to be sick, and certainly can't afford to take off work.

 

[ann post]

In the mean time you have a higher than normal mortality rate here, in a country which can't afford to be sick, and certainly can't afford to take off work.

It really is exposing the razor edge on which healthcare is being run.

 

[flashback]

Just to add... the entire US economy is held up by the exploitation of illegal immigrants. The animals are killed and processed by illegal immigrants, vegetables are picked by illegal immigrants, food is prepped by illegal immigrants, and the dishes are washed by illegal immigrants.

Guess who lives packed into tenements and definitely hasn't got health insurance, and couldn't afford the co-pay even if they did?

 

[flashback]

It really is exposing the razor edge on which healthcare is being run.

Calling it "healthcare" is close to misleading. It's an industry, which has purchased the ruling class to ensure it can efficiently monetize sick people. The idea that it's involved in "health" is close to Orwellian double-speak.

 

[magicbastarder]

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that's fucking sobering reading.

 

[ernesto]

The faster it spreads means more sick people at the same time which also means the heath system gets overloaded and more people will die.
The only reasonable method of preventing this is to slow the transmission rate right down so it can be dealt with as fast and as best as possible.

Not cancelling St Patrick’s day events is this is opposite of this.

 

[Cornu Ammonis]

 

[Lili Marlene]

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Are we worrying the right amount??

 

[magicbastarder]

my hot take is that they should round up all medical students and infect them. that way, when the wave does hit, hopefully they'll be over it and have immunity and will be the frontline force fighting this.
i would like to say i was joking, but think there's logic to that, if you're happy to overlook the totalitarian overtones in the suggestion.

 

[pete]

my hot take is that they should round up all medical students and infect them. that way, when the wave does hit, hopefully they'll be over it and have immunity and will be the frontline force fighting this.
i would like to say i was joking, but think there's logic to that, if you're happy to overlook the totalitarian overtones in the suggestion.

I want to see our Redeker Plan.

 

[pete]

Epidemic Simulator

adewes.github.io

 

[7 - No tomorrow]

I really think we are gonna be fine

H1N1 killed a couple hundred thousand and no one even remembers it

 

[rettucs]

my hot take is that they should round up all medical students and infect them. that way, when the wave does hit, hopefully they'll be over it and have immunity and will be the frontline force fighting this.
i would like to say i was joking, but think there's logic to that, if you're happy to overlook the totalitarian overtones in the suggestion.

If there was even a chance that having had it, and recovering, means your immune system prevents it reoccurring, then I'd certainly sign up to get it now. Get the fucking thing over with.

 

[rettucs]

If anyone is on social media at least share or make a post about cancelling st. patricks day.

cancel what, exactly? the parade? Haven't been to the parade in a long time but do people go around spitting on each other these days? I would have thought pubs would have been a greater threat - people pissed out of their heads in a wedged room full of strangers, sweating, and god knows what else. So, unless we're gonna shut pubs too, it would be a bit of a half-arsed gesture to call off the parade. According to the WHO guidelines on whether or not to cancel an event, the type of factors to consider are things like 'crowd density', 'nature of contact between participants', 'age of participants', 'nature and duration of transport to/from the event', and 'duration of the event'. Given that the crowd will be mostly young (kids with their parents), given that it's outdoors, given that its not very high density (crowd is strung out over the parade route), and given that there is minimal physical interaction between attendees, I can appreciate why they took the decision not to cancel.

People are going mad on twitter over paddies not being cancelled. Its just not very clear exactly what people are asking for? There are some hysterical morons asking for the fucking airport to be closed, and to basically go live in caves.

According to the business post yesterday, 1.9 million are going to get it in due course. I think those of us who do get it need to be sure we know, as soon as possible, that we have it, and that we own the responsibility of not giving it to others, in particular those in higher risk categories. And, as unfair as it might seem, those in the higher risk categories will have to wrap themselves in cotton wool for a bit, til this thing dies down.

 

[magicbastarder]

"He also said that in a worst-case scenario 80,000 to 120,000 people could die in Ireland from the virus."

Government believes cancelling parades could fuel panic

Analysis: Medical staff are updating briefings for Ministers before a first meeting of a Cabinet committee on coronavirus

www.irishtimes.com

from what little i've read and (mis)understood, the only weapon we really have left at this point is slowing the rate of transmission. talking about letting the paddy's festival proceed because it'll mainly be young people attending ignores that entirely. children are typhoid marys and fintans, and if they get infected and only mildly ill, they still may well bring that infection to their grandparents.

the patrick's festival was closed due to foot and mouth, which was not a health risk to humans. we're looking at *potentally* the equivalent of the population of kilkenny county dying.

 

[ann post]

cancel what, exactly? the parade? Haven't been to the parade in a long time but do people go around spitting on each other these days? I would have thought pubs would have been a greater threat - people pissed out of their heads in a wedged room full of strangers, sweating, and god knows what else. So, unless we're gonna shut pubs too, it would be a bit of a half-arsed gesture to call off the parade. According to the WHO guidelines on whether or not to cancel an event, the type of factors to consider are things like 'crowd density', 'nature of contact between participants', 'age of participants', 'nature and duration of transport to/from the event', and 'duration of the event'. Given that the crowd will be mostly young (kids with their parents), given that it's outdoors, given that its not very high density (crowd is strung out over the parade route), and given that there is minimal physical interaction between attendees, I can appreciate why they took the decision not to cancel.

People are going mad on twitter over paddies not being cancelled. Its just not very clear exactly what people are asking for? There are some hysterical morons asking for the fucking airport to be closed, and to basically go live in caves.

According to the business post yesterday, 1.9 million are going to get it in due course. I think those of us who do get it need to be sure we know, as soon as possible, that we have it, and that we own the responsibility of not giving it to others, in particular those in higher risk categories. And, as unfair as it might seem, those in the higher risk categories will have to wrap themselves in cotton wool for a bit, til this thing dies down.

I typed this yesterday so I don't have to type it many times

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Doing fuck all and trying to keep tourism going at the stage we are now is why Italy had to close a whole massive district a few weeks later.

 

[rettucs]

"He also said that in a worst-case scenario 80,000 to 120,000 people could die in Ireland from the virus."

Government believes cancelling parades could fuel panic

Analysis: Medical staff are updating briefings for Ministers before a first meeting of a Cabinet committee on coronavirus

www.irishtimes.com

from what little i've read and (mis)understood, the only weapon we really have left at this point is slowing the rate of transmission. talking about letting the paddy's festival proceed because it'll mainly be young people attending ignores that entirely. children are typhoid marys and fintans, and if they get infected and only mildly ill, they still may well bring that infection to their grandparents.

the patrick's festival was closed due to foot and mouth, which was not a health risk to humans. we're looking at *potentally* the equivalent of the population of kilkenny county dying.

again, what are you proposing we cancel? the parade? or shut down the whole city?

the pubs were open, and wedged, during the foot-and-mouth, so that was a bit half-arsed too.

 

[GARYXKNIFEDX]

It would at least ease the hysteria