The Russian invasion of Ukraine (7 Viewers)

[pete]

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[rettucs]

EVERYTHING IS FINE

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[Deadmanposting]

EVERYTHING IS FINE

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Russian army apparently shitting themselves in Donbas

"send more jocks pls"

 

[Space]

No one wanted this war except him.

And all the arms manufacturers across the "west".

 

[Deadmanposting]

And all the arms manufacturers across the "west".

The ripple effect is wild
Even the pacifists are tooling up

The Germans
The Japanese

 

[Space]

The ripple effect is wild
Even the pacifists are tooling up

The Germans
The Japanese
View attachment 16265

All out war is just what the global economy needs, keep everyone's mind off the climate catastrophe and all.

 

[JohnnyRaz]

And all the arms manufacturers across the "west".

they may not have want or foreseen it, but there sure as fuck the winners in this situation.

 

[Space]

they may not have want or foreseen it, but there sure as fuck the winners in this situation.

Of they wanted it. It's in their business model to want wars.

Obviously Putin started this one..

 

[Lili Marlene]

There is a (conspiracy-ish) theory that it must indicate something that this happened less than a year after the troops were pulled from Afghanistan, and that military money has to go somewhere. I'm not sure how much I buy it though, it's not like the military planners have trouble finding places to put weapons at the best of times.

 

[JohnnyRaz]

Interesting Former Soviet states eye opportunities as Russia suffers Ukraine rout

 

[pete]

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[Lili Marlene]

Does this thread make sense?

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[taubstumm]

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makes sense up until the last couple of posts, the “major defeat is looming for Putin” stuff. the russians have suffered something more like an embarrassment than a defeat — or you could say that they have suffered a propaganda defeat but a military minor setback (this is not an attempt to defend the russians, just trying to be realistic).

Putin is playing a longer game, and as long as the russians can stabilise their lines, he’s probably fine with just letting everything grind onwards. western coverage has overlooked the fact that these two offensives have been utterly brutal for the ukrainians, tens of thousands of casualties, hospitals overflowing, etc. It also tends to overlook the fact that the russians are more interested in grinding down the ukrainian army (i.e., the “demilitarisation” part of the justification for the invasion) than they are in gaining territory. not to say that they aren’t *also* interested in territory, but that’s not the main priority for them right now.

however, if the ukrainians manage to launch a third offensive, and have some success with it (probably an attempt to push towards mariupol and break the russian land bridge), then the pressure for some major escalation will start to build.

Putin will presumably do almost anything to avoid a general mobilisation. that would be the last step, or perhaps the second-last step, before nuclear war.

 

[rettucs]

makes sense up until the last couple of posts, the “major defeat is looming for Putin” stuff. the russians have suffered something more like an embarrassment than a defeat — or you could say that they have suffered a propaganda defeat but a military minor setback (this is not an attempt to defend the russians, just trying to be realistic).

Putin is playing a longer game, and as long as the russians can stabilise their lines, he’s probably fine with just letting everything grind onwards. western coverage has overlooked the fact that these two offensives have been utterly brutal for the ukrainians, tens of thousands of casualties, hospitals overflowing, etc. It also tends to overlook the fact that the russians are more interested in grinding down the ukrainian army (i.e., the “demilitarisation” part of the justification for the invasion) than they are in gaining territory. not to say that they aren’t *also* interested in territory, but that’s not the main priority for them right now.

however, if the ukrainians manage to launch a third offensive, and have some success with it (probably an attempt to push towards mariupol and break the russian land bridge), then the pressure for some major escalation will start to build.

Putin will presumably do almost anything to avoid a general mobilisation. that would be the last step, or perhaps the second-last step, before nuclear war.

you'd have to think he's trying to buy time to make this last into the winter. Thats when the lack of russian oil and gas will hit the west the hardest. I don't think it'll be the bargaining chip he thinks it'll be though.

 

[Lili Marlene]

makes sense up until the last couple of posts, the “major defeat is looming for Putin” stuff. the russians have suffered something more like an embarrassment than a defeat — or you could say that they have suffered a propaganda defeat but a military minor setback (this is not an attempt to defend the russians, just trying to be realistic).

Putin is playing a longer game, and as long as the russians can stabilise their lines, he’s probably fine with just letting everything grind onwards. western coverage has overlooked the fact that these two offensives have been utterly brutal for the ukrainians, tens of thousands of casualties, hospitals overflowing, etc. It also tends to overlook the fact that the russians are more interested in grinding down the ukrainian army (i.e., the “demilitarisation” part of the justification for the invasion) than they are in gaining territory. not to say that they aren’t *also* interested in territory, but that’s not the main priority for them right now.

however, if the ukrainians manage to launch a third offensive, and have some success with it (probably an attempt to push towards mariupol and break the russian land bridge), then the pressure for some major escalation will start to build.

