ElderLemon
New Member
Hi - just been looking through the runners and riders for the assembly elections - looks like being an interesting election, especially in certain key constituencies. This is a rundown of the SF prospects - I'll send similar posts on the UUP and SDLP later (there aren't full lists of DUP and APNI candidates as of yet). I'll add the caveat that assumptions made below are made largely on the basis of previous election performance and occasional bits of information that I come across. I'd appreciate any feedback, news or criticism from anyone who is involved or who has an interest.
You can check the following for news or info on the elections...
www.ark.ac.uk/elections
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/default.stm
www.u.tv
ANTRIM
SF’s candidate in East Antrim is Ollie McMullan, who is a councillor (only lately joining Sinn Fein – previously an independent) from the Glens of Antrim which is immediately to the north of the constituency. It says a lot about the pattern of intimidation of nationalists in the Larne area (where the bulk of the 15% Catholic minority in the constituency live) that SF weren’t able to field a viable candidate from within the constituency. McMullan’s chances are very slim. Their candidate in North Antrim, Phillip McGuigan (a young councillor in the Ballymoney area) must have a very good chance of taking a seat from the UUP as SF came within 800 votes of a seat last time although their campaign then was geared towards “putting in a good show” rather than winning a seat – the natural increase in the nationalist electorate over the last five years will help as well. In South Antrim, Martin Meehan is likely to be fighting it out with the Alliance leader David Ford. Meehan will probably start a thousand votes or more ahead of Ford, but Ford can be confident of better transfers. It’s a very hard race to call.
BELFAST
In North Belfast, Sinn Fein should be confident of an extra seat, but the choice of Gerry Kelly’s running mate, Kathy Stanton, seems a slightly odd choice given that she was defeated in the locals in 2001. I would have thought Eoin O’Broin would have been a more obvious choice. In Belfast East, Joe O’Donnell will be the leading nationalist candidate, but has no chance of being elected. In Belfast South, Alex Maskey must have a pretty good chance after his stint as Lord Mayor. If he does take a seat, it will probably be at the expense of the SDLP, but such is the rapid growth of the Catholic population in South Belfast (from approximately 15% 20 years ago to nearly 40% today), it’s not impossible that his victory could come at the expense of the NIWC or even the UUP (which would be a major culture shock). As you might expect, SF have a very strong team of five candidates in West Belfast and can expect to hold their four seats (despite a depleted electoral register).
DOWN
In Lagan Valley, Paul Butler increased the Sinn Fein vote from 1,100 in the 1997 Westminster election to 2,700 two years ago. If that rate of growth continues, he will be neck and neck with Patricia Lewsley of the SDLP on the first count, and therefore in the running for the one nationalist seat in the constituency. However, Lewsley can be confident of pulling ahead through transfers from Alliance (and to a lesser extent, pro-agreement Unionists). With Eddie McGrady of the SDLP declining to run again, Sinn Fein have an outside chance of two seats in South Down; provided they run two candidates – only outgoing Assembly member Mick Murphy is listed on the Sinn Fein website. In Strangford, Maria George’s candidacy will presumably be more geared towards maximising the Sinn Fein vote in the few Catholic areas in the constituency, rather than any concerted bid for a seat. They have no candidate in North Down.
FERMANAGH AND TYRONE
In Fermanagh and South Tyrone, it’s likely to be as you were. In Mid Ulster Sinn Fein should be confident of retaining their three seats, although they only have two candidates listed on their website as of yet. In West Tyrone, however, there is likely to be an almighty scrap between Sinn Fein and the SDLP for the fourth Nationalist seat. Sinn Fein’s three candidates are likely to pull in just under 3 quotas, while (depending on the number of Nationalist-leaning independents; there were 3 last time who took over 2,000 votes between them) the SDLP will probably start at somewhere between one and a half and two quotas, but will benefit from transfers from independents and small party candidates. Vote management will be crucial in determining the outcome, and Sinn Fein’s better discipline in this respect might just prove crucial.
DERRY
In Derry, they are running three candidates but are unlikely to challenge the SDLP’s supremacy. In Londonderry East, however, Francie Brolly is almost certain to take a seat from the SDLP after SF’s much improved showing in the Westminster election in 2001.
