The Russian invasion of Ukraine (1 Viewer)

taubstumm

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the point made in this article — that the probable real target of pressure here is germany — is ultimately an explanation that fits the facts. if germany announced tomorrow that they’re shutting down nord stream 2, this whole thing would evaporate fairly fast
 

Lili Marlene

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I find it hard to agree that "Putin's thing" is any worse than NATO. I mean, tell that to Afghanistan or Libya, both beneficiaries of NATO's thing, of NATO's policy of "democracy."

Putin can fuck off sure, but we actually have some influence on NATO, even at such a remove as Ireland. This is the shit they used to sell the Iraq war and we shouldn't be falling for it.
 

rettucs

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Latvia would be at much bigger risk from Russian invasion by dint of having a significant ethnic Russian minority from the USSR days but sure I can see why smaller countries on the periphery of Russia might want to be included under the collective security umbrella of NATO. However, it is interesting to note that neither Finland (fought two wars with Soviet Union as part of broader WWII) nor Sweden are members, while the likes of Portugal, completely safe from any conventional attack from the Russian bear, is.

I think part of the problem is that Russia fought a very bloody, essentially existential war still within living memory and rightly or wrongly never wants to get caught with its pants down again geopolitically. You'd think having an arsenal of nuclear weapons would suffice in this regard but seemingly not.

It boggles my mind that the country with the largest land area and vast natural resources and a decent sized population isn't prospering more than it currently does. The various conflict loci in Russia's Near Abroad all seem to centre on relatively small populations of ethnic Russians, Abhkazia, Donetsk, South Ossetia, Transnistria etc. I assume some aspect of the sabre rattling is in order to quell internal disquiet at the state of the country.
25% of Latvia's population identify as Russian. It was either the last election or the one before that where the party representing those people became the majority, mostly because the non-Russian vote was split too many ways.

But I'm curious on what threat you perceive there being. There is a lot of paranoia on the ground over there. A lot of people are expecting they will try and take them back at some point, but then they do love a good conspiracy theory (as evidenced by the level of anti-vax nonsense).

The Russian cohort are not discriminated against.. They wouldn't be especially liked by a lot of people but, the fact is that a lot of elderly people only speak Russian, even in the areas where the Russian identifying population wouldn't be so numerous. Signage is generally in both languages. To work in a government job or a bank you need to be fluent in both Latvian and Russian. Its not exactly West Belfast in terms of acrimony. There's also a shit lot of Russian money in Latvia and parts of Lithuania (I know less about Estonia but I'm sure there's plenty there too - Estonia is by far and away the most affluent of the Baltic states).

Its kind of ironic in a way. The way Brits bleat on about winning 2 world wars and a world cup. Russia contributed more to the demise of nazi-ism than those pricks ever did.
 

flashback

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hoary old pub chat, but i have once or twice heard the claim that killary harbour and possibly killybegs have nukes from both sides aimed on them - strategically placed deep water harbours.
Killary is where the Rooskies keep their special ops trained attack conger eels, they have nukes pointed at Killary as a safety measure in case the eels go rogue.

The Yanks have nukes pointed at Killary in case the Russian nukes don't do the job. It's eel Armageddon down there. Local lads out going for swim getting their faces ate off them and stuff. It's the worst kept secret in marine biology.

 

Scientician 0.8

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25% of Latvia's population identify as Russian. It was either the last election or the one before that where the party representing those people became the majority, mostly because the non-Russian vote was split too many ways.

But I'm curious on what threat you perceive there being. There is a lot of paranoia on the ground over there. A lot of people are expecting they will try and take them back at some point, but then they do love a good conspiracy theory (as evidenced by the level of anti-vax nonsense).

The Russian cohort are not discriminated against.. They wouldn't be especially liked by a lot of people but, the fact is that a lot of elderly people only speak Russian, even in the areas where the Russian identifying population wouldn't be so numerous. Signage is generally in both languages. To work in a government job or a bank you need to be fluent in both Latvian and Russian. Its not exactly West Belfast in terms of acrimony. There's also a shit lot of Russian money in Latvia and parts of Lithuania (I know less about Estonia but I'm sure there's plenty there too - Estonia is by far and away the most affluent of the Baltic states).

Its kind of ironic in a way. The way Brits bleat on about winning 2 world wars and a world cup. Russia contributed more to the demise of nazi-ism than those pricks ever did.

I have no idea if it is a significant risk, I just meant that of all the bordering minnows, Latvia would be the most logical candidate. Guaranteeing the security of Russian people in their Near Abroad using physical force has demonstrably been a part of Russian foreign policy since the dissolution of the USSR, so it wouldn't be beyond the pale. No idea whether Latvian ports offer better options in Winter etc either.

Ukraine, is a whole nudder kettle of grenades. The Russians already control those parts of it that they can reasonably hold. If they initiate a broader invasion, I can't see it working out well for them, even if they ostensbility swiftly capture Kyiv and other major cities, it's a vast, heavily populated place to occupy, containing an enemy backed by the most powerful armies in the world, who will have means to strike back at Russian cities.

At the same time, I don't see a direct NATO - Russia war happening, the stakes are too high.

As others have said above, it all feels a bit like a vaguely coordinated circus to shore up ailing administrations in US, Britain and Russia etc.
 

flashback

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Jesus.. just had a look at the internet. Conger eels to one side for a moment, we're definitely grand with the old WWIII business yeah?
 

hydromancer

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Russia is still regularly carrying out arests on any kind of social protest since the Navalny case much like Belarus and I suppose a parallel could be drawn between the civil unrest that was happening in the US when Trump was president. One of the news sites covering it I know is Экспресс-новости I don't follow it much.
It would be hard to ignore the ongoing military movement on both sides though. The US and Russia more or less were at conflict in Syria amongst others so it's not unimaginable that they could again in another territory. As Obama said "Regan would turn in his grave". Maybe it's the old mistake of trying to enforce certain "values" in other parts of the world. I know some would view Russia as being European and others as simply a rural and even feudal society and others again who consider it as actually being worse to live in since the break up of the USSR it does seem to hold on to an imperial perspective to some degree even intervening in Kazakhstan recently.
 

ann post

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In complete unfounded theories

Post covid young men are full of all sorts of ideas and sending 100,000 of them off to some outpost to pretend they have something to do for a year is a great way to avoid them getting all hot and bothered and annoyed with oligarchs and leaders. focuses the mind...

I have nothing for backing this other than what i made up.
 

magicbastarder

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In complete unfounded theories

Post covid young men are full of all sorts of ideas and sending 100,000 of them off to some outpost to pretend they have something to do for a year is a great way to avoid them getting all hot and bothered and annoyed with oligarchs and leaders. focuses the mind...

I have nothing for backing this other than what i made up.
elvis costello now thinking of ways to rewrite 'oliver's army' to 'vladimir's army' with a handy way of removing the lyric which has been problematic
 

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