Climate change global warming natural disaster freak weather etc. (2 Viewers)

[JohnnyRaz]

I keep thinking of that quite famous Eric Hobsbawm book on the 20th century I read a year or two ago; came out in 1994, doesn't mention the internet once (does mention E-mail though) but looking to the future at the end he brings up the upcoming climate crisis of carbon parts per million in the atmosphere.... AFAIK this book was a bestseller at the time, certainly I'd come across it as a standard textbook in various 20th century history courses as an undergrad.

It’s been mainstream science since the early 80s - the disinformation really kicked in from the mid 90s onward after public/political awareness/concern grew. The internet played a big role here I think

Exploiting the legitimate gaps in the original science (I’m talking about stuff like modelling, past temperature records, variation in suns output etc) at first. The fact that we didn’t heat up as quickly as some forcasts predicted (some early models underestimated the oceans capacity to absorb heat and co2) was hopped upon etcetc..

It often think al gore being president in 2000-2004 is one of the most interesting counterfactual/naval gazing - a president who actually believed in global warming, and might just not have buried trillions of dollars fucking up the Middle East..

But maybe it wouldn’t have made a difference

 

[Lili Marlene]

It’s been mainstream science since the early 80s - the disinformation really kicked in from the mid 90s onward after public/political awareness/concern grew. The internet played a big role here I think

Exploiting the legitimate gaps in the original science (I’m talking about stuff like modelling, past temperature records, variation in suns output etc) at first. The fact that we didn’t heat up as quickly as some forcasts predicted (some early models underestimated the oceans capacity to absorb heat and co2) was hopped upon etcetc..

It often think al gore being president in 2000-2004 is one of the most interesting counterfactual/naval gazing - a president who actually believed in global warming, and might just not have buried trillions of dollars fucking up the Middle East..

But maybe it wouldn’t have made a difference

Yeah that Drilled podcast goes into a lot of it, I can't remember the figures but at some point around 1980 BP or whoever did the maths and worked out it'd cost them something like 200 billion dollars to counter climate change, or 10 billion dollars to fund a PR campaign to confuse the public enough where people wouldn't believe in it. So they shut down their research labs and got a weekly column in the New York Times instead. Cool.

Al Gore would have been interesting alright, but who knows, I mean this advert was made in 2008!

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[magicbastarder]

ryan is getting a lot of stick (on twitter, anyway) for his 'free public transport will increase unnecessary journeys' comment, but it's probably worth reading it in its original context:

Transport Costs: 2 Mar 2023: Written answers (KildareStreet.com)

A site about the Houses of the Oireachtas that you can actually follow.

www.kildarestreet.com

i wonder i 'unnecessary journeys' has a dry academic meaning, e.g. journeys that otherwise wouldn't be taken?

i was reading that when the germans introduced the €9 train fare, train journeys increased by 9% but there was just a 3% modal shift from cars.

 

[Space]

ryan is getting a lot of stick (on twitter, anyway) for his 'free public transport will increase unnecessary journeys' comment, but it's probably worth reading it in its original context:

Transport Costs: 2 Mar 2023: Written answers (KildareStreet.com)

A site about the Houses of the Oireachtas that you can actually follow.

www.kildarestreet.com

i wonder i 'unnecessary journeys' has a dry academic meaning, e.g. journeys that otherwise wouldn't be taken?

i was reading that when the germans introduced the €9 train fare, train journeys increased by 9% but there was just a 3% modal shift from cars.

Well the trains would be running anyhow I presume so the 3% down on car use has to be good?

 

[magicbastarder]

Indeed; I probably phrased it that way simply because that's how I saw it phrased. It might just take time for people to change their commuting habits, unless they know the train option is going to become permanent.

 

[taubstumm]

i wonder i 'unnecessary journeys' has a dry academic meaning, e.g. journeys that otherwise wouldn't be taken?

we all know what it means

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[ann post]

He fucked up there. Bríd Smith is a decent representative. He'll be dragged for that for a year to I'd say. In the context of them having reduced fares and increased services already he could have made hay with it too.

Is it that free public transport isn't going to replace car commuting to work (necessary) without putting the right routes in place first that he's trying to say?

 

[ann post]

Well the trains would be running anyhow I presume so the 3% down on car use has to be good?

If they have research to cover it and he's not just shooting from the hip, 3% car use reduction is not that great for 560million euro or whatever it was. Is he trying to say if the same money was spent on few more bus routes the % would be higher.