Putin will presumably do almost anything to avoid a general mobilisation. that would be the last step, or perhaps the second-last step, before nuclear war.

Thank you!

Oy, that is some grim realpolitik.

 

[Deadmanposting]

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Good read.
He lays it out fairly steady there
Just can't get my brain around Putin being under real threat - even in the case of a military defeat
He still has the ability to control the narrative, so he can spin some story that keeps him in power


Most everything we've been told by neutral sources is holding true
That Russia would invade, even when it seemed unimaginable.
That their massive numerical advantage would lead to a massive gains in the east.
That their military is utterly dysfunctional, hollowed out by corruption, incapable of joint warfare and devoid of morale.

The exception is that everyone from Washington to Moscow thought this would be a short war.

Now we have the high tech weapons the west have been surprised into sending, the indomitable Ukrainian will to fight, and surprising European unity.

Maybe military defeat will become slower than the shock gains we've seen recently, but the parameters of defeat are all there, they just have to play out.


Putin and his crew just have to figure a story to sell defeat as victory, or turn it into grist for more grievance and therefore control.
This is a country where you can ban use of the word 'war' and throw anyone you like out a fucking window. This guy's rat brain will figure a survival strategy.
It wouldn't be the first time he conjured a bullshit narrative up out of whole cloth.

 

[JohnnyRaz]

makes sense up until the last couple of posts, the “major defeat is looming for Putin” stuff. the russians have suffered something more like an embarrassment than a defeat — or you could say that they have suffered a propaganda defeat but a military minor setback (this is not an attempt to defend the russians, just trying to be realistic).

Putin is playing a longer game, and as long as the russians can stabilise their lines, he’s probably fine with just letting everything grind onwards. western coverage has overlooked the fact that these two offensives have been utterly brutal for the ukrainians, tens of thousands of casualties, hospitals overflowing, etc. It also tends to overlook the fact that the russians are more interested in grinding down the ukrainian army (i.e., the “demilitarisation” part of the justification for the invasion) than they are in gaining territory. not to say that they aren’t *also* interested in territory, but that’s not the main priority for them right now.

however, if the ukrainians manage to launch a third offensive, and have some success with it (probably an attempt to push towards mariupol and break the russian land bridge), then the pressure for some major escalation will start to build.

Putin will presumably do almost anything to avoid a general mobilisation. that would be the last step, or perhaps the second-last step, before nuclear war.

I think the degree to which its a minor setback really depends on how likely you think it is that the Russians will get that territory back, not to mention equipment etc. in the medium term. In a matter of a week they've taken more territory back than the russians took in 2 months of brutal, costly (on both sides admittedly) fighting in the east earlier in the summer.

Agree that short of a complete Russian collapse, its unlikely to be the 'begining of the end though' - while the Ukranian's have more and more fancy firepower, I doubt they have the (literal) boots on the ground to completely drive the russian's out in a matter of weeks.

The morale/propaganda aspect can't be overstated though - it will give the Ukrainian's belief that they can do this,

Still a long way to go - and Putin has nothing to gain by pulling back for sure.

 

[ann post]

I was watching some youtube that laid out the shape of the counter offensive. All text book kinda stuff but the using of posh missiles to remove russian supply lines is kettling the russians, and when the ground troups roll they are retreating in directions pre decided by the counter offensive which is how they opened up a line to the border so quick. they are pushing them back, but also funnelling them down certain tunnels which really stamps on the pschology - like 'we have to leave, and we have to leave like sheep get to leave one pen and go to another'.

 

[Deadmanposting]

And just to state the obvious here, the big gains show Ukraine’s supporters in Europe that the war can be won.
The story that the war for Ukraine is some endless quagmire was wearing down on the willingness to stay with sanctions, to weather the energy disruption, to keep sending military assistance.

All those things are a somewhat easier sell now that it shows the tide can possibly be turned.
A long cold winter and a static frontline would have seen some definite shakiness, even in the US.

 

[Deadmanposting]

Actually a bit wild to see Putin at that yoke with Xi and he's saying we understand you have "questions and concerns" about Ukraine and we're here to provide that
And Xi not even saying the word 'Ukraine', but laying it out how China supports Kazakhstan's sovereignty - like don't get any more invasion ideas, pal

The power dynamic completely one way
Putin like a supplicant, desperately needing Xi, and yet useful only to Xi for as long as he deems that necessary

Not used to seeing that from an alpha dog like Vlad

We're just a few years out from him playing the US president like he was a needy boyfriend