BREXIT (4 Viewers)

[billygannon]

The DUP did something really stupid last week while Westminster debated this Withdrawal Agreement. They said they'd vote against the Withdrawal agreement, but they'd continue the confidence-and-supply deal they've got with the Tories. Of course they would. They want Westminster to run Northern Ireland directly and they're getting a heap of money from the British government through this deal.

However... this gave May a message. The only issue about this Withdrawal agreement is this Irish backstop. If it was just Britain, then we'd be well on the way with discussing future trade deals etc.

What the DUP have done is basically admit they're stopping an "orderly Brexit". May is a pragmatist... so is Philip Hammond and most of the Tory party. They're arseholes, but they're at least human arseholes, unlike the Public School Boy lizards like Cameron, Johnson, Rees-Mogg etc.

If she called a referendum in Northern Ireland... it'd be linked to the Good Friday Agreement rather than this EU Withdrawal Agreement... then she puts the onus on the DUP having to convince people in Northern Ireland that leaving the EU and having a hard border is a good thing. She... and the Tories... will wash their hands of it and let the DUP fight it out.

That leaves Corbyn in a real dilemma because he either has to side with the DUP - who are basically against everything he believes - or side with Irish nationalists... which he has done before... but it looks bad to the Labour UKippers he's trying to win over.

I'm thinking this NI referendum would be along the lines of "do you want a customs border in the Irish sea or not"?

I mean.. the fact there's no NI assembly is causing a heap of shit right now. It's genuinely bad that Martin McGuinness isn't around - although Foster is like an angry block of wood, so I don't think you can really negotiate or compromise with her.

 

[egg_]

Anyone else feeling kinda sorry for Teresa May at this stage?

 

[ann post]

If she called a referendum in Northern Ireland... it'd be linked to the Good Friday Agreement rather than this EU Withdrawal Agreement... then she puts the onus on the DUP having to convince people in Northern Ireland that leaving the EU and having a hard border is a good thing. She... and the Tories... will wash their hands of it and let the DUP fight it out.

Time might be an issue though. legislating for a referendum would run really close to the deadline, and could throw all the border cards up in the air. I don't think its impossible but the timeline would put her in worse negotiating position in the interim.

 

[therealjohnny]

Anyone else feeling kinda sorry for Teresa May at this stage?

nope

Opinion: If you're feeling sorry for Theresa May, think of this

Don’t cry for Theresa May. This Brexit crisis is her fault | Jonathan Freedland

 

[Burgerbarbaby]

Why is Jeremy Corbyn trying to woo the DUP?

That's fascinating. Every day, in every way, proving his inadequacy

 

[Lili Marlene]

That's fascinating. Every day, in every way, proving his inadequacy

I'd be wary of anything the new statesman says about Corbyn

 

[Burgerbarbaby]

Anyone else feeling kinda sorry for Teresa May at this stage?

Fuck no. Ok, she's an unstoppably determined functionary who is doing her job in the face of a lot of opportunistic resistance, more power to her. But beyond that she's a woman entirely without vision leading a country who really could have done with some clarity and honesty over the last two years.

Kathy Sheridan: Theresa May deserves neither our pity nor our admiration

 

[Burgerbarbaby]

I'd be wary of anything the new statesman says about Corbyn

Aye, I'm getting a bang of confirmation bias of it
Still think it's reasonably fair tho

 

[ann post]

Anyone else feeling kinda sorry for Teresa May at this stage?

kiinnnda but no.

What do we have to offer the people of the north? 100 years of bitterness and hatred?


Meanwhile this shit happily goes on:

Global super-rich bought 153 homes for at least £20m each in past year

+100 years of everyone having a 'really funny northern accent they can do'.

Also i was thinking Dublin is getting pretty hyped for being an unliveable ghost town of multi million euro investments soon. like at least people occasionally sleep in air bnbs.

