Coronavirus: Better Call Sol (3 Viewers)

hugh

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Same, good to hear of the Mrs. Egg improving.



Other news: God help me but i'm feeling sorry for Simon Harris, even though he's Fine Gael.
He does look like he has aged about 10 years in the last few weeks.
 

Cormcolash

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Yeah, thankfully the HSE changed the testing criteria. Still annoyed that having been sick, and quarantined, for two full weeks I have no idea if I have had Covid-19 or not because to have been tested I'd have to have been at death's door.



Unless Aer Lingus cancel the flight you may not be entitled to a refund. Worth holding out as long as possible but the vouchers may turn out to be the best offer...

Under EU regulations airlines must offer passengers the choice of Refund, Re-routing at the earliest time or re-routing at a later date IF the airline cancels the flights (regardless of why the flights are cancelled). But if a passenger chooses to cancel their reservation, or fails to show up for their flight, then the most they may be entitled to from the airline is a refund of airport charges.

More information here COVID-19 Related Advice – Guidance on Regulation EC261/2004.
Just sent this to a friend on facepuke, still gold!
 

Cornu Ammonis

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So assuming social distancing works and cases start to drop, what actually happens in about 2 weeks? or 4 weeks or 6 weeks or whatever? Where do we go from here?
I think you need to adjust your expectations and think about at least 8-10 weeks. I imagine we will keep going as we are with some relaxing of rules - more retailers allowed to do online ordering or click and collect. It won't be a sudden end, the estimates are 6-18 months to get back to "normal life" from what I've seen.
 

hugh

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I've been feeling confident for the last few days about the numbers (i.e. it's not increasing exponentially) but now I'm worried that it's because they haven't tested anything like the numbers that need to be tested and the virus is rampagaing all over the place out of control and we/they have no idea where it is.

Someone persuade me that there's reason to be optimistic ...
 

rettucs

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I've been feeling confident for the last few days about the numbers (i.e. it's not increasing exponentially) but now I'm worried that it's because they haven't tested anything like the numbers that need to be tested and the virus is rampagaing all over the place out of control and we/they have no idea where it is.

Someone persuade me that there's reason to be optimistic ...
they literally said signs are promising.

'they' being the academics and data scientists who are working with the HSE to develop data models predicting future numbers of cases.

the measures we have been taking for the past 3 weeks have been working. That is borne out by the fact that there are very few cases being reported outside of the larger urban areas. Locking us down prevented further spread into those areas.

Friday's increased restrictions were due to hospital capacity, and nothing else. If we had more available ICU beds, or less pressure on them, the numbers of cases being seen day-on-day, by themselves, wouldn't have warranted the stricter measures.

The peak is expected around easter. I'd say they will err on the side of caution and extend the lockdown for an extra week. By the end of that week I would expect the numbers of positive tests being returned to be in high double-figures.

Going back to 'normal' is not something that will happen quickly. It will be a gradual thing, but I'd expect we'll be back up and running again, as a country, by June.

Foreign travel will recommence very gradually. Countries will be graded in terms of how 'safe' they are. This could be awkward for Ireland as we will likely have to close the land border with the north. Will hopefully be temporary.

The US will remain a no-go zone for the remainder of 2020.
 

rettucs

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btw I work for a big data company. We have data scientists who are independently modelling this stuff in their spare time, and what they are concluding, matches with the above, so I'm not entirely pulling all of that out of my hole.
 

hugh

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Thanks all.

It's not so much the increased restrictions that concern me (it's actually really encouraging to me when that happens as it shows we are possibly taking extreme measures before they are absolutely necessary and before things reach absolute crisis point) but the testing thing. A testing centre was temporarily closed down in Cork at the weekend because of lack of equipment. Anecdotal evidence would suggest that it is taking an inordinately long time to get tested (even before they changed the rules). If you don't test enough of the population then you don't really know what's going on and you can do all the data modelling you like, but if the data you are basing your modelling on is flawed then it's meaningless (and I know they are ways of statisticially accounting for error and so on).


But there must be numbers out there (can't find them) about the level of testing that is being done here per head of population compared to other countries? I'm guessing it's a lot better than the UK but nowhere nearly as good as Germany ...

Not bashing the HSE here by the way ... I know they are working flat out on this.

But having said all that ... yes, there are reasons to be optimistic. Thanks.
 

Unicron

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But there must be numbers out there (can't find them) about the level of testing that is being done here per head of population compared to other countries? I'm guessing it's a lot better than the UK but nowhere nearly as good as Germany ...
We are #3 in the world per capita for testing according to this guy. He;s anon but if you read the thread he seems credible.

7.9x more than US
7.1x more than Holland
6.7x more than UK
1.4x more than Germany

 

dudley

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Have a pained tooth, and my dentist is understandably not taking appointments unless patient pain is excruciating, which it isn't, but he very soundly prescribed me an antiobiotic over email.

but this means I know cannot drink during this national worry...
 

rettucs

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Thanks all.

It's not so much the increased restrictions that concern me (it's actually really encouraging to me when that happens as it shows we are possibly taking extreme measures before they are absolutely necessary and before things reach absolute crisis point) but the testing thing. A testing centre was temporarily closed down in Cork at the weekend because of lack of equipment. Anecdotal evidence would suggest that it is taking an inordinately long time to get tested (even before they changed the rules). If you don't test enough of the population then you don't really know what's going on and you can do all the data modelling you like, but if the data you are basing your modelling on is flawed then it's meaningless (and I know they are ways of statisticially accounting for error and so on).


But there must be numbers out there (can't find them) about the level of testing that is being done here per head of population compared to other countries? I'm guessing it's a lot better than the UK but nowhere nearly as good as Germany ...

Not bashing the HSE here by the way ... I know they are working flat out on this.

But having said all that ... yes, there are reasons to be optimistic. Thanks.

what will be interesting to see is what happens once they've cleared the backlog. Who do they decide to test at that point? Or how they decide best to use their resources.

In a way, the numbers of tests carried out each day are moot. For the vast majority of cases, you develop symptoms, you self-isolate, you ring your GP, you get scheduled for a test, you test positive, you continue to self-isolate. So, ideally you're self-isolating, regardless of when you're tested. If you test positive, nothing changes. You don't get any special treatment. You get confirmation and you get added to the statistics. Testing is, in part, a data collection exercise.

Those presenting with more serious symptoms are prioritised. They will be tested soon, and hospitalised if necessary.

I can appreciate the frustration of those complaining about the delays on getting a test, but really, the peace of mind of those people is far less important than the medical care of those with more serious cases.

If we all hole up in our homes for a couple of weeks, don't come into contact with anyone in the community, even if we are asymptomatic carriers, we'll be rid of the virus by the time the lockdown ends.

Calls for greater levels of testing are partly borne out of just wanting this thing to be over sooner rather than later, but, while we're on lockdown, the risks of any of us spreading it, or coming into contact with it, are low.

We'll get there. It'll take a bit more time, but we'll get there.
 

therealjohnny

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Have a pained tooth, and my dentist is understandably not taking appointments unless patient pain is excruciating, which it isn't, but he very soundly prescribed me an antiobiotic over email.

but this means I know cannot drink during this national worry...
That's defeatist talk

 

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