Coronavirus: Better Call Sol (11 Viewers)

egg_

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protect their citizens, how exactly?
But slowing the spread of the virus so that health services can deal with it better, and to give the scientists time to work on a vaccine.

This should be treated in the same way flu is treated
Why are you saying this? What source of insight do you have that means you know more about this than, for example, the Italian government?
 

rettucs

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Why are you saying this? What source of insight do you have that means you know more about this than, for example, the Italian government?
well this is the problem, isn't it. Its hard to know how much of the actions by a govt are motivated by economics, rather than anything else. If you sit on your hands while the world is in a frenzy over, what they believe to be, the zombie apocalypse, that would be disastrous for your tourism, local business, etc, in a way that could be lasting.

and whatever about the Italians, the Americans put Pence in charge of dealing with things. I'd fancy my chances against him in a table quiz.

Agreed on the need to slow it down, but it's inevitable we'll all come in contact with it eventually. Thinking more about what we'll do when people actually have it, seems a more productive use of time to me.

By all accounts every drugs company on the planet are racing to be the first to develop a vaccine. By all accounts, some are very close.
 

Lili Marlene

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What is the death rate for standard flu in China? Comparing the death rate for coronavirus in China to the death rate for flu in the USA seems a bit off.
 

Squiggle

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This is just plain wrong. The common cold is not flu, and flu is not COVID-19



( see How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?)

Also the transmission rate of COVID-19 seems to be substantially higher than the flu
All credibility out the window when you're comparing death rates from a specific coronavirus variant in one country to death rates from a blanket term that covers dozens of other coronavirus strains a completely different country and population.
 

riath

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866BCBDE-D454-4E60-8554-710E8175B61F.jpeg

Similar thing happened to a guy we know. He said he was going to Dublin for a day or two but was with hookers in Eastern Europe and had to come clean when he got home.
 

Squiggle

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"No deaths were reported among mild and severe cases. The fatality rate was 49% among critical cases, and elevated among those with preexisting conditions: 10.5% for people with cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for diabetes, 6.3% for chronic respiratory disease, 6% for hypertension, and 5.6% for cancer. "

This article references the same study egg_ is talking about which is not peer reviewed it should be noted.

"The World Health Organization said on Monday that the fatality rate in Wuhan, China, considered the epicenter of the outbreak, is between 2% and 4%. Outside of Wuhan, it is thought to be closer to 0.7%. "
 

hermie

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What is the death rate for standard flu in China? Comparing the death rate for coronavirus in China to the death rate for flu in the USA seems a bit off.
I think he's significantly underestimating it. Even if you take the lower death rate of 1.4% (which excludes China) the flu (I read) kills 0.001% making it about a thousand times deadlier.
 

Squiggle

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So far most people who have been infected with Covid-19 are in concentrated settings (hospitals, cruise ships) where the population demographic is specifically in the high risk category (old and in poor health), which is also going to significantly skew the numbers... adding the fact that, other than in critical cases, the symptoms are not significantly different from ordinary flu, and most of us would just stay home and sleep that off, not take ourselves off to the nearest hospital. So, infection rates are likely underreported, leading to death rate appearing to be higher than it actually is.

Even SARS, which was FAR more deadly, was overblown... why so much attention to something so much milder. I'd be willing to put money on it that more people have died in Ireland this Winter from Pneumonia than have died in China from COVID-19.

Edit: Pneumonia deaths in Ireland 2009-2018 | Statista Deaths per 100,000 shown in the graph.
 
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flashback

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I think he's significantly underestimating it. Even if you take the lower death rate of 1.4% (which excludes China) the flu (I read) kills 0.001% making it about a thousand times deadlier.
Mortality rate depends on the flu strain. Avian 'flu has a high mortality rate, over 50%? H5N1 is lower, something like 10%. Spanish 'flu, which was absolutely devastating had something only like... 1% mortality rate? I think?

So, yeah, flat quoting mort rates isn't that helpful. (Plus it varies over demographics.)

As much as it hurts to agree with anything the Genius in Chief says, there does seem to be an element of hysteria in some of the press. Putting Mike "Pray The HIV away" Pence in charge is a bold strategy though.
 

Cormcolash

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As far as I know there is no official mortality rate for Covid-19 yet, I think mostly because as mentioned above most concentrations of it have been in specific settings containing a much higher proportion of people that would be more vulnerable to it.
 

egg_

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I hate arguing from authority, FWIW, but IMO it's preposterous to be proclaiming "ah sure COVID-19 is harmless" based on what you find in a cursory google search. It's unlikely you personally are going to die from it, but the containment measures are very likely saving lives, and possibly a great many lives
 

Squiggle

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I reckon it's because people who know a lot more about this shit than us think that mitigation measures are necessary to minimise deaths

What do you reckon?
Every single medical professional I have seen interviewed or questioned has said that they are not concerned, and think that the MEDIA are blowing this out of all proporition and causing widespread, unnecessary, panic.

We've had the same with weather events. Media - country going to be wiped out by hurricaine. Meteorologists - No, it's barely going to be a blow by the time it gets near us. Public - *panics* Airlines (my field of work) - cancel flights proactively. Weather - barely lifting the flags. Airline - but we were told there would be a hurricaine. Meteorologist - don't believe everything you read in the fucking papers.
 

egg_

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Squiggle

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I hate arguing from authority, FWIW, but IMO it's preposterous to be proclaiming "ah sure COVID-19 is harmless" based on what you find in a cursory google search. It's unlikely you personally are going to die from it, but the containment measures are very likely saving lives, and possibly a great many lives
Actually, I am arguing from authority. I work closely with the sector that will probably suffer most from this. I've done much more than a "cursory google search". I'm not arguing that it is harmless, but that it is significantly less harmful than other, known, already present, diseases, and that this hysteria is pointless.
 

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