The Russian invasion of Ukraine (2 Viewers)

Lili Marlene

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Even a peace deal looks cringe when it comes from him. Let the nukes fly!



Also:

 

Lili Marlene

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Saw a bit of a debate about Orwell and Ukraine kicking off from this



Had a thought and did a quick Google and, sure enough, here is the same essay being used to justify the war in Iraq

Getting Orwell Wrong – Armed and Dangerous

Not to mention that Russia are probably using the same essay to justify their "anti-Nazification special operation" or whatever the fuck they're calling it. It all just goes around and around doesn't it?

Very hard to know where to stand on all this, obviously want Ukraine free and Putin out but what's the actual path to that that doesn't end in nukes?

Suggestions, people!
 

flashback

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Very hard to know where to stand on all this, obviously want Ukraine free and Putin out but what's the actual path to that that doesn't end in nukes?

Suggestions, people!
dunno if you've seen this:


Seeing various sources saying that WWIII has already started. We just haven't accepted it yet. That is, Putin isn't fighting a war against Ukraine, he's started a war against The West. NATO is already full engaged, albeit currently by proxy.
 

Lili Marlene

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dunno if you've seen this:

Interesting again, so his as advice is to basically do none of the things we are currently doing.

Seeing various sources saying that WWIII has already started. We just haven't accepted it yet. That is, Putin isn't fighting a war against Ukraine, he's started a war against The West. NATO is already full engaged, albeit currently by proxy.
Well oh great!

Here's how I'm seeing it right now, Lili's attempted realpolitik lay of the land, do correct me where you think I'm way off:

What Ukraine wants: most obvious and we all want it, maybe minus the bloody revenge bit but if that did happen we will be quite forgiving of it.

What Russia wants: not fully clear. IMHO Putin wanted half of Ukraine and would have stopped there, others think he wanted a Russian Reich (tm) and would have been invading Poland before we knew it. Either way the fact that they can't even defeat Ukraine without massive cost pretty much definitively rules that out. There's talk of Russia turning into a "wartime economy," one hopes this would prove too much for those in charge, and some form of behind the scenes political coup happens and Putin gets ousted.

What NATO wants: They pushed their luck too far east for too long and probably want this to end ASAP, although there's all that speculation that they stopped those talks back in April/ and also the US maybe blew up the pipeline?? I don't  think any of the governments involved want a nuclear war, they backed down the other day by not approving Ukraine's NATO fast track application. This to me is the most shadowy part of the war. What exactly do they want to do with Putin if the war continues in Ukraine's favour? How much short of an unconditional surrender will NATO accept?

Commentators/publications with some sway:

The more prestigious you are, whether you're a liberal like Anne Applebaum/someone at the NYtimes/Guardian, or a more right wing Telegraph/Spectator columnist, the more likely you want nuclear war. You've decided that it's worth allowing some nukes in east Europe go off if it means the end of Putin.

On the right the split is with the MAGA people, the ones less concerned with prestige, they're anti war because of the quirk of Trump being anti war. If this changes we'll see it through Tucker Carlson. It's feels really weird after all those years of war in Iraq/on Terror, but it seems to be where they are.

Oh, and leftist Jacobin/Current Affairs/Red Pepper and the like: don't be ridiculous, these fanzines have no sway on the corridors of power.
 
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flashback

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Interesting again, so his as advice is to basically do none of the things we are currently doing.


Well oh great!

Here's how I'm seeing it right now, Lili's attempted realpolitik lay of the land, do correct me where you think I'm way off:

What Ukraine wants: most obvious and we all want it, maybe minus the bloody revenge bit but if that did happen we will be quite forgiving of it.

What Russia wants: not fully clear. IMHO Putin wanted half of Ukraine and would have stopped there, others think he wanted a Russian Reich (tm) and would have been invading Poland before we knew it. Either way the fact that they can't even defeat Ukraine without massive cost pretty much definitively rules that out. There's talk of Russia turning into a "wartime economy," one hopes this would prove too much for those in charge, and some form of behind the scenes political coup happens and Putin gets ousted.

