The Russian invasion of Ukraine (4 Viewers)

[rettucs]

Frame it as an incredibly brutal negotiation from Putin's end of things. You never ask for what you'll settle for initially because your opponent will always walk you back from this*. If Putin really only wanted eastern Ukraine he started off by saying he wanted the whole kit and caboodle**.

* Obama has spoken about this as one of his healthcare mistakes recently, he should have from the off gone for something that the republicans would be allergic to but he started off with a version of Mitt Romney plan which he thought they could live with and the republicans started slicing from there.

**This is also sort of an out for both sides here. Ukraine, if it were to give up those regions, could say that they've humiliated Russia by repelling them from their big aim, Ukraine lives (but is smaller) , Russia can spin it as getting what they always wanted anyway.

As long as Zelensky has a continuous stream of weapons coming from the west he will persist, and you couldn't really blame him.

 

[taubstumm]

Everything's a shadowy Nato plan
Boris said 'something' nefarious which we can never know what it is
There was hope from a reasonable Russia to find a peaceful solution, because they are clearly such honest dealers in the Kremlin, who always tell teh truth
This is all Nato's war
Poor ol' Russia up against it from the bad guys in the west again

Will you get over yourself, man?
Turn on a television station that isn't RT

The negotiations were not being entered into seriously by Russia
Or that's how Ukraine reported it

Boris indeed

I don’t know what to tell you, my dude. there’s nothing I post that you can’t go and check yourself. I just would love for ukraine to be able to overcome their situation of being trapped between two empires. I’ve spent time there, I have friends there. I’ve drunkenly played irish trad music in a kiev apartment block at three in the morning. but for some reason you think I’m a hyper-putin-fan or something.

 

[taubstumm]

If you want to read something by an actual ukrainian who is making many of the same points, volodymyr ishchenko is pretty great at sorting out the bullshit

Volodymyr Ishchenko, Towards the Abyss, NLR 133/134, January–April 2022

The Ukrainian political sociologist Volodymyr Ishchenko discusses the reasons for Kiev’s determined re-orientation to NATO and the European Union in the aftermath of the 2014 Maidan uprising—and the disastrous upshots of Putin’s invasion for his country.

newleftreview.org

he’s on twitter too, good follow

https://twitter.com/volod_ishchenko

 

[JohnnyRaz]

ukraine *was already* negotiating peace — not “pleading,” but more like sober realpolitik — back in *march*.

the talks were apparently at a fairly advanced stage back then, and the deal would have been along the lines of the minsk-2 deal, which itself has been the outline of a settlement for years, since 2015.

Zelensky says Ukraine prepared to discuss neutrality in peace talks

Ukraine's president says his country is open to adopting a neutral status as part of a possible peace deal.

www.bbc.com

it was soon after this point that boris suddenly popped up in ukraine. and soon after, various other prominent NATO leaders.

A wink and a walk: Boris Johnsonâs warm welcome on secret Kyiv visit

The PM flew to Poland and then travelled by Ukrainian rail for his meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskiy

www.theguardian.com

we don’t know what happened during this visit. but it seems possible that boris basically delivered some kind of ultimatum to zelensky. we don’t know what was agreed. we possibly never will. but the result was that the ukrainian side went all-in on NATO plans, NATO weapons, NATO artillery, and plenty more. this was the same moment when the western thinktank people started talking about comprehensively destroying the russian army and basically ruining russia as a society.

ever since then, the ukrainians have been getting absolutely shredded in the donbass, which is a horrific tragedy and a shocking waste of lives and futures. but the NATO-brain people don’t care. they want to fight russia to the last ukrainian.

regardless of the link to negotiations - there definitely was a shift to a view of this as a war to degrade Russian military strength from some sources.

 

[nuke terrorist]

I am not saying they should fight to the end, I am just glad that they are fighting and going toe to toe with these motherfuckers
I think they are doing the right thing. Good for them. And any right-thinking country should pitch in and help.
It's an unimaginable sacrifice what these people are giving for their country.
We should thank our lucky stars we'll never face such choices.

Russia would love them to stop fighting and just keep what they stole and then have a parade.
They can have a parade of fucking body bags for what they've done to Ukraine. The utter cunts.




