BREXIT (2 Viewers)

Lili Marlene

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Trump is saying its time to make a deal because it's literally the only sentence left in his brain. I hope he does start wading in with some mad ideas though, at least he's not boring. Maybe he can personally broker a new Good Friday Agreement? I'd say he could get the DUP on his side pretty easily - "This is a bad deal Arlene, it's no good."

Is it tinfoil hat-ey to think that this is being purposefully orchestrated? Daddy Vladimir chatting to a secret cabal of shit-stirrers who dispatch orders to the chiefs of the whatever chaos campaign.
All Russia conspiracy stuff is liberal tinfoil hattery, yes.
 
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Bernie Lomax

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Last night in Westminster was unprecedented. Apparently, at a cabinet "huddle" at 6:30 last night, Theresa May hadn't a clue what was going on (or the Tory whip, Julian Smith). A load of ministers voted against the government instruction, which is something that hasn't happened in decades. In effect Theresa May's government has stopped working and no-one knows what to do.

But...

What has come out from last night is that Westminster has voted to never, ever have a "No Deal" situation (not just a No Deal on the 29th March). They've said that they will only leave the EU with "a" Withdrawal Agreement.

That means May will return to Westminster next week with Meaningful Vote #3 (MV3!). This time she's going to give MPs the choice of going with the Withdrawal Agreement or having a very lengthy extension to the Article 50 process (e.g. another two years). This forces the likes of Rees-Mogg and the DUP to agree to the Withdrawal Agreement - because the UK Parliament has explicitly said it does not want a "No Deal". It should also be said the "Malthouse Compromise" (which Nicky Morgan and the ERG agreed on) is also (comprehensively) dead in the water. The ERG/DUP also don't want this to go back to the people, because another referendum will probably result in a (slim) Remain vote. They're now boxed in to agreeing to the Withdrawal Agreement (to get Brexit) or having to settle for a lengthy delay and probable cancellation of Brexit.

The EU *really* don't want a long extension, because people like Orban, Le Pen and Salvini will use Brexit for stirring up the idea the EU is anti-democratic (and their new brand of fascism is democratic). However... they will offer this to May, with a whole lot of caveats - mainly that the British either have a General Election or a Second Referendum (or both). The EU will make a lot of noise about how destructive a lengthy delay will have... which is a sign to British Remainers that although technically they're still welcome, their presence in the EU is poisonous.

This should help May bring in those ERG Tories, who are wavering because they're vaguely human and realise a No Deal is hugely damaging to ordinary people; it'll also help her bring in those Remainer Tories, who don't want to feel like they're poisoning the EU and ignoring "the will of the people".

Although the second Meaningful Vote was rejected by a big majority, the margin of loss was quite a bit less than the first Meaningful Vote.

I think it boils down to three potential outcomes:

1. The Withdrawal Agreement is voted through (very reluctantly) next week. We'll then see a couple of months extension to the Article 50 process and the UK will leave the EU around the end of May. After that, the UK will start free trade talks with the EU which will probably go on for the next decade. The EU favour this because it shows they're respecting the "democratic will of the British people" and that leaving the EU is a really stupid thing to do. It's worth noting that the Nationalist population in Northern Ireland will probably be the majority within the next ten years...

2. MPs (reluctantly) vote for a lengthy delay to the Article 50 process. This will probably result in a General Election in the UK - and probably another one. There may also be another referendum, which remain will probably win. No one is going to be really happy about this, because the far-right nutters in Europe will make a lot about how the EU are betraying the ordinary (white) British voter.

3. The UK Parliament votes against extending the Article 50 process... or something else like that. Westminster and the British government are already completely deadlocked and ineffective, but this would be a death knell. The UK would then automatically leave the EU on the 29th March with no deal, and without an effective government. That would be chaos and, to be honest, it's a genuinely frightening situation.

Something that is certain is we're likely to see the Tories and Labour splitting. You'll see one or two new Centrist parties emerge, and a Nationalist/Brexit/Anti-EU/Anti-Rules/Pro-Capitalist-Bastards emerge and a fully socialist party. This will necessitate the UK changing their first-past-the-post electoral system (which, I believe, is the origin of a lot of these problems in Westminster).

Anyway... that's what I think happened!

It's very unlikely we'll see Brexit Day happening on the 29th March. I'd put my money (sterling, because it's worth fuck all), on the Withdrawal Agreement passing next week.
They done a number 2! Or 3...? I can’t tell which
 

Lili Marlene

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Those of us who aren't sheeple know it's all Soros
#endcorruption
Its just all that "Russia did it" stuff is so... tiresome and childish. Just came across this story of when the US tried to encourage regime change in Cuba via social media (shout out to the irish connection in there),


and now they wont stop whinging about a few Facebook groups barely anyone was a member of.
 

flashback

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Its just all that "Russia did it" stuff is so... tiresome and childish. Just came across this story of when the US tried to encourage regime change in Cuba via social media (shout out to the irish connection in there),


and now they wont stop whinging about a few Facebook groups barely anyone was a member of.
ok, so I wasn't sure if the previous bit was sarcasm.

