Geopolitics (1 Viewer)

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Been meaning to start such a thread for a while now, seen the video below and am finally getting around to it.

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Short summary: Russia offered up Syria if America would drop sanctions and abandon Ukraine, a deal turned down by the American administration hence the Russian air campaign in Syria which may yet take in Iraq.

Europe for its part is, as usual, sitting on the sidelines and generally siding with America where needs be. If the EU wants to be a serious player internationally they'll need a centralised foreign policy bureaucracy but, due to the member states still valuing their sovereignty, that's a way off yet. Instead we'll see individual or grouped member states intervening as and where they see necessary.

Elsewhere, China is, for the most part, limited to its immediate neighbourhood and is for now satisfied with that. As they increase their military capability they'll spread further afield with interesting ramifications. India could potentially become a global player but that's not gonna happen in the immediate future.
 
Russia offered up Syria if America would drop sanctions and abandon Ukraine, a deal turned down by the American administration hence the Russian air campaign in Syria which may yet take in Iraq.
It's profoundly depressing that Russia would choose to intervene in prolonging this awful war.
 
It's profoundly depressing that Russia would choose to intervene in prolonging this awful war.

I think their intervention may shorten it- the West will come to terms with Assad not being toppled and a diplomatic solution may be arrived at. Had Russia not intervened it may just have dragged on indefinitely, Assad can't win it but nor can the rebels.
 
It looks more like Putin chose this time exactly because Assad had been suffering all these loses recently. Everything else that Putin had tried to help him had failed. So Russia sent in the air force.
Hopes seem quite low in Vienna right now and no one on any side has indicated that this intervention will shorten the war.
The sad thing is that there are villages and towns getting bombed that had thus far escaped serious involvement in the war. It hasn't just lengthened the war, it's broadened it.
Just an awful turn of events, I think.
Can't really speak to the wider Sunni/Shia Saudi/Iran struggles.

We're probably talking about two things. Lots of people are interested in the wider chess match. I am far more interested in the peace talks tbh.
 
I think Europe and the US have somewhat softened their stance that "Assad must go" due to Iran and Russia intervening, there's more hope now of a diplomatic solution than there was six months ago. Ideally that would mean finding some of these elusive 'moderate rebels', bringing them to the table and agreeing to destroy ISIS before free and fair elections are held. In the meantime Russia will likely look for long term leases on Tartus and the airfield (Latika I think) so that they can maintain a presence post Assad.

Your last paragraph is true, I personally try not think about the individual tragedies. Heartless as it is, I'm more interested in the big picture.
 
The EU is still primarly only an econimic union and one that even is arguably dysfunctional and increasinly undemocratic also it is worth to note many european countries still maintain there own currency
 
The US/UK relationship with Bahrain is in marked contrast to their Syria approach.

Bahraini uprising of 2011 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Similarly...

"But unlike the other Arab Spring flashpoints, Bahrain’s unrest unfolds a few hundred yards from the gates of the Naval Support Activity Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, with some 6,200 sailors, civilians and family members.

Yet thanks to realpolitik and the imperative to safeguard American strategic interests in the Arabian Gulf, U.S. policymakers find themselves on the opposite side of the protesters, backing an undemocratic regime that continues to brutalize its citizens."

With Bahrain home to 5th Fleet, US faces dilemma over crackdown on protests
 
It's like a big internet fight, where you can only be on one side or the other.

You can be on the side of truth- all countries are out for themselves and will do whatever they think necessary. America is currently the world power so they can do more than others. Russia and China are certainly trying though.
 
The EU is still primarly only an econimic union and one that even is arguably dysfunctional and increasinly undemocratic also it is worth to note many european countries still maintain there own currency

Economic power still has a lot of clout. Look at how the EU brought many of the former Warsaw pact/Soviet states in from the cold. Even today with the ongoing crisis its still a force for change in the region, Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Turkey (amongst others) all wish to join, if the EU can get them to moderate their worst human rights violations in pursuit of membership it'll be an admirable accomplishment.
The EU missed a trick by not making it mandatory for the 2004 accession states to adopt the euro. Still, Poland (and others) are surely thanking their lucky stars they weren't forced into it.
 
I've been looking at this stuff not as a hobby for about 3 years now. I just see every single story as this now:

Humans kill Humans in bid to stop Humans Killing Humans.
 
Putin calls Turkey 'accomplices of terrorists' after Russian jet shot down - live updates

Hard to disagree with Putins assessment of Turkey here.
This incident is ridiculously stupid, God knows what the Turks were thinking. I don't expect a direct military response by Russia but they'll certainly be looking to prevent anymore Turkish aircraft coming into Syria and will likely step up their bombing of the various rebel groups in Syria. Beyond that, they've been active in Istanbul killing Chechen rebels, it wouldn't surprise me if people allied to Erdogan start dying, maybe not immediately but Russia are certainly adept at playing the long game.
 
Putin calls Turkey 'accomplices of terrorists' after Russian jet shot down - live updates

Hard to disagree with Putins assessment of Turkey here.
This incident is ridiculously stupid, God knows what the Turks were thinking. I don't expect a direct military response by Russia but they'll certainly be looking to prevent anymore Turkish aircraft coming into Syria and will likely step up their bombing of the various rebel groups in Syria. Beyond that, they've been active in Istanbul killing Chechen rebels, it wouldn't surprise me if people allied to Erdogan start dying, maybe not immediately but Russia are certainly adept at playing the long game.

Today is one of the worst days of twitter ever, people treating this like it's the fucking cuban missile crisis.

Do we know who's airspace it was over yet?
 
Today is one of the worst days of twitter ever, people treating this like it's the fucking cuban missile crisis.

Do we know who's airspace it was over yet?

I'm glad I deleted Twitter, awful place.
From what I've seen it had crossed into Turkish airspace (for about 5 seconds) but was hit and crashed in Syrian territory. The two pilots parachuted out but were shot by rebels on the ground who later took down a Russian chopper out searching for the pilots. The rebels can expect to take a pounding for the next few days I would think.
 
Putin calls Turkey 'accomplices of terrorists' after Russian jet shot down - live updates

Hard to disagree with Putins assessment of Turkey here.
This incident is ridiculously stupid, God knows what the Turks were thinking. I don't expect a direct military response by Russia but they'll certainly be looking to prevent anymore Turkish aircraft coming into Syria and will likely step up their bombing of the various rebel groups in Syria. Beyond that, they've been active in Istanbul killing Chechen rebels, it wouldn't surprise me if people allied to Erdogan start dying, maybe not immediately but Russia are certainly adept at playing the long game.

Turkey told Russia not to bomb Turkmens. They had the Russian ambassador around last week, basically telling him "Bomb who you want, just not our lads"
Russia then sends a plane into Turkish airspace.
 
Turkey told Russia not to bomb Turkmens. They had the Russian ambassador around last week, basically telling him "Bomb who you want, just not our lads"
Russia then sends a plane into Turkish airspace.

Russia is operating in Syria following a request from Assad, the Turks may not like who is being bombed but shooting down a jet is extremely stupid. An image released by the Turks shows the jet was operating in Syria and briefly flew over a part of Turkey that juts into Syria. Yes they violated Turkish airspace but shooting down the jet of a country that you're not at war with is crazy.
 

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