I think you are personally very likeable and a very welcome presence on Thumped.
But your lens of viewing this - being any way whatsoever sympathetic to Russia and its tyrant - is way off base as far as I'm concerned.

Well just read the link to the Volodymyr Ishchenko interview link above and ignore what I said. he knows a lot more than me or you. compare the last few pages here to what he wrote - we're like Liveline!

 

[magicbastarder]

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[Deadmanposting]

I just would love for ukraine to be able to overcome their situation of being trapped between two empires

Is that the situation you think Ukraine are currently in?

Trapped in some game of Risk?
They got invaded. By an army of rapists that pillage and lay waste to cities and think nothing of bombing shopping centres and schools and hospitals.
There's a madman next door that wants an empire and he likes to bomb population centres.
That's their 'situation'

comprehensively destroying the russian army and basically ruining russia as a society.

How do you think all the dead the Georgians, Chechnyans, Ukrainians, Syrians, or for that matter the living Finns, the Latvians, the Lithuanians, the Estonians, the Poles would feel about the Russian army getting its head handed to it?
The Russian army is a threat to peace on all its western borders. It would be no bad thing for it to get crippled.
Oh nooo the Russian army might have tp pay a price for all its wars and murdering of innocents. oh nooo
Fuck those guys. I hope they burn for what they've done to those people.

As for Russian society, who's wrecked that? One man only. It's a criminal enterprise.
That must have been Nato too though, yeah?

 

[Unicron]

As for Russian society, who's wrecked that? One man only. It's a criminal enterprise.
That must have been Nato too though, yeah?

Well, if you go back far enough, say to the breakup of the Soviet Union, if you look at who was influencing the way things went from there, allowing the conditions for Putin to rise ...

It's a dirty, complicated situation. Rakes that people stepped on 30 years ago are now only just beginning to smash them in the face.

 

[Deadmanposting]

Well, if you go back far enough, say to the breakup of the Soviet Union, if you look at who was influencing the way things went from there, allowing the conditions for Putin to rise ...

It's a dirty, complicated situation. Rakes that people stepped on 30 years ago are now only just beginning to smash them in the face.

Yes, the Bolsehevik revolution was a catastrophe that led to countless Russians getting killed, in gulags and god knows where else
Stalin murdered however many million of his own people
The USSR was a brutal regime that collapsed because its own people hated it and it was built on lies
It's been replaced by a kleptocracy run by a mad man that murders anyone he feels like and wipes out cities on a whim
It is indeed a dirty complicated situation.
It's a shitshow of a country.
And Ukrainians are paying the price, just like the Georgians and Chechnyans before them.

Fuck knows what happens when Putin eventually dies, but I'm sure it won't be pretty. He's built a house of cards for himself.

These people had their compass smashed a century ago. They don't know up from down or lies from truth. A godawful mess.

 

[Deadmanposting]

regardless of the link to negotiations - there definitely was a shift to a view of this as a war to degrade Russian military strength from some sources.

Fucking great

Couldn't happen to a bigger bunch of utter cunts

 

[Unicron]

Fucking great

Couldn't happen to a bigger bunch of utter cunts

If rhe ultimate end to this war looks like something that could have been negotiated back in March that's a lot of human suffering for ordinary Ukrainians just to give Russia a bloody nose.

 

[egg_]

How do you think [Russia's neighbours] ... would feel about the Russian army getting its head handed to it?

I'm sure they'd be delighted, but that's just not possible. Ukrainians aren't going to sack Moscow and execute Putin and his cronies. All they can do is expend lives and resources to make Russia a bit less strong and a bit more aggrieved

 

[JohnnyRaz]

Fucking great

Couldn't happen to a bigger bunch of utter cunts

the problem is the ukrainians will be destroyed as much if not more by the end of it.

 

[Deadmanposting]

I'm sure they'd be delighted, but that's just not possible. Ukrainians aren't going to sack Moscow and execute Putin and his cronies. All they can do is expend lives and resources to make Russia a bit less strong and a bit more aggrieved

Well a bit less likely to try this shit again, we'd hope

Impunity has been taken out of the equation, which was something he could basically rely on

Big bad scary Nato who are always spoiling for a fight supposedly, wouldn't put it up to him in Syria and he slaughtered those people wholesale

There has to be a cost for this utter cunt's warmongering
Ukraine are willing to give it to him

 

[Deadmanposting]

the problem is the ukrainians will be destroyed as much if not more by the end of it.