So you think there's no Svengali figures here at all?

Do you not believe in any of these troll factory stories? You'd be in good company, certainly Glen Greenwald is having none of it.

I'm not convinced at all. But presumably I'm the idiot liberal this sort of story is aimed at.

Do you not think that the idiocy is a bit hard to swallow? I believe Boris/Farage etc believes their story. I still think they get assistance from Putin. No?


Another thing you mentioned is liberal as a (I think) dirty word. I've seen this quite a bit. I thought I was a liberal (although it turns out I'm an individualist anarchist).

Did you mean it as a dirty word?

I dunno man. The older I get the less I know it seems. Chaos breeds.
 

Lili Marlene

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ok, so I wasn't sure if the previous bit was sarcasm.

So you think there's no Svengali figures here at all?

Do you not believe in any of these troll factory stories? You'd be in good company, certainly Glen Greenwald is having none of it.
I certainly believe the troll factories are there, they happened, and they are not the reason Trump won because people vote for their immediate interests, not because of a few four levels removed from reality memes told them some half-truth about Hillary. And also because i skimmed the FBI reports and all the groups/pages had pathetically small memberships/likes.

I'm not convinced at all. But presumably I'm the idiot liberal this sort of story is aimed at.

Do you not think that the idiocy is a bit hard to swallow? I believe Boris/Farage etc believes their story. I still think they get assistance from Putin. No?

Another thing you mentioned is liberal as a (I think) dirty word. I've seen this quite a bit. I thought I was a liberal (although it turns out I'm an individualist anarchist).

Did you mean it as a dirty word?

I dunno man. The older I get the less I know it seems. Chaos breeds.
I'd say Boris and Farage are the most cynical people in existence, a billion times more than an honest clod like Trump. They will happily change their mind on any subject 100% if and when it suits them.

I'm sure Russia is quietly causing a bit of Brexit havoc if it can but no, I don't think they are so powerful as to have some kind of mind-control over the entire populace of the USA and Britain. If they do then sign me up because clearly they're the better power.

Liberal isn't a dirty word, it's just too vague, I should not have used it.


anyway, you're the one there so tell me to shut up and explain why i'm wrong. I'm just yacking away here.
 
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ann post

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I certainly believe the troll factories are there, they happened, and they are not the reason Trump won because people vote for their immediate interests, not because of a few four levels removed from reality memes told them some half-truth about Hillary. And also because i skimmed the FBI reports and all the groups/pages had pathetically small memberships/likes.

I'm sure Russia is quietly causing a bit of Brexit havoc if it can but no, I don't think they are so powerful as to have some kind of mind-control over the entire populace of the USA and Britain. If they do then sign me up because clearly they're the better power.
if they have Trump's and can influence 0.5% of the voting block, that is enough for most elections.
 

flashback

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> Fucking hell, steady on - he's clearly a clod, but ... honest? What?


I don't want to argue Marlene's point for her, but my take would be the Borris Farage crew are quite a lot brighter than Donnie. Donnie genuinely seems to be confused AF in a lot of things, and I think he does believe what he says to an extent. He's just so profoundly stupid that he can be persuaded of anything, so it's almost not his fault.

Borris and Farage (I would say) also think that Brexit miiiight be a good thing, but they're actually able to do some basic reasoning and thought. They know that it's going to cause a lot of pain, and fuck over a lot of people, they know that it's risky, and they know that it could go quite badly wrong.

I don't think they thought they would win the Brexit vote, but now they view this as their career high point, they have arrived at this figurehead position, they know it's very possibly going to be cataclysmicly bad for the UK, they just don't care, they will milk their position without shame to obtain as much wealth as possible. They will then fuck off to somewhere warm. They don't give the remotest of fucks about the UK, or the Ordinary Brits (ie white English people). Even twats like May and God help us Cameron, even Thatcher FFS did think she was doing her best for England. She wasn't thinking "Lol, this might go badly tits up, it's fun in the mean time though and I've got loads of money, I can just fuck off to the Bahamas".


eesh, sorry. Edit. I meant to @Positive Marlene and @egg_ in the above but I'm shit at Thumped
 

flashback

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I certainly believe the troll factories are there, they happened, and they are not the reason Trump won because people vote for their immediate interests, not because of a few four levels removed from reality memes told them some half-truth about Hillary. And also because i skimmed the FBI reports and all the groups/pages had pathetically small memberships/likes.


I'd say Boris and Farage are the most cynical people in existence, a billion times more than an honest clod like Trump. They will happily change their mind on any subject 100% if and when it suits them.

I'm sure Russia is quietly causing a bit of Brexit havoc if it can but no, I don't think they are so powerful as to have some kind of mind-control over the entire populace of the USA and Britain. If they do then sign me up because clearly they're the better power.

