The Russian invasion of Ukraine (3 Viewers)

Fascinating and depressing discussion of the war with Richard Sakwa on this week's bungacast

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Also a link to his January article in the Spectator

 
Bollox- I know you think this has all gone to plan for putin - but I don’t think the evidence bears that out
What evidence? Constant gains across eastern Ukraine and a few distraction missions in Kiev and that island to scatter the enemy so he can bed in? It's not even complex war games; Carlow gaa have moves more complex than this.
 
What evidence? Constant gains across eastern Ukraine and a few distraction missions in Kiev and that island to scatter the enemy so he can bed in? It's not even complex war games; Carlow gaa have moves more complex than this.

I think this is basically true. also the longer this has gone on, the less reliable the institute for the study of war have become. this recent line in particular was sort of ridiculous: “Ukrainian forces [...] probably aim to force the Russian offensive to culminate prematurely” — they can’t bear to just say what’s happening, which is that the ukrainian army is getting badly beaten. this is without even getting into the weird Kagan/neocon background of the ISW.

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recently I’ve been looking at the account of this guy, who actually appears to be just some dude on the internet, and claims no special status or expertise, but whose updates are actually pretty good:

 
What evidence? Constant gains across eastern Ukraine and a few distraction missions in Kiev and that island to scatter the enemy so he can bed in? It's not even complex war games; Carlow gaa have moves more complex than this.
I don’t disagree things are going better for them of late- and they are probably going to hold most of what they have now in almost any circumstance.

But…why this is (in my view) at least plan c:

- failure of their initial stated war aims -which was essentially regime change, and a swift campaign. and constant revision downwards of these. I don’t think you could class their advance to Kiev as a distraction- if it was it was a massively costly one- even by the standards of Russia historically.
- the fact that there’s been a number of changes in command. Plus the fact that they’ve lost senior commanders who’ve had to be at the front line kicking arse instead of back in hq

- in feb they were looking at regime change, in may talking about taking the whole south coast, and a big encirclement in the east. Now they are down to grinding out town by town a gradual takeover of one of the two original disputed regions. They’ve also been pushed back from Kharkiv.
- that island is hardly insignificant in terms of the role grain is going to play as this drags out

Again - I’m not disputing that things are going better - there’s a sense that they are now fighting on their own terms, that the west will probably just support Ukraine to the extent they can keep fighting but not win, and that things run onwards Russia will increasing get their shit together and at minimum well and truely dig in where they occupy. But I’d strongly dispute the idea that in Feb the lads expected and wanted to be in this position 4 months later.

And as to Carlows grasp of tactics - I wont dispute that, but the Russians have hardly looked like Donegal circa 2012 either
 
i find it hard to believe that this was putin's plan all along. getting bogged down in a protracted war against an enemy, costly in terms of war materiel, people, and international standing; a war which they'll eventually win through sheer numerical superiority; seems like a perverse plan to have launched into.
 
I think this is basically true. also the longer this has gone on, the less reliable the institute for the study of war have become. this recent line in particular was sort of ridiculous: “Ukrainian forces [...] probably aim to force the Russian offensive to culminate prematurely” — they can’t bear to just say what’s happening, which is that the ukrainian army is getting badly beaten. this is without even getting into the weird Kagan/neocon background of the ISW.

Agreed 100%. Initially a lot of their ‘things to watch’ were bang on the money, but there’s a stronger bias emerging of late. It’s still a reasonable digest of what’s happening on the ground, but less reliable I think in terms of how things are interpreted.
 
i find it hard to believe that this was putin's plan all along. getting bogged down in a protracted war against an enemy, costly in terms of war materiel, people, and international standing; a war which they'll eventually win through sheer numerical superiority; seems like a perverse plan to have launched into.

that’s true. though I do wonder where putin is planning to stop. if he leaves a rump ukraine in the west that is dominated by oligarchs, far-right militias, and angry war refugees, that might suit him fine. he might even manage to tempt hungary or romania to claim other bits of ukraine that they have some historical claim to, which instantly undermines nato unity and cohesion. for sure, no matter what happens, it’s a catastrophe for most ordinary ukrainians.
 
. for sure, no matter what happens, it’s a catastrophe for most ordinary ukrainians.

I think that’s one thing we all can agree on - and unfortunately I think strategically at least some in the us/nato will see keeping it going to their advantage also.

In terms of what happens- I’d say Russia will continue to grind out gains in donbas, until at least they have taken Donetsk. The Ukrainians will probably try to focus more on the south. Russia will integrate what they’ve taken into the federation, and some sort of stasis will emerge in the next 6 months.

A lot in the longer term will depend on
A) how costly occupation is for the Russians
B) what china and turkey do
C) how the grain situation turns out in terms of the ability of the Ukrainians to export, or the rest of the world to source alternatives
D) regime changes either in Russia or Ukraine
 
Is it not standard procedure for Russia to enter confidently into war, fuck up badly, and then win a long war of attrition? Like, the most predictable outcome is currently what is happening.

In regards the grain stuff, ive read some very conflicting reports, like how the (I'm making up these exact figures, but speaking generally) "80% of worlds exported grain comes from Ukraine" kind of stats are purposely misleading because in most countries about 90% of their grain is not imported but grown at home. It's only a few sub-saharan African countries who are dependent on Ukraine grain and, frankly, if we cared about them at all then the world would look very, very different.
 

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