To be honest I think don't think Contador will do it, unless he takes a blood bag or microdoses some EPO today. I'd say they are testing the living daylights out of him at the moment. I don't think he'll even podium.
If you read through the last few articles here: http://www.sportsscientists.com/
They reckon the doping has been really curtailed this year. Not eliminated mind, but very restricted.
I'm thinking Evans, Contador and one of the Schlecks in that order for podium spots. I think Contador will kick on one of the alp stages (I'm thinking Galibier rather than Alpe d'Huez seeing as thats such a short stage).
I think Roche will take a stage, or will at least go in a break that will stay out til the end.
And the two biggest pissers on this tour for me have been, 1) the crashes depriving the race of so many big contenders (particularly Horner who I thought would podium), and 2) fucking HTC stopping Velits and Martin from contesting GC. Particularly Velits who I think could win the tour outright some day. HTC are a pack of cunts. The next time they're giving out about being the only team controlling breaks on flat stages they should be told to go fuck themselves. They're the only team in the race riding solely for sprints, and thats just boring, so fuck them, pack of cunts.