General Election 24th May (2 Viewers)

[carbide]

I think there's a good chance of FG getting a seat back there (former Garret Fitzgerald territory) and there's a good chance of SF ousting McDowell. I'd say McDowell's chances are about fifty-fifty - if he gets through it will be on the last count.

i must say, i can't wait to watch the count in that constituency (and have been practising my victory dance in case he does lose his seat). is any other as exciting?

 

[#10-7]

is anyone else going to sit and watch it all unfold tomorrow?

i certainly will be.. i might not get out of my pj's..

 

[carbide]

is anyone else going to sit and watch it all unfold tomorrow?

i certainly will be.. i might not get out of my pj's..

(oops, spamming this thread)

yep, i'm going to stock up on food and plant myself in front of the tv, doing my best impression of cookiemonster-watching-the-match, but for serious real world stuff and stuff. innit.

 

[#10-7]

(oops, spamming this thread)

yep, i'm going to stock up on food and plant myself in front of the tv, doing my best impression of cookiemonster-watching-the-match, but for serious real world stuff and stuff. innit.

at the moment the prediction for dublin north -> 1FG, 1FF, 1G, 1 Soc is probably quite accurate, but i can see a lot of transfer swopping between the left, and not so much between the ff / fg camps.

i'd say Joe Corr from greens might benefit hughly from transfers, and Brendan Ryan has to be in with a shout also.

 

[Unicron]

So if those newstalk figures are half right and Rabbitte keeps his promise to get Bertie out what's the next government going to look like? FG/Green/Lab would need 5 or 6 independants to prop them up.

I could see Murphy in Kildare North supporting them. Maybe Finian McGrath? Lowry? If Joe was the only socialist then they might go looking to him for help, they do have an national agenda but if they only had the one TD he'd hardly be in a strong position to have their policies implemented. He might have a fight with the greens over bin charges though, can't see the socialists coming in if they do get that second seat.

 

[classic seanc]

is anyone else going to sit and watch it all unfold tomorrow?

i certainly will be.. i might not get out of my pj's..

I'll be working and possibly headin to B'sloe after, so I doubt I'll get a chance.
I can't see any change in my home constituency, even though it's a new one (Roscommon-South Leitrim), FF/FF/FG. I might stay here for friday night, that's where the real drama is. McDowell VS Cop on: The battle between good and evil.

 

[MDR]

So if those newstalk figures are half right and Rabbitte keeps his promise to get Bertie out what's the next government going to look like? FG/Green/Lab would need 5 or 6 independants to prop them up.

I could see Murphy in Kildare North supporting them. Maybe Finian McGrath? Lowry? If Joe was the only socialist then they might go looking to him for help, they do have an national agenda but if they only had the one TD he'd hardly be in a strong position to have their policies implemented. He might have a fight with the greens over bin charges though, can't see the socialists coming in if they do get that second seat.

Again from politics.ie (good discussion of election on the forum there) there seems to be support for Enda kenny as taoiseach from Tony Gregory, Tom Parlon (shock!), Bev Flynn (said she will support taoiseach from Mayo), Lowry and a couple of others I can't remember. So there is the prospect of a minority Govt: a rainbow supported by Independents, or a FF/PD supported through SF abstentions/support in the vote for Taoiseach.

 

[classic seanc]

If Kenny is from Mayo right, what's his view on Shell to Sea and all that stuff?

 

[maims bond]

If Kenny is from Mayo right, what's his view on Shell to Sea and all that stuff?

He's been shamefully quiet on it, which obviously means he'd love to see shell by the seashore.

 

[snakybus]

Dublin South East is my constituency

I'm thinking they'll look at my vote and go "Oh him, he's a sensible sort - let's not bother counting and just go with his choices"

 

[CitySickness]

Dublin South East is my constituency

I'm thinking they'll look at my vote and go "Oh him, he's a sensible sort - let's not bother counting and just go with his choices"

Breakingnews.ie now seem to be saying this is exactly what's going to happen:
http://www.breakingnews.ie/election/news/mhkfcwaueymh/

 

[snakybus]

Breakingnews.ie now seem to be saying this is exactly what's going to happen:
http://www.breakingnews.ie/election/news/mhkfcwaueymh/

proper order and all

here's what Paddy Power predict - interesting. Do they have insider information?

quite close odds though

FF/LAB 9-4
FF/Green 10-3
FF/PDs 10-3
FG/LAB/Green 10-3
FF/PD/Greens 8-1
FF/SF 9-1
FG/LAB 14-1

 

[classic seanc]

FF/PD/Greens would be a good bet.

 

[Unicron]

FF/PD/Greens would be a good bet.

Given the level of contempt that McDowell has reserved for them over the course of the campaign?

 

[classic seanc]

Sorry, I meant FF/Green. But the PD's will tag along if they can yeah, no question. Then Bertie will smooth out the creases. It wouldn't last though.

 

[It Will Never Last]

at the moment the prediction for dublin north -> 1FG, 1FF, 1G, 1 Soc is probably quite accurate, but i can see a lot of transfer swopping between the left, and not so much between the ff / fg camps.

i'd say Joe Corr from greens might benefit hughly from transfers, and Brendan Ryan has to be in with a shout also.

Reckon Newstalk have it right.

Ryan will not carry his brother's first preferences, think he'll be lucky to get 4000 tbh. Unless the Greens managed their vote very well, then Corr will be eliminated early doors, which will screw up transfers for the Lab/FG/Green alternative towards the latter stages and will probably cost Ryan his chance of a seat.

I reckon the PD vote will transfer en masse to FF with some going to Sargent. SF transfer will split about 25/25/25 Greens/SP/Labour with the remaining 25% split between the FF trio and David O'Connor if he survives.

O'Connor's first preferences could be interesting, I know nothing about him.


If Newstalk are wrong, then the shock could be two FF seats. They managed their vote superbly in 2002, with all three candidates polling roughly the same, surviving the distribution of eliminated FG and SF votes among others, and edging out Clare Daly with Wright and Gleeson. If they can do the same again...Daly needs close to a full quota in first preferences IMO.

 

[Buzzo]

Fuckin amazing. I'm takin a break in work here and 'Hello Mary Lou (Goodbye heart)' is blasting from a van outside, presumably Mary Lou McDonald scrambling for the last of the votes before the stations close. Earlier I heard someone playing 'I am the One and Only' by Chesney Hawks off their van. I *love* this shit. If I was running, I'd have Iron Maiden's Phantom of the Opera blasting out and I'd be running up and down the back of a truck doing tumbles and high jumps in my last ditch attempt.

 

[IFF]

i voted at 5:15 today and the polling booth in ardee was empty

 

[La La]

barse. reports are saying it looks like bertie and co are back in the armchair of power.

 

[the strange guy]

THIRD TERM MUTHAFUCKAS
I'd like to think I had a personal hand in bringing Bertie to power again by not being in the country to vote him out. It would have went from 41.6% to 1.6% effortlessly. One man, one vote my hoop.