ARMAGH
Sinn Fein are growing strongly in Armagh, and this could be reflected in the all three candidates on Sinn Fein’s strong, well-balanced ticket in Newry & Armagh taking seats leaving the SDLP (whose ticket, in the absence of Seamus Mallon, seems pretty weak) with only one Assembly member in a constituency where they still hold the Westminster seat. In Upper Bann, Sinn Fein are unlikely to get a second seat, but will almost certainly get more votes than the SDLP.
You can check the following for news or info on the elections...
www.ark.ac.uk/elections
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/default.stm
www.u.tv
ANTRIM
SF’s candidate in East Antrim is Ollie McMullan, who is a councillor (only lately joining Sinn Fein – previously an independent) from the Glens of Antrim which is immediately to the north of the constituency. It says a lot about the pattern of intimidation of nationalists in the Larne area (where the bulk of the 15% Catholic minority in the constituency live) that SF weren’t able to field a viable candidate from within the constituency. McMullan’s chances are very slim. Their candidate in North Antrim, Phillip McGuigan (a young councillor in the Ballymoney area) must have a very good chance of taking a seat from the UUP as SF came within 800 votes of a seat last time although their campaign then was geared towards “putting in a good show” rather than winning a seat – the natural increase in the nationalist electorate over the last five years will help as well. In South Antrim, Martin Meehan is likely to be fighting it out with the Alliance leader David Ford. Meehan will probably start a thousand votes or more ahead of Ford, but Ford can be confident of better transfers. It’s a very hard race to call.
BELFAST
In North Belfast, Sinn Fein should be confident of an extra seat, but the choice of Gerry Kelly’s running mate, Kathy Stanton, seems a slightly odd choice given that she was defeated in the locals in 2001. I would have thought Eoin O’Broin would have been a more obvious choice. In Belfast East, Joe O’Donnell will be the leading nationalist candidate, but has no chance of being elected. In Belfast South, Alex Maskey must have a pretty good chance after his stint as Lord Mayor. If he does take a seat, it will probably be at the expense of the SDLP, but such is the rapid growth of the Catholic population in South Belfast (from approximately 15% 20 years ago to nearly 40% today), it’s not impossible that his victory could come at the expense of the NIWC or even the UUP (which would be a major culture shock). As you might expect, SF have a very strong team of five candidates in West Belfast and can expect to hold their four seats (despite a depleted electoral register).
DOWN
In Lagan Valley, Paul Butler increased the Sinn Fein vote from 1,100 in the 1997 Westminster election to 2,700 two years ago. If that rate of growth continues, he will be neck and neck with Patricia Lewsley of the SDLP on the first count, and therefore in the running for the one nationalist seat in the constituency. However, Lewsley can be confident of pulling ahead through transfers from Alliance (and to a lesser extent, pro-agreement Unionists). With Eddie McGrady of the SDLP declining to run again, Sinn Fein have an outside chance of two seats in South Down; provided they run two candidates – only outgoing Assembly member Mick Murphy is listed on the Sinn Fein website. In Strangford, Maria George’s candidacy will presumably be more geared towards maximising the Sinn Fein vote in the few Catholic areas in the constituency, rather than any concerted bid for a seat. They have no candidate in North Down.
FERMANAGH AND TYRONE
In Fermanagh and South Tyrone, it’s likely to be as you were. In Mid Ulster Sinn Fein should be confident of retaining their three seats, although they only have two candidates listed on their website as of yet. In West Tyrone, however, there is likely to be an almighty scrap between Sinn Fein and the SDLP for the fourth Nationalist seat. Sinn Fein’s three candidates are likely to pull in just under 3 quotas, while (depending on the number of Nationalist-leaning independents; there were 3 last time who took over 2,000 votes between them) the SDLP will probably start at somewhere between one and a half and two quotas, but will benefit from transfers from independents and small party candidates. Vote management will be crucial in determining the outcome, and Sinn Fein’s better discipline in this respect might just prove crucial.
DERRY
In Derry, they are running three candidates but are unlikely to challenge the SDLP’s supremacy. In Londonderry East, however, Francie Brolly is almost certain to take a seat from the SDLP after SF’s much improved showing in the Westminster election in 2001.
ARMAGH
Sinn Fein are growing strongly in Armagh, and this could be reflected in the all three candidates on Sinn Fein’s strong, well-balanced ticket in Newry & Armagh taking seats leaving the SDLP (whose ticket, in the absence of Seamus Mallon, seems pretty weak) with only one Assembly member in a constituency where they still hold the Westminster seat. In Upper Bann, Sinn Fein are unlikely to get a second seat, but will almost certainly get more votes than the SDLP.