PBP are gonna make hay with this for sure. I'm just trying to devine was there logic beneath the crap phrasing, or not.

 

[magicbastarder]

My take on it is that if there's budget there to either make PT free, or to make it better, it's a no brainer to spend the money on making it better. Making a substandard service free won't entice many people to change their habits.

 

[Space]

It's kinda pointless making non existent public transport free.

 

[Space]

If they have research to cover it and he's not just shooting from the hip, 3% car use reduction is not that great for 560million euro or whatever it was. Is he trying to say if the same money was spent on few more bus routes the % would be higher.

PBP are gonna make hay with this for sure. I'm just trying to devine was there logic beneath the crap phrasing, or not.

Is the not free public transport costing the German's in the region of 560 million euro?

I've answered my own question. Looks like between 1.5 and 2.5 billion euros.

Germany to introduce €49 ticket for public transport

German transport ministers agreed on a €49 monthly price tag for local public transport throughout Germany with financing issues unresolved, operators warn that service may be disrupted as a result.

www.euractiv.com

Germany eases cost of living crisis with €9 a month public transport ticket

Millions set for summer of cheap travel on all modes of transport

www.theguardian.com

 

[ann post]

Is the not free public transport costing the German's in the region of 560 million euro?

The not free public transport is costing Ireland 560 million euro.
Ryan says making it free would add another 540 million euro.
And the 3% was based on the modal shift in germany.

I think everyone on thumped is sorta converging on the conclusing that Ryan's phrasing was awful, but he was making sense.
I dont see twitter following that level of investigation and coming to the same conclusion.


I would like to see a flat ticket rate like in germany, or like in Dublin with the 90 minute craic, but wouldn't be wildly useful in the Galway without the oranmore / athenry train passing loops going in first.

 

[Space]

The not free public transport is costing Ireland 560 million euro.
Ryan says making it free would add another 540 million euro.
And the 3% was based on the modal shift in germany.

I think everyone on thumped is sorta converging on the conclusing that Ryan's phrasing was awful, but he was making sense.
I dont see twitter following that level of investigation and coming to the same conclusion.


I would like to see a flat ticket rate like in germany, or like in Dublin with the 90 minute craic, but wouldn't be wildly useful in the Galway without the oranmore / athenry train passing loops going in first.

I see. I was basing my discussion of 9% and 3% on MagicB's post so was a little confused when you took my post and added the 540 million. I didn't think MB's mention of those two numbers were from Eamon Ryan's statement given that he said "I was reading that when the germans introduced..." with no mention that Ryan had mentioned the figures. Did Ryan even reference the 9% and 3% in Germany.

I've no interest in discussing what random people on twitter may or not do or have done.

 

[magicbastarder]

the 9% and 3% were german figures, in the wake of them introducing their €9 flat fare; the €540m was the figure Ryan quoted that he'd been told was the minimum it'd cost here to introduce free PT.

 

[ann post]

Did Ryan even reference the 9% and 3% in Germany.

No - I was was just using it in terms of trying to get some yardstick of what it might mean in Ireland.

 

[Space]

No - I was was just using it in terms of trying to get some yardstick of what it might mean in Ireland.

Might have been useful to state that. At least to save me some confusion.

 

[ann post]

In classic Ryan gaffes most likely the unnessecary travels narrative will dominate the week, if not his future.

Meanwhile this also happened today

Government approves Annex of Actions to Climate Action Plan 2023

Government approves Annex of Actions to Climate Action Plan 2023

www.gov.ie

 

[ann post]

Might have been useful to state that. At least to save me some confusion.

Yeah sorry. my conversation tracking was awful because there was a side office discussion about it and i wasnt sure what was digital and what wasnt.

 

[magicbastarder]

In classic Ryan gaffes most likely the unnessecary travels narrative will dominate the week, if not his future.

piled onto the narrative about the internal GP dissent on the eviction decision.

 

[Space]

In classic Ryan gaffes most likely the unnessecary travels narrative will dominate the week, if not his future.

Meanwhile this also happened today

Government approves Annex of Actions to Climate Action Plan 2023

Government approves Annex of Actions to Climate Action Plan 2023

www.gov.ie

So they want an increase in use of public transport but don't at the same time in case any of those journeys are deemed unnecessary. Is it Ryan that gets to decide who's journeys are necessary?

Did you see one of the Green Party TDs finally came out and said GP policy in government is different to regular GP policy. Probably same idea as above. Pure nonsense...