dunno if you've seen this:Very hard to know where to stand on all this, obviously want Ukraine free and Putin out but what's the actual path to that that doesn't end in nukes?
dunno if you've seen this:
Well oh great!Seeing various sources saying that WWIII has already started. We just haven't accepted it yet. That is, Putin isn't fighting a war against Ukraine, he's started a war against The West. NATO is already full engaged, albeit currently by proxy.
Interesting again, so his as advice is to basically do none of the things we are currently doing.
Well oh great!
Here's how I'm seeing it right now, Lili's attempted realpolitik lay of the land, do correct me where you think I'm way off:
What Ukraine wants: most obvious and we all want it, maybe minus the bloody revenge bit but if that did happen we will be quite forgiving of it.
What Russia wants: not fully clear. IMHO Putin wanted half of Ukraine and would have stopped there, others think he wanted a Russian Reich (tm) and would have been invading Poland before we knew it. Either way the fact that they can't even defeat Ukraine without massive cost pretty much definitively rules that out. There's talk of Russia turning into a "wartime economy," one hopes this would prove too much for those in charge, and some form of behind the scenes political coup happens and Putin gets ousted.
What NATO wants: They pushed their luck too far east for too long and probably want this to end ASAP, although there's all that speculation that they stopped those talks back in April/ and also the US maybe blew up the pipeline?? I don't think any of the governments involved want a nuclear war, they backed down the other day by not approving Ukraine's NATO fast track application. This to me is the most shadowy part of the war. What exactly do they want to do with Putin if the war continues in Ukraine's favour? How much short of an unconditional surrender will NATO accept?
Commentators/publications with some sway:
The more prestigious you are, whether you're a liberal like Anne Applebaum/someone at the NYtimes/Guardian, or a more right wing Telegraph/Spectator columnist, the more likely you want nuclear war. You've decided that it's worth allowing some nukes in east Europe go off if it means the end of Putin.
On the right the split is with the MAGA people, the ones less concerned with prestige, they're anti war because of the quirk of Trump being anti war. If this changes we'll see it through Tucker Carlson. It's feels really weird after all those years of war in Iraq/on Terror, but it seems to be where they are.
Oh, and leftist Jacobin/Current Affairs/Red Pepper and the like: don't be ridiculous, these fanzines have no sway on the corridors of power.
Well FFS!I'm not sure how every path doesn't lose here.
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