I think there's a good chance of FG getting a seat back there (former Garret Fitzgerald territory) and there's a good chance of SF ousting McDowell. I'd say McDowell's chances are about fifty-fifty - if he gets through it will be on the last count.
i must say, i can't wait to watch the count in that constituency (and have been practising my victory dance in case he does lose his seat). is any other as exciting?