BREXIT (1 Viewer)

[magicbastarder]

here's a reductio ad absurdum example. party A and party B, support for whom is split precisely across the electorate.
in an election with a 70% turnout, the result could swing from a 50:20 vote for party A vs party B, to a 20:50 vote for party A vs party B, without a single eligible voter changing allegiance.

 

[ann post]

I don't know how to explain this to you without explaining what an election is to be honest.
I get the mathematical idea that you are drilling on there but it doesn't actually come into play in the results.

 

[seanc]

From being there* a lot, i'd kinda say it's a bit more becoming like here - if the local TD is effective they are winning favour, rather than if the local TD is Unionist or Irish being the only factor which is what NI is growing out of, by possibly 3%

I know a few of you know more about that part of the world than I do.
I guess if it's transcending sectarian divides, then that's good?? I don't know, I never thought I'd see that, but if you say so I'll believe you.

 

[magicbastarder]

I don't know how to explain this to you without explaining what an election is to be honest.
I get the mathematical idea that you are drilling on there but it doesn't actually come into play in the results.

don't come out with an arch 'it's maths, not an opinion', so, if actual maths doesn't support your conclusion.

 

[ann post]

don't come out with an arch 'it's maths, not an opinion', so.

Are you sure you are remaining in a logical state here I would come out that again, because it is maths, and not my opinion. All numbers that we are discussing that exist that we can discuss in real sense are literally 100'000s peoples opinions turned into a number. All we can do is observe change through maths.

As they'd say in belfast, wind your neck in - I'm not sure what you are going for with the fringey stuff tbh

 

[magicbastarder]

i think success has gone to the poor man's head.

 

[seanc]

He knows a good toolmaker.
He also knows a guy who's out of work, but that guy's dad was a GP.

 

[Cornu Ammonis]

There were 20,000 less votes in this GE compared to the last one which would be “worth” about 2.6% of the vote in the current election. So trying to make an inference on a 3% change when the sample size changes that much is a stretch. Especially when it comes to a measure like voting behaviour. It’s descriptive stats, it’s not Fermat’s last theorem.

 

[hydromancer]

‘Like a son to me’: George Cottrell, the high-rolling convicted fraudster at Nigel Farage’s side

Extravagant lifestyle and past controversies of Montenegro-based volunteer raise awkward questions for Reform leader

www.theguardian.com

 

[ann post]

I know what you are getting at
but like

Say it's 15% humidity today

and

it was 20% humidity** last week

Would you have two pages of a thread if I said it was less* humid today because i hadn't accounted for the 5% of moisture because it was still in the sea.

In the instance of comparing one election to a previous one we can only observed the change we've measured, we do not function in society based on the concept that there are sectrely 5000 more unionists off rathlin island that haven't evaporated to the point that they have become damp air in the lagan ward.

If you have a legit method of accounting that considers population change, deaths, illness, transport, accesibility, new voters and 1000 other factors that move the turnout needle then sure

But all i did was add up %'s* and compare them to previous %'s and everything that comes after that is conjecture, non?

*fewer

*badly

**we are not accounting for air temparture or pressure...

 

[ann post]

Does anyone know are the two eastwoods from the two different parties of the same eastwood dynasty of boxing songs fame?

 

[magicbastarder]

But all i did was add up %'s* and compare them to previous %'s and everything that comes after that is conjecture, non?

you stated the percentage change in voting across nationalist/unionist lines was accounted for by people changing allegiances, that this was just maths.
you *cannot* make this conclusion, it's that simple. the sheer number of variables (and anonymity of the process) make drawing this conclusion a logical absurdity.

i've three cans in me now, so your earlier claim that i must somehow be addled may actually be true now.

 

[magicbastarder]

FWIW i am not stating it's a logical absurdity that 3% of the voters changed alliegance; i am stating that it's absurd to make that claim based simply on the bare stats available.

 

[ann post]

So are you trying tell me that it's just maths, not opinion by any chance?

 

[nuke terrorist]

So are you trying tell me that it's just maths, not opinion by any chance?

Seriously - are you taking the piss? This is getting tiresome.

 

[Cornu Ammonis]

I think it’s cute.

 

[Cornu Ammonis]

But all i did was add up %'s* and compare them to previous %'s and everything that comes after that is conjecture, non?

I think it was the stubborn “here’s my opinion but it’s maths” bit that has broken @magicbastarder and sent him down a drinking wormhole. Honestly, there’s a lot of wasted anger here when yizzers are all making jokes about octopuses and insisting that they really have tentacles. They’re not squid FFS!

 

[magicbastarder]

FWIW I wasn't angry! Though obviously I came across like that if that's the impression other people got.

 

[magicbastarder]

Anyway, have there been constituency changes in the UK which might explain this? Change in voter sentiment? Tactical voting?

The number of candidates with massive majorities has dropped very noticeably.

 

[Cornu Ammonis]

FWIW I wasn't angry! Though obviously I came across like that if that's the impression other people got.

You were furious, you just don’t remember coming around to my house screaming about sampling error and clustering biases. We had to get the guards involved. It was carnage.