General election 2020 (2 Viewers)

nuke terrorist

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Alan Kelly is right wing in all but name.
he got the fifth and final seat here in Tipperary last time.
not a certainty to be reelected.

in Tipp Seamus Hayes (Clonmel) is strongly left wing. but hasn't got much
of a presence in North Tipp. SF transfers got him reelected last time.
one most left wing rural TD's

the rest is a horror show -
Jackie Cahill - (Thurles area) faceless FF man in his 60's. last time was first time running.

Mattie McGrath (Clonmel) former FF who jumped a shinking ship in late 2000's.
high profile anti abortion campaigner, catholic arch conservative, who sounds like
a character off TV show Killascully. like Lowry he's well organized locally.

Michael Lowry - from Holycross near Thurles.
just an abomination.
almost like a cult leader to a highly organized group of followers.
he will be elected on the first count (as usual).
like Cahill and McGrath he was against abortion referendum.

no FG TD's in Tipperary (see Lowry). won't be this time either i think,
Kelly and maybe Hayes are at risk,
 

egg_

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For anything to really change environment-wise we'd need environment/transport/agri all controlled by Greens (or someone else who actually gave a shit). A Green environment minister alone will only make a marginal difference

Haha just thinking about how my neighbours would feel about a Green agri minister. Though in fairness I feel like Saoirse is really talking a good game to the small farmers
 

7 - No tomorrow

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It certainly is - I could see lab/GR looking at it as a path to redemption, as they clearly haven't lived down their previous coalitions in the public memory, SD's would need a lot more on the table to join up as murphy is a serious player. PBP I just dont know.

I should know this, but do SF have any kind of transfer policy?
Like do they tell their followers to be transfer friendly to PBP, Labour etc?

Like maybe that’s the kind of thing that happens naturally – but if we are trying to nudge the needle left, it’s something that should happen more, if SF’s poll numbers on 1st preferences hold up
 

Unicron

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I should know this, but do SF have any kind of transfer policy?
Like do they tell their followers to be transfer friendly to PBP, Labour etc?

Like maybe that’s the kind of thing that happens naturally – but if we are trying to nudge the needle left, it’s something that should happen more, if SF’s poll numbers on 1st preferences hold up
Traditionally SF voters have fallen into 2 camps, though this may be seriously out of date in the past decade.

The one and done voter who gives no transfers and once the SF candidate is gone that's it, and then there's the type who transfers to FF, what with them being "the republican party."

Can't imagine there are too many of the latter type around but that being said I think the recent rise in the polls for SF is down to FG voters saying they'll vote FF, and FF voters swinging to SF. So there may be a sizeable swing cohort there.
 

riath

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Alan Kelly is right wing in all but name.
he got the fifth and final seat here in Tipperary last time.
not a certainty to be reelected.




no FG TD's in Tipperary (see Lowry). won't be this time either i think,
Kelly and maybe Hayes are at risk,
I think Kelly is going to get in easier this time. As far as I remember, the boundaries included a bit of Offaly and it cut into his numbers. He is more like a Tipp Healy Rae than a main party politician, which works for Nenagh.
I agree with Lowry being a first count winner, which says it all really.

I’ve started canvassing for a candidate that I honestly think can make a difference if she gets in.
People have been more willing to listen than I’d have though.
The main thing I’ve heard is that they’ll vote for anyone but FG/FF, so it’ll be an interesting coalition whoever gets in.
 

nuke terrorist

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I think Kelly is going to get in easier this time. As far as I remember, the boundaries included a bit of Offaly and it cut into his numbers. He is more like a Tipp Healy Rae than a main party politician, which works for Nenagh.
I agree with Lowry being a first count winner, which says it all really.

I’ve started canvassing for a candidate that I honestly think can make a difference if she gets in.
People have been more willing to listen than I’d have though.
The main thing I’ve heard is that they’ll vote for anyone but FG/FF, so it’ll be an interesting coalition whoever gets in.
good point Riath-
the north/north west of Tipperary area was in Offaly last time.
e.g. Borrisokane, Cloughjordan etc.
Nenagh is the market town for a lot of that area (some of it is
closer to smaller towns of Roscrea, Birr or Portumna )
last time Roscrea (already on border anyway) lost a lot of it's hinterland.
Roscrea had two TD's when North Tipp and South Tipp were separate
electoral areas but none now.

in a rural area people will vote for a local candidate just because they're local.
in an urban area this isn't an issue
 

ann post

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based on current poll numbers, i can't see it being anything other than FF/FG again.
If the centre left aren't capable of pushing towards a left alliance and presenting it as an alternative, Then I agree with you.

I might be wrong but I could see the 'left' parties gaining a fair bit between now and then.
 

ann post

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When I was at the fake EU leaders debate it sorta played out a bit like this - IN the EU one coalition is a given, so attacks only went in certain directions across the floor. (I only saw the last hour)

MM olive branched the greens by repeating 80% of what ER said on climate.
SD didn't attack left of floor.
SF didn't attack left of floor.
LAB didn't attack the left of floor.
PBP obvs attacked the right.

So FF thinking about greens in coalition,
FG thinking they are gonna be handed the dail somehow.
SF looking at opposition or Left alliance.

obvs all this will dissolve at the next poll.
 

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