I suspect the main glitch in predicting the weather a week away is that it's a fool's errand usually.
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Is that what they call the 'butterfly effect'?The weather is definitely something that is always living in survivorship bias.
if the weather forecast is wrong in a big way it's a national bitching event, and has been for centuries. If the weather forecast is correct every day the bitching switches focus to the actual weather rather than heaping as much praise as there was bitching on the forecasters.
Someone i know kept talking to me about too many yellow weather warnings recenlty. I kinda got bored of it and asked them what a yellow weather warning meant. They had never looked it up, they'd just been bitching about it for two months anyways.
Anywhoo they look at massive weather systems globally and model them on computers within ranges and forecast the most probable outcome, which literally changes from second to second to answer the question.
You Canute be serious.$500K Dune Built to Protect Coastal Homes Lasts Just 3 Days
The handmade barrier, which used 14,000 tons of sand, quickly crumbled.www.thedailybeast.com
But you pay ALOT for that insurance. Anywhere near water dramatically raises the cost. My brother's house is like 8 blocks from a creek, it has never flooded anywhere near his house but his insurance is significantly higher than say my mother's whose house is no where near water.america has a fucked up law where the government insure them for stuff like that, and can't refuse insurance. so you can repeatedly rebuild your house on the coast and are paid when the sea washes it away.
Interesting, although that's only accounting for fuel usage and presumably doesn't include for the substantial carbon emitted in building the car itself (if you were factoring this into your calculation I guess you would divide the typical amount of carbon involved in car construction by the total number of journeys it is expected to be used for).Just been working out the greenhouse gas emissions for walking versus driving, and it's surprising
(sorry about the mixed units)
A 155lb human burns 177 calories when walking at 2.5mph, so that's 71 calories per mile
There are 340 calories in 100g of wholemeal wheat flour, so walking one mile takes around 21g of wheat
Wheat flour creates carbon emissions of 0.80 kg CO₂e/kg, so walking one mile creates carbon emissions of 170 g CO₂e
Driving a vehicle powered by petrol produces tailpipe emissions of around 400g per mile
So driving a petrol car emits twice the carbon of a wheat powered human walking
...
Interestingly, a beef powered human is different
100g of beef gives you 217 calories, so you need 33g of beef for your walk
Irish beef creates around 20kg of carbon per kilo of meat so a 1 mile walk will emit ~730g of carbon, a little under twice what you'd have emitted if you drove
(sorry about the mixed units)
my car creates about 120g/km of CO2 - but the actual footprint of petrol is very approximately double the tailpipe emissions. so egg's 400g per mile would be about right.Interesting, although that's only accounting for fuel usage and presumably doesn't include for the substantial carbon emitted in building the car itself (if you were factoring this into your calculation I guess you would divide the typical amount of carbon involved in car construction by the total number of journeys it is expected to be used for).
There's also the question of whether that figure for tailpipe emissions is literally just the greenhouse gas emissions coming of your tailpipe, or if it also includes GHGs produced in the extraction/refinement of the petrol/diesel and transport to its location of use, etc..
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