What NATO wants: They pushed their luck too far east for too long and probably want this to end ASAP, although there's all that speculation that they stopped those talks back in April/ and also the US maybe blew up the pipeline?? I don't  think any of the governments involved want a nuclear war, they backed down the other day by not approving Ukraine's NATO fast track application. This to me is the most shadowy part of the war. What exactly do they want to do with Putin if the war continues in Ukraine's favour? How much short of an unconditional surrender will NATO accept?

Commentators/publications with some sway:

The more prestigious you are, whether you're a liberal like Anne Applebaum/someone at the NYtimes/Guardian, or a more right wing Telegraph/Spectator columnist, the more likely you want nuclear war. You've decided that it's worth allowing some nukes in east Europe go off if it means the end of Putin.

On the right the split is with the MAGA people, the ones less concerned with prestige, they're anti war because of the quirk of Trump being anti war. If this changes we'll see it through Tucker Carlson. It's feels really weird after all those years of war in Iraq/on Terror, but it seems to be where they are.

Oh, and leftist Jacobin/Current Affairs/Red Pepper and the like: don't be ridiculous, these fanzines have no sway on the corridors of power.

This has little enough to do with what Russia wants, it's what Putin wants. I think the majority of Russia was basically grand until they were told about the the Nazis from Mars that ran Ukraine, and even then they were probably grand with secret magic space Nazis running Ukraine until they were told that was bad. I don't think the average Russian gives the remotest of fucks what was going on in Ukraine before, nor what's going on now in Ukraine, up to and including war crimes. Conversely I'd imagine the ruling Russian elite are not at all thrilled with any of this imaginary Nazis war shit. It's only Putin pretty much.

Putin blew up the pipeline to ensure Russian oil companies don't have an easy out via killing him. Now they know it's pointless to kill Putin, they're still not going to be able to turn on the oil and get the money flowing because there are no pipes to turn on. So that deals with that potential Putin back stab. Putin's simultaneously lobbing cunts out of windows left and right who presumably might be *thinking* about any back stabby tricks.

The Maga crew don't matter. Tucker and palls can talk all the shite they want, nobody cares. They don't really care all that much themselves. Le Pen and Orban etc are more of a worry, but at the moment they don't seem to matter all that much either. For some reason that Meloni proto-fascist creature in Italy isn't pro Russian. But if loads of these guys start gaining power and aligning themselves with Russia that might be a problem.

I think NATO on the whole is politely bricking it. They know that Putin has to know that nukes will provoke pain being inflicted. They'd love if everything simmered the fuck down a bit. I think they are beavering away with their intel, and their conventional weapons, but in a way are in the passenger seat here. They're hoping for something to come along and deus ex machina them out of it, without any idea what that might be, other than Putin getting ousted.

So is Putin getting ousted? He's starting to annoy Russians a bit now possibly? Although he's selling the idea that everyone else started a war on them, and this is all being done to defend Russia from evil shapeshifting space Nazi lizards, stupid rude Yankies and snooty French. Everyone is out to get them etc.

I don't think Putin has a plan other than rebuild the Soviet empire (not looking great), else do as much as he can to annoy NATO. So in the meantime he'll grind on the war, keep everything ratcheted up, and who knows what happens in a few years, maybe Ukraine will fall apart. Ukraine isn't going to be happy with partial anything, and once they start getting Russia on the ropes they're not going to restrain themselves out of politeness. And Putin isn't going to take to that very well.

I'm not sure how every path doesn't lose here.
 

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A small bit of light nuclear exchange.

The Apple iBomb, "a more user friendly nuclear weapon" can be safely launched at the next Apple conference.
 

Lili Marlene

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I'm not sure how every path doesn't lose here.
Well FFS!

In regards saying Putin vs Russia, I suppose I'm saying Russia as I find it hard to believe this is just Putin, 100% alone, playing Command & Conquer. I'm trying to not make it a war of individual psychology that we simply have to diagnose to explain it all. What the average Russian on the street wants of course is a difference universe, but clearly Putin has an entire apparatus of various lackeys around him.

I agree the MAGA crew don't matter right now, but there's every chance they'll start mattering at some point down the line, possibly sooner than we'd like.
 

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