The Russian invasion of Ukraine (2 Viewers)

up until now, germany has been *extremely* reluctant to give serious weapons to the ukrainians. so, while the US and UK (and poland and plenty of other countries) have been giving them rockets and stuff, the germans have basically been hanging back, desperate for any excuse to try to slow things down.

various reasons: german reliance on russian gas (now a sudden real serious problem), german war guilt (german weapons killing russian soldiers again), SPD commitment to “wandel durch handel” (“change through trade” — i.e., slowly reforming russia through the power of german economic ties), germany’s previous attempts to assert an semi-independent foreign policy separate from NATO (nord stream 2 — now dead — and other similar initiatives), and just generally not wanting a serious war that can escalate in very unpredictable ways
That's pretty much spot on from my understanding

They are a very interesting case, the Germans.
Wandel durch handel kind of has its roots going back to the Hansa. But it also seems a little convenient.
Like taking the gas and oil while patting yourself on the back for progressing some form of high-minded diplomacy. This consensus made them a little blind.
Das Billige ist immer das Teuerste as an old lady lady in Zehlendorf once told me.

The writing has been on the wall with Putin for a very long time, but Germany thought they could have their cake and eat it with Nordstream II.
Was ist richtig, ist schwierig.
 
That's pretty much spot on from my understanding

They are a very interesting case, the Germans.
Wandel durch handel kind of has its roots going back to the Hansa. But it also seems a little convenient.
Like taking the gas and oil while patting yourself on the back for progressing some form of high-minded diplomacy. This consensus made them a little blind.
Das Billige ist immer das Teuerste as an old lady lady in Zehlendorf once told me.

The writing has been on the wall with Putin for a very long time, but Germany thought they could have their cake and eat it with Nordstream II.
Was ist richtig, ist schwierig.
in fairness we all thought Nordstream II could give the west a bit of leverage when it came to trying to dissuade Putin from being a cunt and invading Ukraine.
 

Trying to find some analysis of this beyond the propaganda/panic!

obviously the retaliation for doing this would spell the end of eurasia and eastern europe as a habitable place. but is this possible? the cobalt 'doomsday bomb' has been an idea since the 50s.
 

Trying to find some analysis of this beyond the propaganda/panic!

obviously the retaliation for doing this would spell the end of eurasia and eastern europe as a habitable place. but is this possible? the cobalt 'doomsday bomb' has been an idea since the 50s.

Probably isn't really worth thinking about very much.
They're cunts. They want to do the North Korea shouty stuff, they've got fuck all left other than doing shouty stuff. They could probably detonate some big stuff off the Irish coast, and it would probably be carnage. But it would be completely pointless and, like you said, result in them finding out why the US doesn't have a proper health care system in short order.

It's shite talking. Lads calling out other lads for fights on YouTube.
 

Trying to find some analysis of this beyond the propaganda/panic!

obviously the retaliation for doing this would spell the end of eurasia and eastern europe as a habitable place. but is this possible? the cobalt 'doomsday bomb' has been an idea since the 50s.
And people wonder what's going on in the heads of the average Russian. This is where they get their information, how can you expect them to have nuanced views on world affairs? They're playing geo-politics, but their propagandists can't even read a map properly.
 
general comment - I still cannot believe this war is happening. I am shock at how insane it is.

anyway moving on....
but how are the oligarch's coping?
Oleg Tinkov is (was?) a Russian billionaire who sponsored a succesful cycling team named after his Tinkoff Bank - he was a very hands on loudmouth who was good for OTT quotes.

After sanctions related to Crimea, Tinkov's problems began to mount including facing a huge tax bill in the US in 2020.
Since the Ukraine war started Tinkoff Bank's value dropped by 90% and Tinkov recently sold his 35% stake in what he called a forced sale. Oleg Tinkov claimed the government threatened to nationalise Tinkoff Bank if he didn't sell his stake.
Tinkov has strongly opposed the war and heavily criticised Putin. Vlad was someone Oleg was once defensive of but now Tinkov squarely blames him for his woes and says his life is at risk.

April 20 2022 CNN:
The FT won't let me link it's article.
 

Trying to find some analysis of this beyond the propaganda/panic!

obviously the retaliation for doing this would spell the end of eurasia and eastern europe as a habitable place. but is this possible? the cobalt 'doomsday bomb' has been an idea since the 50s.
I mean in fairness to them Liz Truss did effectively try and single handledly declare war on Russia on behalf of the UK so it's only fair they respond with something equally stupid.

Maybe the Torys could stop saying incredibly dumb, reckless stuff just to please a few home county lunati-, no wait, no that'll never happen, carry on.
 
general comment - I still cannot believe this war is happening. I am shock at how insane it is.

anyway moving on....
but how are the oligarch's coping?
Oleg Tinkov is (was?) a Russian billionaire who sponsored a succesful cycling team named after his Tinkoff Bank - he was a very hands on loudmouth who was good for OTT quotes.

