BREXIT (3 Viewers)

billygannon

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Last night in Westminster was unprecedented. Apparently, at a cabinet "huddle" at 6:30 last night, Theresa May hadn't a clue what was going on (or the Tory whip, Julian Smith). A load of ministers voted against the government instruction, which is something that hasn't happened in decades. In effect Theresa May's government has stopped working and no-one knows what to do.

But...

What has come out from last night is that Westminster has voted to never, ever have a "No Deal" situation (not just a No Deal on the 29th March). They've said that they will only leave the EU with "a" Withdrawal Agreement.

That means May will return to Westminster next week with Meaningful Vote #3 (MV3!). This time she's going to give MPs the choice of going with the Withdrawal Agreement or having a very lengthy extension to the Article 50 process (e.g. another two years). This forces the likes of Rees-Mogg and the DUP to agree to the Withdrawal Agreement - because the UK Parliament has explicitly said it does not want a "No Deal". It should also be said the "Malthouse Compromise" (which Nicky Morgan and the ERG agreed on) is also (comprehensively) dead in the water. The ERG/DUP also don't want this to go back to the people, because another referendum will probably result in a (slim) Remain vote. They're now boxed in to agreeing to the Withdrawal Agreement (to get Brexit) or having to settle for a lengthy delay and probable cancellation of Brexit.

The EU *really* don't want a long extension, because people like Orban, Le Pen and Salvini will use Brexit for stirring up the idea the EU is anti-democratic (and their new brand of fascism is democratic). However... they will offer this to May, with a whole lot of caveats - mainly that the British either have a General Election or a Second Referendum (or both). The EU will make a lot of noise about how destructive a lengthy delay will have... which is a sign to British Remainers that although technically they're still welcome, their presence in the EU is poisonous.

This should help May bring in those ERG Tories, who are wavering because they're vaguely human and realise a No Deal is hugely damaging to ordinary people; it'll also help her bring in those Remainer Tories, who don't want to feel like they're poisoning the EU and ignoring "the will of the people".

Although the second Meaningful Vote was rejected by a big majority, the margin of loss was quite a bit less than the first Meaningful Vote.

I think it boils down to three potential outcomes:

1. The Withdrawal Agreement is voted through (very reluctantly) next week. We'll then see a couple of months extension to the Article 50 process and the UK will leave the EU around the end of May. After that, the UK will start free trade talks with the EU which will probably go on for the next decade. The EU favour this because it shows they're respecting the "democratic will of the British people" and that leaving the EU is a really stupid thing to do. It's worth noting that the Nationalist population in Northern Ireland will probably be the majority within the next ten years...

2. MPs (reluctantly) vote for a lengthy delay to the Article 50 process. This will probably result in a General Election in the UK - and probably another one. There may also be another referendum, which remain will probably win. No one is going to be really happy about this, because the far-right nutters in Europe will make a lot about how the EU are betraying the ordinary (white) British voter.

3. The UK Parliament votes against extending the Article 50 process... or something else like that. Westminster and the British government are already completely deadlocked and ineffective, but this would be a death knell. The UK would then automatically leave the EU on the 29th March with no deal, and without an effective government. That would be chaos and, to be honest, it's a genuinely frightening situation.

Something that is certain is we're likely to see the Tories and Labour splitting. You'll see one or two new Centrist parties emerge, and a Nationalist/Brexit/Anti-EU/Anti-Rules/Pro-Capitalist-Bastards emerge and a fully socialist party. This will necessitate the UK changing their first-past-the-post electoral system (which, I believe, is the origin of a lot of these problems in Westminster).

Anyway... that's what I think happened!

It's very unlikely we'll see Brexit Day happening on the 29th March. I'd put my money (sterling, because it's worth fuck all), on the Withdrawal Agreement passing next week.
 

Lili Marlene

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Great analysis Billy.

Without wanting to sound all big man of history about it, people talk about the weird energy in the air before momentous events like world wars or revolutions and between this, Trump (as an abstract force, not the person), and the growing recognition of complete climate collapse unless something big is changed, I really wonder if we'll all look back at 2016-2019/20-ish as one of those odd phoney-war periods before all hell broke loose.
 

GO

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Good job Billy!

Thats me sorted for Brexit currently
 

rettucs

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I actually think Billy's option 2 might be worst of all, if it inflames the populists against the EU
possibly. However, if the brits end up cancelling brexit I can see the EU still pandering to their issues, somewhat. To mitigate against the right-wing fuckos capitalising on it, it's possible they'll agree to review some of the issues the brits had around immigration, etc, and make changes accordingly. Though it won't appease the most extreme far-right shitbag, it should be received well by remainers and moderate brexiters.

I wouldn't be assuming option 2 is a given if brexit is cancelled.
 

billygannon

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Great analysis Billy.

Without wanting to sound all big man of history about it, people talk about the weird energy in the air before momentous events like world wars or revolutions and between this, Trump (as an abstract force, not the person), and the growing recognition of complete climate collapse unless something big is changed, I really wonder if we'll all look back at 2016-2019/20-ish as one of those odd phoney-war periods before all hell broke loose.
I agree with you. I also think the 2008 crash was another forewarning.
 

Unicron

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I agree with you. I also think the 2008 crash was another forewarning.
With a decade's reflection I really think that was the pivotal event of the century to date. For a long time it felt like it was 9/11 but I think the crash is what's had the most impact. 9/11 really just gave the Americans an excuse to do what they always do.

Admittedly that's a very western centric view. Someone in Syria might feel very different.
 

bogmanfan

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I don't really understand why the idea of a second referendum is so unpalatable. May says it's undermining democracy, but people vote in general elections and change their minds from one party to another all the time. Surely not allowing people to change their minds is anti-democratic. At the time of the vote it was still a very abstract concept - the economic consequences of leave have all become much clearer since.
 

ann post

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I don't really understand why the idea of a second referendum is so unpalatable.
Essentially its because the idea of a referendum is unpalatable. They just aren't in the habit of doing them and are having the debate part after the vote rather than before it. Its a big icy wall of cognitive dissonance.
 

bogmanfan

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Can't beat a politician for hypocrisy. Second referendum is deemed undemocratic while asking parliament to vote on the same agreement twice (and possible three, four five times) is ok?
 

flashback

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It's interesting to see how things seem to keep getting increasingly fucked up without any real resolution.

I'm seeing this in the US too, daily "wtf, how does this one get sorted out", and then it doesn't get sorted out, it rambles on and is almost immediately overshadowed by the next "Wait... *what*?"

It's like one of those Central American soap operas, increasingly unlikely scenarios leading to the daily cliffhanger, leading to another unlikely scenario.

Is it tinfoil hat-ey to think that this is being purposefully orchestrated? Daddy Vladimir chatting to a secret cabal of shit-stirrers who dispatch orders to the chiefs of the whatever chaos campaign.

You've got Special Donald helping out after being asked to by Farage.


Farage has to know that bringing Individual #1 to the party is not going to help anyone, it just looks like ever escalating shit-stirring.
 

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