And whose fault is that?

If they want to fight - and they do - let them fight this prick. Give them what they are asking for.

 

[Deadmanposting]

If rhe ultimate end to this war looks like something that could have been negotiated back in March that's a lot of human suffering for ordinary Ukrainians just to give Russia a bloody nose.

Well, that's what was happening
Everyone was trying to talk this prick out of doing what he's done.

Russia said "fuck negotiations, we choose slaughter"

Now all these lads on here are saying "Why don't the Ukrainians just negotiate?"
They already fecking tried that!
Everyone tried to talk Putin out of this.
Macron scurrying over like a sap. Germany pleading for anything but war. Ukrainians hoping that they could talk their way out of an invasion.

All that talking got them this.
Their people slaughtered and raped by monsters in uniforms.
That's where negotiating with this guy gets you.

 

[JohnnyRaz]

And whose fault is that?

If they want to fight - and they do - let them fight this prick. Give them what they are asking for.

to be clear - my concern with the approach of 'bleeding russia' is that those proposing it as their strategy may see it in their interests to give the ukrainians just enough to keep this going, but not enough to win. although what 'winning' means short of a major escalation means I don't know at this stage.

 

[Deadmanposting]

to be clear - my concern with the approach of 'bleeding russia' is that those proposing it as their strategy may see it in their interests to give the ukrainians just enough to keep this going, but not enough to win. although what 'winning' means short of a major escalation means I don't know at this stage.

The Americans will give them all they can.

BUT

The American public are dopes and care more about culture issues and the price of petrol. So there won’t be the kind of bipartisan support we saw early doors when they approved however many billions to help Ukraine.

Plus the US Congress will be even more MAGA come November than it already is, and those pricks are in sway to Trump and don’t want to send a penny abroad.
Short version is that there will likely be fewer missiles coming because all of those dopes over there can’t get out of their own way.


AND
there are finite amounts of those HIMARS available, and they are not easy to make. And the Americans want assurances from Ukraine that they will use them judiciously.
So that’s another limitation.



The idea that the Americans are trying to calibrate this flow of weapons to slowly bleed Russia in a war of attrition doesn’t really hold up when there are massive other logjams that the Pentagon can’t control at all.

The rest of Europe have next to fuck all of use to offer.

 

[Unicron]

The American public are dopes and care more about culture issues and the price of petrol. So there won’t be the kind of bipartisan support we saw early doors when they approved however many billions to help Ukraine.

It's barely on the news over there anymore. The american public has forgotten about it

 

[seanc]

The Americans will give them all they can.

BUT

The American public are dopes and care more about culture issues and the price of petrol. So there won’t be the kind of bipartisan support we saw early doors when they approved however many billions to help Ukraine.

Plus the US Congress will be even more MAGA come November than it already is, and those pricks are in sway to Trump and don’t want to send a penny abroad.
Short version is that there will likely be fewer missiles coming because all of those dopes over there can’t get out of their own way.


AND
there are finite amounts of those HIMARS available, and they are not easy to make. And the Americans want assurances from Ukraine that they will use them judiciously.
So that’s another limitation.



The idea that the Americans are trying to calibrate this flow of weapons to slowly bleed Russia in a war of attrition doesn’t really hold up when there are massive other logjams that the Pentagon can’t control at all.

The rest of Europe have next to fuck all of use to offer.

What's more complicated/troublesome: Americans making Himars or Russians building tanks?

There's also the British NLAWS, which are apparently quite effective.


The Russians have MOAR of everything for now, but they're shit. I'd imagine the yanks and brits are a bit more technically and logistically savvy than the Russians. And that's, well, it's not all that matters, but it matters a lot.

If the rest of Europe provides bandages and tyres and I dunno, and all the other things, then Putin might have a think about where he's at.

I wouldn't like or expect Ukraine to go into Russian territory, or for NATO to get directly involved.