The Russian invasion of Ukraine (1 Viewer)
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I don't know if that's true or not but it rings true. People (me idly speculating without any expertise) at the start of this is that it would end with someone taking him out, the longer it drags out the more likely someone high up is going to think "fuckit it's time." Putin didn't get where he is by being naive.
I assume that the CIA has some approved successor lined up, or at least in their minds, to help push into power if it comes to it.
I've read some seems-plausible-to-me stuff that suggests a coup against Putin would probably mean that a more hardline pro-war ultra-nationalist will come to power rather than a dovish western puppet
The 4d chess I play means I'm thinking 2 coups ahead.
"Time for some game theory."
my moneys on the wagner bucks
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one of the main public figures inside ukraine throughout the whole war has been Oleksii Arestovych. Zelenskyy’s PR guy.
you might have heard about how he was fired last week, after he said that the Dnipro missile strike was not deliberate, but rather caused by a ukrainian missile hitting a russian one and both of them falling on this block of flats.
what seems to have had less notice in the western media is that a couple of days before all that, he did a set-piece sit-down interview with one of the biggest ukrainian youtubers, Ramina Eshakzai (1.2 million followers), where he veered radically off-script, condemned his own government, attacked their policies towards russian-speaking ukrainians, criticized the war (especially the huge casualty count on the ukrainian side), and lots more.
this is a guy who doesn’t do something like this by mistake — he’s a strategic communications advisor. I can only presume that he’s carefully staging his “I for one welcome our new insect overlords” moment here. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s anticipating fairly radical new developments in ukraine in the next few weeks, and he’s trying to get ahead of them. I have no idea. but this guy is no dummy.
the full original interview is on youtube here, but it’s tricky, so far, to find excerpts that have been translated. here’s one slice, on the twitter of some hyper-russia guy, where arestovych is talking about how russian-speaking ukrainians are treated and perceived by the government:
you might have heard about how he was fired last week, after he said that the Dnipro missile strike was not deliberate, but rather caused by a ukrainian missile hitting a russian one and both of them falling on this block of flats.
what seems to have had less notice in the western media is that a couple of days before all that, he did a set-piece sit-down interview with one of the biggest ukrainian youtubers, Ramina Eshakzai (1.2 million followers), where he veered radically off-script, condemned his own government, attacked their policies towards russian-speaking ukrainians, criticized the war (especially the huge casualty count on the ukrainian side), and lots more.
this is a guy who doesn’t do something like this by mistake — he’s a strategic communications advisor. I can only presume that he’s carefully staging his “I for one welcome our new insect overlords” moment here. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s anticipating fairly radical new developments in ukraine in the next few weeks, and he’s trying to get ahead of them. I have no idea. but this guy is no dummy.
the full original interview is on youtube here, but it’s tricky, so far, to find excerpts that have been translated. here’s one slice, on the twitter of some hyper-russia guy, where arestovych is talking about how russian-speaking ukrainians are treated and perceived by the government:
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one of the main public figures inside ukraine throughout the whole war has been Oleksii Arestovych. Zelenskyy’s PR guy.
you might have heard about how he was fired last week, after he said that the Dnipro missile strike was not deliberate, but rather caused by a ukrainian missile hitting a russian one and both of them falling on this block of flats.
what seems to have had less notice in the western media is that a couple of days before all that, he did a set-piece sit-down interview with one of the biggest ukrainian youtubers, Ramina Eshakzai (1.2 million followers), where he veered radically off-script, condemned his own government, attacked their policies towards russian-speaking ukrainians, criticized the war (especially the huge casualty count on the ukrainian side), and lots more.
this is a guy who doesn’t do something like this by mistake — he’s a strategic communications advisor. I can only presume that he’s carefully staging his “I for one welcome our new insect overlords” moment here. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s anticipating fairly radical new developments in ukraine in the next few weeks, and he’s trying to get ahead of them. I have no idea. but this guy is no dummy.
the full original interview is on youtube here, but it’s tricky, so far, to find excerpts that have been translated. here’s one slice, on the twitter of some hyper-russia guy, where arestovych is talking about how russian-speaking ukrainians are treated and perceived by the government:
I read about this guy. He was covered plenty.
This is the kind of shit Russia loves to put in the domain
Maybe it wasn't a missile strike?
Maybe the Ukranians aren't good people and therefore not worth supporting?
Maybe Ukraine are losing the war really and should give up?
We are watching the real story every day.
Russia is a mafia state that targets and destroys civilian buildings and infrastructure, killing children sleeping in their beds.
We are certainly watching a more realistic accurate version of events. But the BBC, wouldn't be trusting them either. I'm very curious as to why BBC has taken an editorial decision to call the American tank an "Abrahams tank", when every person they speak to on their radio shows correctly calls it an "Abrams tank". It couldn't be a mistake.
