north korea: "it on now bitches" (1 Viewer)

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When it does finally collapse its gonna be extremely messy with millions fleeing the country while the US/South Korean and Chinese militaries rush in in an attempt to provide as big a buffer from the other side as possible. And thats before we account for the North Korean military, Seoul is maybe 50km from the border, even if North Korea use only conventional weapons the death toll could easily reach hundreds of thousands.
 

7 - No tomorrow

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When it does finally collapse its gonna be extremely messy with millions fleeing the country while the US/South Korean and Chinese militaries rush in in an attempt to provide as big a buffer from the other side as possible. And thats before we account for the North Korean military, Seoul is maybe 50km from the border, even if North Korea use only conventional weapons the death toll could easily reach hundreds of thousands.

Will it collapse though? That little fat fuck seems to have an iron grip on shit there, especially now.
You'd have kind of thought that the Chinese could have smartened him up a bit. Clearly not the case.
I just see it dragging out forever.
 

ann post

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The one thing we know about that place is that we know very little at all.
my uncle, that i live with has been there twice. about twenty years ago, and and in the past decade. (while Il is john was still alive).

He was saying the level of suppression and general feeling of overbearing military scariness increased a lot in that time.
 

pete

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When Kim Jong Un was elected vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party of Korea… “he [Jang] behaved so arrogantly and insolently as unwillingly standing up from his seat and half-heartedly clapping, touching off towering resentment of our service personnel and people.”
“He was so imprudent as to prevent the Taedonggang Tile Factory from erecting a mosaic depicting Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il and a monument to field guidance given by them. Moreover, Jang turned down the unanimous request of the service personnel of a unit of the Korean People’s Internal Security Forces to have the autograph letter sent by Kim Jong Un to the unit carved on a natural granite and erected with good care in front of the building of its command. He was so reckless as to instruct the unit to erect it in a shaded corner.”
The special military tribunal of the Ministry of State Security of the DPRK confirmed that the state subversion attempted by the accused Jang with an aim to overthrow the people’s power of the DPRK by ideologically aligning himself with enemies is a crime punishable by Article 60 of the DPRK Criminal Code, vehemently condemned him as a wicked political careerist, trickster and traitor for all ages in the name of the revolution and the people and ruled that he would be sentenced to death according to it.

The decision was immediately executed.
What North Korea Said About Jang Song Thaek - Korea Real Time - WSJ
 

7 - No tomorrow

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This is from a friend on FB. I haven't even read all of it. But he says the guy that wrote it knows his stuff.

As I am compelled to chime in on anything regarding BestKorea, here is my 2 cents. As usual I am giving the standard disclaimer that just because I am talking about north Korea in a manner not involving poking fun at it I am not in any way a supporter of the North Korean government or regime.

*Ahem*

1. Jang almost certainly wasn't executed for supporting economic reforms. Using his number of public appearances as an indicator his power waned long before this, his dramatic and bloody exit. However, even as Jang's power declined the pace of economic reform in North Korea sped up with the creation of 14 new SEZ's, dramatic wage rises in profitable industries (Which miraculously hasn't caused inflation in basic goods due to the issuing of at least some of the wages in food and clothing), and the signing of agreements with southeast Asian consortiums to develop the new SEZ's. Simultaneously with the beginning of Jang's near terminal decline the young Marshal appointed Pak Pong-Ju, North Korea's leading technocrat and known advocate of economic reform, as premier and started transferring economic planning to the cabinet (Which reports to the premier).

2. This will likely not mean instability in the NK, as there is no one left with power even approaching that of the now-deceased Jang Song-Taek, much less the Suryong. The top military brass has been gutted and largely replaced with a younger group of generals who are in their 40's-60's, as has the civilian bureaucracy. Chasu (Vice-Marshall) Choe Ryong-Hae (A Presidum of the Politburo member and Head of the KPA General Political Department, chief Commissar essentially) is the next most powerful person, but he has no power base as the profession military who report to him despise his lack of real military experience and would gladly serve him up on a silver platter if asked to do so by KJU. More than likely we will see a week of extremely bloody, order 66-esque purge, and then a return to quiet on the anniversary of KJI's death.

3. Do not underestimate KJU. I cannot stress this enough. He may be young, and his diameter may rival that of a small moon, but he has proven quite resourceful politically. He was chosen from amongst the living main-line relatives of Kim Il-Sung by Kim Jong-Il precisely because he was the best suited amongst them to run North Korea. He is not over-indulgent and relatively dim-witted like his oldest brother Kim Jong-Nam, who the Chinese government is hiding from North Korea. and he was not weak and lacking in leadership qualities like his other brother Jong-Chul. Out of the seven regents appointed to help him govern when KJI died 5 are dead or disappeared from the face of existence, and 2 have been forcibly retired or demoted into irrelevance. The North Korean economy has grown under him, even South Korean sources begrudgingly admit this, and the academic consensus is that life actually has improved in general under him betwixt a nation wide construction boom and increasing food production. Simultaneously their Nuclear and Missile programs have advanced alarmingly dramatically and various other new military technologies have been deployed. There is some expert questioning as to how he managing to fund all this, but somehow he is managing it.

4. All this debate on whether on not KJU will reform the economy is nonsense. He will eventually, and the groundwork is being laid already, if only because he must. The question is to whether or not the regime of the Mangyongdae Kim's can survive such a transition and if they do how tight a grip they'll be able to maintain. If the Norks do not reform their economy then the North Korean state will endure for another couple decades, and then, in all probability, finally reach the end of its lifespan. For Kim Jong-Il this was fine as he would be long dead by then. Kim Jong-Un needs the DPRK to survive for at least 5 decades or more if he intends to die, in power, in his bed (or in front of his Mac as the case may be with KJI), at a nice ripe old age.