After sanctions related to Crimea, Tinkov's problems began to mount including facing a huge tax bill in the US in 2020.
Since the Ukraine war started Tinkoff Bank's value dropped by 90% and Tinkov recently sold his 35% stake in what he called a forced sale. Oleg Tinkov claimed the government threatened to nationalise Tinkoff Bank if he didn't sell his stake.
Tinkov has strongly opposed the war and heavily criticised Putin. Vlad was someone Oleg was once defensive of but now Tinkov squarely blames him for his woes and says his life is at risk.

April 20 2022 CNN:
The FT won't let me link it's article.
This guy's story has been about the past few days.
Yeah, he came out against the war on Instagram or one of those.
He's in London and also because he's got some kind of cancer feels more free to speak his mind.

The cost for that is basically losing everything he's got. Dunno why he's acting even mildly surprised, the dogs on the street could have told him this would happen.
If he wasn't already in London, he'd be more likely in jail or dead.

Not crying for the guy, but this is everyone else's card marked; speak up and you'll get royally fucked.
As if they didn't know already like.
There are no competing realities in Putin's Russia.
Uno duce, una voce.
 
And people wonder what's going on in the heads of the average Russian. This is where they get their information, how can you expect them to have nuanced views on world affairs? They're playing geo-politics, but their propagandists can't even read a map properly.


I think @flashback north korean comparison is probably apt. There's a touch of turning seoul into a lake of fire claims about this.

and yes - if this is primetime for your average Russian its not going to lead to many of them having a great insight on their country's role in the world. no more than Fox
 
This guy's story has been about the past few days.
Yeah, he came out against the war on Instagram or one of those.
He's in London and also because he's got some kind of cancer feels more free to speak his mind.

The cost for that is basically losing everything he's got. Dunno why he's acting even mildly surprised, the dogs on the street could have told him this would happen.
If he wasn't already in London, he'd be more likely in jail or dead.

Not crying for the guy, but this is everyone else's card marked; speak up and you'll get royally fucked.
As if they didn't know already like.
There are no competing realities in Putin's Russia.
Uno duce, una voce.
didn't know Tinkov was in London. he is or was under UK sanctions himself. he's had leukemia but I'm not sure of his health status.
oligarch's knew not to fuck with Putin and this confirms it.
I hate billionaires and Tinkov probably (was) a typical one.
apparently Oleg Tinkov was a very good youth cyclist in 1980's and wanted to get a place in the Soviet development team but he wasn't good enough and his life took a more unpleasant path.
 
oligarch's knew not to fuck with Putin and this confirms it.
I'd have thought that Khodorkovsky's attempt at having an opinion confirmed this a long time back

Or Nemtsov, or the Skripals, or Navalny - you don't have to be a billionaire. you just have to have an opinion.

Isn't Putin something of a multi-billionaire himself?
 
It's only a small matter in the grand scheme of things but Abramovich seems to have thrown a spanner into the works of the Chelsea sale by now saying that he wants the 1.6 billion loan he has given the club to be repaid from the proceeds of the sale.

This could really mess things up for them as they only have a special licence to operate until May 31st.

If they don't have a licence then they may not be granted entry to next season's premier league.

2 potential mischief making consequences of this:

1. Chelsea are a well supported cultural institution who's fanbase has a reputation for being Tory/right wing. I'm not sure they'd be happy for the government to see the ruination of their club.

2. The PL is Britain's most successful piece of international soft-power exercising/their biggest global cultural export; no Chelsea next season and how to resolve that is a real headache for them. If for no other reason that the lawyers for the team that comes 18th this year and the ones for the side that comes 3rd in the championship will be arguing over who is better entitled to the 20th spot in the league.
 
It's only a small matter in the grand scheme of things but Abramovich seems to have thrown a spanner into the works of the Chelsea sale by now saying that he wants the 1.6 billion loan he has given the club to be repaid from the proceeds of the sale.

This could really mess things up for them as they only have a special licence to operate until May 31st.

If they don't have a licence then they may not be granted entry to next season's premier league.

2 potential mischief making consequences of this:

1. Chelsea are a well supported cultural institution who's fanbase has a reputation for being Tory/right wing. I'm not sure they'd be happy for the government to see the ruination of their club.

2. The PL is Britain's most successful piece of international soft-power exercising/their biggest global cultural export; no Chelsea next season and how to resolve that is a real headache for them. If for no other reason that the lawyers for the team that comes 18th this year and the ones for the side that comes 3rd in the championship will be arguing over who is better entitled to the 20th spot in the league.
oh man
i saw the headline, i didn't know that loan was so potentially damaging

I'm sure they'll make it work, but damn. They need that licence.

Apart from anything else, they should have to pay it back. Fair play and all that.
Pay it to escrow, but pay it back.
 
How long is it going to sit there? Will he ever be de-sanctioned?
Oh, man. I don't have the brain power for that.
Just thinking the objection to paying him back was that it would break sanctions or whatever.
It just doesn't seem fair that a club should get a few billion in cancellable loans. Goes to show that CFC are really just Crystal Palace on steroids.

But the league's finances are kind of beyond me, if I'm honest
 
Paying back your debts is not the way to win in this world, ask any billionaire. Don't pay him back says I, force him to get the law involved and open up his own finances to scrutiny.
 

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