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Is there anyone really confused over what's going on over there? Like is this some deeply complex conflict that is super difficult to parse through?
Even the diehard Russia lovers have to admit the country is engaged in a brutal and repugnant war against a peaceful neighbour and its civilian population
They spent kajillions on their army which turns out to be a Potemkin village [irony klaxon] of bribery and corruption
But the whole country is based on so many lies, the higher ups actually believed it all and figured they were gonna go in there and win in a fucking weekend. Shit worked in 2014, why not now?
So they go in with their standard wholesale slaughter and rape and pillaging and military incompetency, and they get found out.
Everything else is details
Maybe there's some needle to be threaded where you've loved this mob your whole life and you wanna say there's Nazis in Ukraine, and they're mean to Russian speakers and so on, but it's all a bunch of smoke to compared to what these utter cunts are doing to the men, women and children of a peaceful country.
We all know what's going on.
Even the diehard Russia lovers have to admit the country is engaged in a brutal and repugnant war against a peaceful neighbour and its civilian population
They spent kajillions on their army which turns out to be a Potemkin village [irony klaxon] of bribery and corruption
But the whole country is based on so many lies, the higher ups actually believed it all and figured they were gonna go in there and win in a fucking weekend. Shit worked in 2014, why not now?
So they go in with their standard wholesale slaughter and rape and pillaging and military incompetency, and they get found out.
Everything else is details
Maybe there's some needle to be threaded where you've loved this mob your whole life and you wanna say there's Nazis in Ukraine, and they're mean to Russian speakers and so on, but it's all a bunch of smoke to compared to what these utter cunts are doing to the men, women and children of a peaceful country.
We all know what's going on.
Congratulations on being the first person I’ve ever know apart from myself to use the phrase ‘Potemkin village’
"I want bits of Ukraine, I don't like the lad they elected running there either. Sort it."
It's not working out all that great boss.
"Oh right. Nuke the planet so. It's the only logical step available to us."
It's always the same bullshit from these guys. They have no ideas, nothing to offer these countries flanking, nothing to offer their own society, nothing but klepto thugs who report back to El Jefe lest they get shifted for a different klepto tough guy. Putin's response to everything is "ratchet it up a notch or two." At this point the lad is possibly a cancer ridden nihilistic prick, completely isolated from society, who genuinely might think his glorious Russian empire's conception might rise from the ashes of an nuclear war.
Any Russians with the ability to do anything constructive have left the country or been sidelined. The emptiness and cynicism is just as vile as Trump and his enablers. I can understand how Putin and Trump might get into that position, but the creeping lackies that scurry about enabling everything, looking for a cut of the proceeds, are somehow worse.
100%
Whatever you or I think democracy or freedom or agency is, the Russians just don't have that. It's shocking, because they are intelligent caring and considerate people, but it's hard to break through the things that are fundamental to them.
Maybe I'm wrong, I don't know.
Whatever you or I think democracy or freedom or agency is, the Russians just don't have that. It's shocking, because they are intelligent caring and considerate people, but it's hard to break through the things that are fundamental to them.
Maybe I'm wrong, I don't know.
Right. I work with Russians, my old boss was Russian, there's a very large contingent of Russians in the Institute, and I know by definition the people I'm interacting with are the Russians who have left Russian society. There is a general hardness and bloody mindedness that's "typically Russian" I guess, but I'm not talking about Russians in general, I'm talking about Putin's enforcers, and this sad Russian Empire shite he trots out. It's as sad as Farage or UKIP's empire yearnings.
I know I'm ranting. But it's worse than an aul lad in the pub talking about the time he won the regional under 16 cross country race, because at least that aul lad did something 50 years ago. These guys did nothing other than get born into an former empire. They've got nothing more than a nostalgia for a life they didn't even have.
someone here posted Vlad Vexler's video channel from youtube. he does an excellent job explaining Russian mindsets to non Russian speakers.
a lot of Russians seem very self defeatist / very low expectations / 'this is all we have ever known' etc. and the Empire stuff is also very alien.
25-10-23 video on Russian public attitude to war, Putin, Ukraine, national identity... - probably posted here before
Q&A with Vexler this evening 23-1-2023
Q&A with Vexler this evening 23-1-2023
That was me, I've been following him for a while. He's quite sick sadly, so his posts are a bit variable in frequency.
Vlad emphasized the disenfranchisement of a large section of the population, "Putin deals with The Politics, we deal with our lives.". But I think there's also Make Russia Great Again happening alongside that, which Putin is trying to feed into. Along with "Gay people are terrible", which is a standard goto.
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Really top notch stuff here.
Thanks
Will watch the other one when I'm less tired.
Yevgeny Prigozhin: the hotdog seller who rose to the top of Putin’s war machine
After nearly a decade in prison, the Wagner group founder’s ascent was extraordinary. But where does the ceiling of his ambition lie?
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