5. Building on the above there are several things that need to be done before economic reforms can happen. Kim needs to crush any potential opposition to his absolute rule as Suryong (Great/Fatherly/Dear Leader) from the upper echelons of power. Like Tiananmen square cowed the Chinese population during the most dangerous year of economic reform this is likely meant to be a show to point out that NO ONE is safe, not even blood relatives in the politburo. Secondly, the workers party needs to be gutted from the ground up. It has become a dysfunctional, staggeringly corrupt organization rife with embezzlement and drug use and to maintain control over the populace it needs to be restored to the moral standing it had with North Koreans during the time of Kim Il-Sung. If I were Kim Jong-Un I would use Jang Song-Taek as an excuse to kill or replace as many Worker's Party Cadres as feasible and use the position of First Secretary to stuff it with new people who will wholly loyal to you for raising them up and simultaneously in great fear of you for the stunning brutality you can show when crossed. (Similar to the model of the God of the Old Testament). Finally, the northern border needs to be resealed to defectors and the agricultural sector restored to being able to provide for everyone. The first has been basically accomplished with this years number of defectors at less than 1000 and dropping compared to ~3000 in 2009 with most sources citing a combination increased border security and improving conditions inside north Korea. The food deficit itself (Athough North Korean's by no means enjoy an abundance of food) has been reduced after imports to a mere 40,000 compared to a production of 5.03 Million tonnes compared to the staggering 2.1 Million tonne deficit of 1997 at the height of the famine next to a production of 2.7 Million Tonnes.

6. Finally, this purge was to be expected eventually. It just came as a surprise to most observers how public it was and how quickly it came. Academic sources expected at the time of KJI's death that it would take KJU 5-10 years to secure North Korea, he has managed it in two. Next year will likely feature North Koreas first LWR coming online (an experimental 25MWe that is a prototype for larger examples), perhaps another satellite launch, the first test of the Hwasong-13 (KN-08) ICBM, and if the launch is condemned by the UNSC, quite possibly a nuclear test. This "Provocation Cycle" is symptomatic of the immeasurable gulf between both sides negotiating positions. Both the US and North Korea treat negotiations as if they were accepting an unconditional surrender. The US expects north Korea to disarm itself and admit to being wrong under laws and resolutions it (the DPRK) doesn't recognize before it even thinks about addressing North Korea's inherent security concerns. The North Koreans accepted just such an arrangement in the 90's and never will again because once north Korea completed its obligations the US stopped fulfilling theirs and ignored them until it perceived a threat again. Simultaneously the North Korean's refuse to negotiate except on the premise that the DPRK is a lawful Nuclear Weapons state which, if accepted as a premise, would invalidate everything the US is trying to accomplish (Stability in NE Asia for economic reasons and defanging a dangerous enemy). And so we sit at an impasse. North Korea will never give up its Nuclear Weapons due to the example set by Libya. And even if North Korea's efforts to survive utterly fail we can expect them to be around for another decade or two. Since we are unwilling to prosecute the military invasion of North Korea due the staggering cost in both lives and economically for both the US, SK, the DPRK, and the rest of the world in general we must deal with North Koreans as they are, and not as we want them to be. We must, for better or worse, learn to live with the Juch'e-Song'un State.
 
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Will it collapse though? That little fat fuck seems to have an iron grip on shit there, especially now.
You'd have kind of thought that the Chinese could have smartened him up a bit. Clearly not the case.
I just see it dragging out forever.
The Chinese are most concerned with keeping America at arms length and not having millions of refugees crossing the border, if they need to prop up a madman and suffer his idiocy to do the above then it's a small price for them to pay.
I think they (the Kim's) will be lucky to get another twenty years, the outside world is slowly filtering in, as people in NK realise exactly how shit they have it they'll start clamouring for a better life and once that gets some momentum the regimes days will be numbered.
 
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That's as good a piece of analysis as I've read. And it's from a guy on some other message board.
Yeah, its hard to find a succinct analysis like that, fair play to the mystery man.
One thing to bear in mind in such situations is the Soviet Union. Nobody seen the collapse of that coming or the fact that it would be near instantaneous and relatively bloodless. Not to say that's gonna happen in NK, rather, sometimes events overtake everybody, even the experts.
 

washingcattle

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The Chinese are most concerned with keeping America at arms length and not having millions of refugees crossing the border, if they need to prop up a madman and suffer his idiocy to do the above then it's a small price for them to pay.
I think they (the Kim's) will be lucky to get another twenty years, the outside world is slowly filtering in, as people in NK realise exactly how shit they have it they'll start clamouring for a better life and once that gets some momentum the regimes days will be numbered.
Well there's two ways of looking at that, one
The one thing we know about that place is that we know very little at all.
We know it's one of the poorest countries on the planet.

Perhaps one reason the Chinese keep these lunatics in place is that they can't possibly fathom the effect of economic refugees flooding over their borders.
 

7 - No tomorrow

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Well there's two ways of looking at that, one


We know it's one of the poorest countries on the planet.

Perhaps one reason the Chinese keep these lunatics in place is that they can't possibly fathom the effect of economic refugees flooding over their borders.
Yeah, and better to have someone on your border even nominally communist than a unified Korea with US bases on it.
 

Psycho Punk

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When it does finally collapse its gonna be extremely messy with millions fleeing the country while the US/South Korean and Chinese militaries rush in in an attempt to provide as big a buffer from the other side as possible. And thats before we account for the North Korean military, Seoul is maybe 50km from the border, even if North Korea use only conventional weapons the death toll could easily reach hundreds of thousands.
Even if it just collapsed peacefully there would be seriou economic problems.

Unifying Korea would make German Unification ( cost DM850 billion) look like a tea party.
 

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