 

[egg_]

Yes, her situation is impossible, but her repeated miscalculations made it inevitable

Jaysis. I feel even sorrier for her now - it's even worse when it's all your own fault

 

[therealjohnny]

Jaysis. I feel even sorrier for her now - it's even worse when it's all your own fault

Its not just her incompetence about Brexit. There's also things like the crazy rise in foodbanks and the Windrush scandal that she is responsible for.

 

[therealjohnny]

p.s. fuck her

 

[ilovehoovering]

The lies and liars of Brexit | Coffee House

 

[therealjohnny]

ok, maybe a little bit sorry for her

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[Unicron]

Anyone else feeling kinda sorry for Teresa May at this stage?

No, but I do think if they are going to do Brexit the deal she's bringing them the most sensible deal she can get

 

[nooleen]

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[Space]

Lets not forget the peado scandals that she helped disappear that may have been very close to her father who conveniently had his Wikipedia page dissappear.

Theresa May's Father

 

[billygannon]

She's a Tory, so no - no sympathy.

 

[Burgerbarbaby]

She's a Tory, so no - no sympathy.

Stupid question / Your theory about the NI referendum - surely that would push the whole thing back dangerously close to the deadline, but it doesn't fix all the other reservations the other MPs have?

 

[billygannon]

Stupid question / Your theory about the NI referendum - surely that would push the whole thing back dangerously close to the deadline, but it doesn't fix all the other reservations the other MPs have?

I mean... it's just a theory! It's more likely she'll be forced to resign.

It will push the thing back to the deadline - so would this second referendum/People's Vote.

From what I understand if another referendum were to be called the EU would magically be able to push that leave date until the results of the referendum are known.

Alternatively there could be a snap election... but unless there's a party elected who are clearly going to cancel Article 50, then the EU won't go back to the table.

The main deadline for the EU is May (the month, not the politician!) - when the European Parliament elections happen. Basically they don't want a situation where Britain has MEPs for a short period of time (I believe the EU forced May to issue Article 50 because of this). The absolute deadline for this is July... because that's when the new EU parliament would sit. The UK would argue that although they're leaving, legally they're entitled to have representation. It also affects the 7 year budget of the EU... so the EU will be flexible with the leave date... but only to a point.

May isn't going to call another referendum (although someone else might). Another referendum across the UK is likely to be indecisive: remain would need something like a 66% vote with voter turnout similar to the previous one. I think a second referendum would be a vote for remain, but not large enough.

However...

Northern Ireland and Scotland are, and always have been, very pro-Remain.

Scotland had an independence referendum in 2014 and they voted to remain in the UK.

The Good Friday Agreement has a provision around consent... there is a stipulation that Northern Ireland will remain part of the UK as long as the people of Northern Ireland want to be. There's always been a promise under the GFA that there would be, at some point, a referendum on NI being in the UK.

Brexit has kind of come unexpectedly - it's kind of forced this question earlier than anyone thought. Theresa May has read correctly that the DUP are not really speaking on behalf of the people of Northern Ireland.

I'm thinking that in the absence of an Assembly (which Westminster are really pissed of with the DUP about), they could just ask the people of NI what they want directly.

I don't know if it'll be about re-uniting with Ireland... but it could be about asking if NI wants to be quasi-independent of the UK. That may mean an independent Northern Ireland... like a free state that has the Queen as the head of state. That'd mean they could still use Sterling, the NHS, the British judicial system etc. - but they'd stay in the EU. That would be a massive boost to the Northern Irish economy... like loads of English and Scottish companies would start moving operations there...
The DUP would have an impossible time convincing people that the alternative is better.

Very few people in England realised how Brexit would affect Ireland... and most of the Leavers see Ireland as just being this annoying snag holding them back.

Like... if Northern Ireland is out of the picture, then Brexit would happen quite quickly.

It's be Brexit... not UKexit!

Oh yeah... there will definitely be a General Election in the UK next year. I've no idea how that will turn out. There's effectively four/five parties in Westminster and the First Past the Post system means that whoever gets in to government will be only representing about 30% of the electorate.

Whatever happens Britain is kind of fucked. It's like the Suez crisis, but worse.