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ann post

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for posterity i'd like to point out that the above garden shed in dublin is requesting more 200% of what my 3 bed actual house costs to rent in letterkenny. serious collapose of fake economy incoming...

Consider me to be the lad walking around in the sandwhich board at this point.
 

Lili Marlene

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for posterity i'd like to point out that the above garden shed in dublin is requesting more 200% of what my 3 bed actual house costs to rent in letterkenny. serious collapose of fake economy incoming...
yeah but when and how? Everyone is saying this but is throwing out numbers from 6 months to 5 years.

The best piece i've read on it is this

Irish house prices sky-high due to finance not scarcity

but even that doesn't give a forecast. Do we need to wait for Silicon Valley to implode (since all the jobs in Ireland are vaguely tech or tech-dependent), and are we confident that it actually will? The alternative is that they are successful and the entire world is run on uber/amazon/apple/air bnb etc. , I see that as just as likely.
 

ann post

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yeah but when and how? Everyone is saying this but is throwing out numbers from 6 months to 5 years.

The best piece i've read on it is this

Irish house prices sky-high due to finance not scarcity

but even that doesn't give a forecast. Do we need to wait for Silicon Valley to implode (since all the jobs in Ireland are vaguely tech or tech-dependent), and are we confident that it actually will? The alternative is that they are successful and the entire world is run on uber/amazon/apple/air bnb etc. , I see that as just as likely.
I don't think it will be housing based, i just think when in the same economy 200kg of wood can be worth more than a few tonnes of bricks and mortar (with its own shed i might add) that there is a level of fantasy taking place somewhere. As for my end is night talk - I see two possible recessions incoming and neither are housing based.

1. Brexit - This is a recession mostly for people who are already poor - agriculture is our main sell to the uk, followed by medical. My GUESS is that UK will go into a dip for a least a few months if they do detatch when they say they are detatching, and soon after will repair themselves by A: devaluing the pound to increase exports, which ireland cant do within the eurozone B: practicing mercantilism, reducing our trade with them long term C: moving to dirtier manufacturing that you'd never get away with in eurozone, becoming a sort of middle class china for europe, which could take a bite out of our medical industry. While it might not be 2008 level carnage, it could be a long period of austerity.

2. Oil based - our economy is much more dependent on oil than it is housing or tech. we are at about 1% electric cars (sales per year, not the actual fleet), only about 1/5th of our electricity (gas/oil are the backbone) is renewable when it comes down to it. Also primary heating of loads of places is kerosene, which is almost airplane fuel while shipping runs on crudes - If, for example, america had for some reason a sour relationship with another country on a whim, or russia, or anyone but europe (which has 1% of oil reserves theoretical) then all of a sudden we could be looking at some kind of horror show. the 1973 oil crisis was something like a quadrupling of prices. reuters had articles this year looking at a 20% increase. Also i think one of these days trump is actually going to realise that oil is finite and have a tantrum in which we are reminded that we are a small energy import dependent european outpost.

Look i'm sure the IT would never put out property articles that assure the market without a shred of self preservation being a motive, but I just see the discrepancy in value of the 'same' thing in a backwater like ireland as a symptom of not being a value based economy, and speculation being as healthy as ever. The housing market might not suffer at all but we are leaning more on oil than we ever have on housing and the oil showdown has to kick off in the next few years. The supply estimate is something like 45 years, we were supposed to stop using it about 3 years ago anyways.
 

ann post

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While i'm saying things that can be quoted in time to come to make me look grievously uninformed, I think electricity or energy rationing of some sort is a possibility in Ireland within the next 5 years. It'll be called something else though.
 

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