The Russian invasion of Ukraine (1 Viewer)

Lili Marlene

SUCCESSTHINK
Supporter
Contributor
Joined
Oct 14, 2002
Messages
31,304
Solutions
3
Location
Way beyond the Rubicon
Fascinating and depressing discussion of the war with Richard Sakwa on this week's bungacast



Also a link to his January article in the Spectator

 

ann post

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 13, 2002
Messages
25,307
Solutions
1
Location
Internment Explorer sp3
Bollox- I know you think this has all gone to plan for putin - but I don’t think the evidence bears that out
What evidence? Constant gains across eastern Ukraine and a few distraction missions in Kiev and that island to scatter the enemy so he can bed in? It's not even complex war games; Carlow gaa have moves more complex than this.
 

taubstumm

Well-Known Member
Supporter
Joined
Aug 6, 2003
Messages
4,818
Location
52° 30′ 41.69″ n., 13° 27′ 38.42″ e.
Website
kvt.red
What evidence? Constant gains across eastern Ukraine and a few distraction missions in Kiev and that island to scatter the enemy so he can bed in? It's not even complex war games; Carlow gaa have moves more complex than this.

I think this is basically true. also the longer this has gone on, the less reliable the institute for the study of war have become. this recent line in particular was sort of ridiculous: “Ukrainian forces [...] probably aim to force the Russian offensive to culminate prematurely” — they can’t bear to just say what’s happening, which is that the ukrainian army is getting badly beaten. this is without even getting into the weird Kagan/neocon background of the ISW.



recently I’ve been looking at the account of this guy, who actually appears to be just some dude on the internet, and claims no special status or expertise, but whose updates are actually pretty good:

 

JohnnyRaz

Well-Known Member
Supporter
Joined
Sep 3, 2004
Messages
6,244
Location
drifting arround
What evidence? Constant gains across eastern Ukraine and a few distraction missions in Kiev and that island to scatter the enemy so he can bed in? It's not even complex war games; Carlow gaa have moves more complex than this.
I don’t disagree things are going better for them of late- and they are probably going to hold most of what they have now in almost any circumstance.

But…why this is (in my view) at least plan c:

- failure of their initial stated war aims -which was essentially regime change, and a swift campaign. and constant revision downwards of these. I don’t think you could class their advance to Kiev as a distraction- if it was it was a massively costly one- even by the standards of Russia historically.
- the fact that there’s been a number of changes in command. Plus the fact that they’ve lost senior commanders who’ve had to be at the front line kicking arse instead of back in hq

- in feb they were looking at regime change, in may talking about taking the whole south coast, and a big encirclement in the east. Now they are down to grinding out town by town a gradual takeover of one of the two original disputed regions. They’ve also been pushed back from Kharkiv.
- that island is hardly insignificant in terms of the role grain is going to play as this drags out

Again - I’m not disputing that things are going better - there’s a sense that they are now fighting on their own terms, that the west will probably just support Ukraine to the extent they can keep fighting but not win, and that things run onwards Russia will increasing get their shit together and at minimum well and truely dig in where they occupy. But I’d strongly dispute the idea that in Feb the lads expected and wanted to be in this position 4 months later.

And as to Carlows grasp of tactics - I wont dispute that, but the Russians have hardly looked like Donegal circa 2012 either
 

magicbastarder

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2006
Messages
10,117
Website
stroma.org
i find it hard to believe that this was putin's plan all along. getting bogged down in a protracted war against an enemy, costly in terms of war materiel, people, and international standing; a war which they'll eventually win through sheer numerical superiority; seems like a perverse plan to have launched into.
 

JohnnyRaz

Well-Known Member
Supporter
Joined
Sep 3, 2004
Messages
6,244
Location
drifting arround
I think this is basically true. also the longer this has gone on, the less reliable the institute for the study of war have become. this recent line in particular was sort of ridiculous: “Ukrainian forces [...] probably aim to force the Russian offensive to culminate prematurely” — they can’t bear to just say what’s happening, which is that the ukrainian army is getting badly beaten. this is without even getting into the weird Kagan/neocon background of the ISW.

Agreed 100%. Initially a lot of their ‘things to watch’ were bang on the money, but there’s a stronger bias emerging of late. It’s still a reasonable digest of what’s happening on the ground, but less reliable I think in terms of how things are interpreted.
 

taubstumm

Well-Known Member
Supporter
Joined
Aug 6, 2003
Messages
4,818
Location
52° 30′ 41.69″ n., 13° 27′ 38.42″ e.
Website
kvt.red
i find it hard to believe that this was putin's plan all along. getting bogged down in a protracted war against an enemy, costly in terms of war materiel, people, and international standing; a war which they'll eventually win through sheer numerical superiority; seems like a perverse plan to have launched into.

that’s true. though I do wonder where putin is planning to stop. if he leaves a rump ukraine in the west that is dominated by oligarchs, far-right militias, and angry war refugees, that might suit him fine. he might even manage to tempt hungary or romania to claim other bits of ukraine that they have some historical claim to, which instantly undermines nato unity and cohesion. for sure, no matter what happens, it’s a catastrophe for most ordinary ukrainians.
 

JohnnyRaz

Well-Known Member
Supporter
Joined
Sep 3, 2004
Messages
6,244
Location
drifting arround
. for sure, no matter what happens, it’s a catastrophe for most ordinary ukrainians.

I think that’s one thing we all can agree on - and unfortunately I think strategically at least some in the us/nato will see keeping it going to their advantage also.

In terms of what happens- I’d say Russia will continue to grind out gains in donbas, until at least they have taken Donetsk. The Ukrainians will probably try to focus more on the south. Russia will integrate what they’ve taken into the federation, and some sort of stasis will emerge in the next 6 months.

A lot in the longer term will depend on
A) how costly occupation is for the Russians
B) what china and turkey do
C) how the grain situation turns out in terms of the ability of the Ukrainians to export, or the rest of the world to source alternatives
D) regime changes either in Russia or Ukraine
 

Lili Marlene

SUCCESSTHINK
Supporter
Contributor
Joined
Oct 14, 2002
Messages
31,304
Solutions
3
Location
Way beyond the Rubicon
Is it not standard procedure for Russia to enter confidently into war, fuck up badly, and then win a long war of attrition? Like, the most predictable outcome is currently what is happening.

In regards the grain stuff, ive read some very conflicting reports, like how the (I'm making up these exact figures, but speaking generally) "80% of worlds exported grain comes from Ukraine" kind of stats are purposely misleading because in most countries about 90% of their grain is not imported but grown at home. It's only a few sub-saharan African countries who are dependent on Ukraine grain and, frankly, if we cared about them at all then the world would look very, very different.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

21 Day Calendar

Lightning Bolt
Whelans
25 Wexford St, Portobello, Dublin 2, D02 H527, Ireland
Panikatax, Chimers (Australia), Fierce Shook, Carpark Sci-fi
Bello Bar
1 Portobello Harbour, Saint Kevin's, Dublin, Ireland
Kurt Vile & The Violators
Vicar Street
Vicar St, Saint Catherine's, Dublin, Ireland
100 gecs
Olympia Theatre
72 Dame St, Temple Bar, Dublin, D02 K135, Ireland

Latest Activity

Loading…

Support thumped.com

Support thumped.com and upgrade your account

Upgrade your account now to disable all ads... If we had any... Which we don't right now.

Upgrade now

Latest posts

Trending Threads

Latest threads

Top