Liberal isn't a dirty word, it's just too vague, I should not have used it.


anyway, you're the one there so tell me to shut up and explain why i'm wrong. I'm just yacking away here.
I mean, yeahhh. I'm technically in the US, I'm basically in DC, but I didn't even know what my own politics were until a couple of months ago. I'm not very well informed, and I'm beginning to give up a bit, and focus on, I dunno, Tensorflow and chess. I just dont understand things any more. I don't know what people think, or how they behave. I understand bikes and growing plants. I'm focusing on that pretty much.

I barely understand Billy's summaries. I'm baffled.

I have a feeling that something really important is going on, but I don't trust my own eyes.

For example, these troll factories. I could be persuaded either way. I could be persuaded that they are profoundly dangerous, effective tools of war. That the Russians are, and have been for a while, really good at this type of thing. That they literally can and do go "lol, let's fuck with those tossers a bit more. What's hilarious? Anti-vax? Oh shit, let's do it", and then there's a huge movement against vaccines. And equally I look at Greenwald and so on, and they're saying: no, grow the fuck up.
 

hugh

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For example, these troll factories. I could be persuaded either way. I could be persuaded that they are profoundly dangerous, effective tools of war. That the Russians are, and have been for a while, really good at this type of thing. That they literally can and do go "lol, let's fuck with those tossers a bit more. What's hilarious? Anti-vax? Oh shit, let's do it", and then there's a huge movement against vaccines. And equally I look at Greenwald and so on, and they're saying: no, grow the fuck up.
This is it. Can any of us really come to a definite objective conclusion about this? Does it not boil down to whatever is said in the latest bunch of articles on the internet that we have chosen to believe? If you are not a cybersecurity expert who has been intensely studying this shit for years then that's basically what you are doing.

And then you add in the fact that this very issue is deeply politicized. The leftist/Sanders wing of the democratic party need to claim that the Russians had nothing to do with the election of Trump in order to establish the fact that it was the failure of the policies of the (neo)liberal Obama/Hilary wing of the party. The liberal wing of the party need to claim it had everything to do with the Russians for exactly the opposite reason.

I'd guess the truth lies somewhere in between these two positions but have no idea exactly where.
 

billygannon

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Don't blame the Russians for all this. They are poking around and manipulating Facebook and Twitter, but they're capitalising on underlying problems in Britain and the US.

The Russian government want to cause confusion and division because they want Putin to appear to be this figure of stability and reliability. They've been doing this for years in Russia... for instance one day they'll bring in an anti-homosexuality law, the next they'll come out saying they support gay marriage. The whole point is to create this sense in society that it's all mad and divided, so that the Kremlin becomes this point of certainty.
What these Russian troll-farms are doing is identifying any issue in a country that's divisive and then creating posts that support for both sides of the argument (although mostly to right-wing posts!). They were posting up ads that were both pro and anti Black Lives Matters. It's just to cause confusion, so that Russia appears to be this shining light of stability.

But... the Russians aren't the reason why people voted Trump or for Brexit. They played a part in it, but the causes are much deeper. In fact it's worth considering that the National Enquirer played a huge part in Trump's election.

I was chatting to an analyst in the Irish army who monitors cyber attacks on the state. He said they're always dealing with American and Israeli attacks. I asked him about Russia and he said "oh... yeah... they do too... but it's mostly the US and Israel". Basically the US are always poking around in systems of foreign countries... not to shut stuff down etc... just to keep an eye on things, make sure everything is honky-dory and pro-US.
 

hermie

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Don't blame the Russians for all this. They are poking around and manipulating Facebook and Twitter, but they're capitalising on underlying problems in Britain and the US.

The Russian government want to cause confusion and division because they want Putin to appear to be this figure of stability and reliability. They've been doing this for years in Russia... for instance one day they'll bring in an anti-homosexuality law, the next they'll come out saying they support gay marriage. The whole point is to create this sense in society that it's all mad and divided, so that the Kremlin becomes this point of certainty.
What these Russian troll-farms are doing is identifying any issue in a country that's divisive and then creating posts that support for both sides of the argument (although mostly to right-wing posts!). They were posting up ads that were both pro and anti Black Lives Matters. It's just to cause confusion, so that Russia appears to be this shining light of stability.

But... the Russians aren't the reason why people voted Trump or for Brexit. They played a part in it, but the causes are much deeper. In fact it's worth considering that the National Enquirer played a huge part in Trump's election.

I was chatting to an analyst in the Irish army who monitors cyber attacks on the state. He said they're always dealing with American and Israeli attacks. I asked him about Russia and he said "oh... yeah... they do too... but it's mostly the US and Israel". Basically the US are always poking around in systems of foreign countries... not to shut stuff down etc... just to keep an eye on things, make sure everything is honky-dory and pro-US.
12705
 

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