тхеодоре кацзынски
Well-Known Member
Not long now (8th of April at the latest) so I suppose we could do with a thread.
http://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Paddy-Power-December-2015-Poll-Report.pdf
The latest opinion poll has FG on 28, Labour on 9, FF on 20, SF on 18, Independent/Others on 23 and the Greens on 2 with 13% undecided.
Big falls obviously for FG and Labour since 2011, FG seem quietly confident they'll regain much of what they lost with some in the party even speculating they may pull a Tories and win an overall majority (they won't). Labour seem to be in major trouble, while they may see a boost in the run up to the election I suspect they'll be much weakened as opposed to last time out. Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail are both up on 2011 and we may well see SF as the opposition party if things go well for them on the day.
Of the new parties, I don't expect a whole lot. The SDs should see all three of their current incumbents returned (although there are some doubts around Donnelly) but their new crop doesn't inspire much hope. Renua will probably see Lucinda returned with Timmins and Flanagan rather more doubtful. Outside of that, and in common with the SDs, I wouldn't be too confident of them gaining much. Shane Ross's Independent Alliance will see Lord Ross returned as number one in Dublin Rathdown, I can't speak for the rest of their current TD's but former Green Paul Gogarty may get back in under their umbrella. I'm not sure at all about the various iterations of the Socialists/PbP etc so will leave them be for now, anyone else who is more knowledgeable can fill in the gap.
As for the next government? I'll go with FG/Labour/Renua and maybe a few independents to make up the numbers. Alternately we may see a good enough showing for SF/FF that they can cobble together a coalition, again with the support of various independents. Either way, the new government will need a strong mandate or we could be heading back to the early 80s with a series of elections in quick succession, probably the last thing the country needs right now.
(Forgive me for any glaring errors in the above, I just sat down and typed.)
http://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Paddy-Power-December-2015-Poll-Report.pdf
The latest opinion poll has FG on 28, Labour on 9, FF on 20, SF on 18, Independent/Others on 23 and the Greens on 2 with 13% undecided.
Big falls obviously for FG and Labour since 2011, FG seem quietly confident they'll regain much of what they lost with some in the party even speculating they may pull a Tories and win an overall majority (they won't). Labour seem to be in major trouble, while they may see a boost in the run up to the election I suspect they'll be much weakened as opposed to last time out. Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail are both up on 2011 and we may well see SF as the opposition party if things go well for them on the day.
Of the new parties, I don't expect a whole lot. The SDs should see all three of their current incumbents returned (although there are some doubts around Donnelly) but their new crop doesn't inspire much hope. Renua will probably see Lucinda returned with Timmins and Flanagan rather more doubtful. Outside of that, and in common with the SDs, I wouldn't be too confident of them gaining much. Shane Ross's Independent Alliance will see Lord Ross returned as number one in Dublin Rathdown, I can't speak for the rest of their current TD's but former Green Paul Gogarty may get back in under their umbrella. I'm not sure at all about the various iterations of the Socialists/PbP etc so will leave them be for now, anyone else who is more knowledgeable can fill in the gap.
As for the next government? I'll go with FG/Labour/Renua and maybe a few independents to make up the numbers. Alternately we may see a good enough showing for SF/FF that they can cobble together a coalition, again with the support of various independents. Either way, the new government will need a strong mandate or we could be heading back to the early 80s with a series of elections in quick succession, probably the last thing the country needs right now.
(Forgive me for any glaring errors in the above, I just sat down and typed.)